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MOTROL,2013,Vol 15, ʋ5, 139-143 ɈɊɂȿɇɌɂɊɈȼɈɑɇɕȿ ɉɊɈȽɇɈɁɕ ɏȺɊȺɄɌȿɊɂɋɌɂɄ ɋɄɈɊɈɋɌɂ ȼȿɌɊȺ ȼ ȿȼɊɈɉȿ ɋ ɍɑȿɌɈɆ ɂɁɆȿɇɑɂȼɈɋɌɂ ɊȺɋɉɊȿȾȿɅȿɇɂə ɉɈȼȿɊɏɇɈɋɌɇɕɏ ɌȿɆɉȿɊȺɌɍɊ ɋȿȼȿɊɇɈɃ ȺɌɅȺɇɌɂɄɂ ɇȺ ɉɊɂɆȿɊȿ ɋȿȼȿɊɇɈȽɈ ɉɊɂɑȿɊɇɈɆɈɊɖə ɏɨɥɨɩɰɟɜ Ⱥɥɟɤɫɚɧɞɪ, Ⱥɤɫɟɧɨɜɚ Ⱥɥɟɤɫɚɧɞɪɚ ɋɟɜɚɫɬɨɩɨɥɶɫɤɢɣ ɧɚɰɢɨɧɚɥɶɧɵɣ ɬɟɯɧɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ ɭɧɢɜɟɪɫɢɬɟɬ ɝ. ɋɟɜɚɫɬɨɩɨɥɶ ɭɥ. ɍɧɢɜɟɪɫɢɬɟɬɫɤɚɹ 33 aksenova-aleksandra@list.ru Ⱥɧɧɨɬɚɰɢɹ. ɇɚ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɟ ɪɟɩɪɟɡɟɧɬɚɬɢɜɧɵɯ ɩɭɧɤɬɨɜ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɝɨ ɉɪɢɱɟɪɧɨɦɨɪɶɹ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɧɨ, ɱɬɨ ɭɱɟɬ ɩɪɢ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨ-ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɦɨɞɟɥɟɣ ɦɟɠɝɨɞɨɜɨɣ ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɚɧɨɦɚɥɢɣ SST ɜɵɹɜɥɟɧɧɵɯ ɚɤɜɚɬɨɪɢɣ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɣ Ⱥɬɥɚɧɬɢɤɢ, ɩɨɡɜɨɥɹɟɬ ɨɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɥɹɬɶ ɷɮɮɟɤɬɢɜɧɭɸ ɨɰɟɧɤɭ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɟɣ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɫ ɭɩɪɟɠɞɟɧɢɹɦɢ ɧɟ ɦɟɧɟɟ 3 ɥɟɬ. Ʉɥɸɱɟɜɵɟ ɫɥɨɜɚ: ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɟ, ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɶ ɜɟɬɪɚ, ɩɨɜɟɪɯɧɨɫɬɧɵɟ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɚɤɜɚɬɨɪɢɣ, ɋɟɜɟɪɧɚɹ Ⱥɬɥɚɧɬɢɤɚ, ɦɨɞɟɥɶ, ɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɹ, ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɹ. ȼȼȿȾȿɇɂȿ ɂɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɹɜɥɹɸɬɫɹ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɵɦɢ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɚɦɢ ɷɮɮɟɤɬɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɞɟɣɫɬɜɭɸɳɢɯ ɜɟɬɪɨɜɵɯ ɷɥɟɤɬɪɨɫɬɚɧɰɢɣ ɢ ɜɨ ɦɧɨɝɨɦ ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɹɸɬ ɬɟɯɧɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ ɨɛɥɢɤ ɩɪɨɟɤɬɢɪɭɟɦɵɯ [1, 12]. ɉɨɷɬɨɦɭ ɫɨɜɟɪɲɟɧɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɦɟɬɨɞɢɤ ɢɯ ɞɨɥɝɨɫɪɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɚɤɬɭɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɨɣ ɧɟ ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɮɢɡɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɝɟɨɝɪɚɮɢɢ ɢ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɢ, ɧɨ ɢ ɜɟɬɪɨɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɤɢ. ȼ ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɢɢ ɫ ɪɚɡɪɚɛɨɬɚɧɧɵɦ ȼɫɟɦɢɪɧɨɣ Ɇɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɨɪɝɚɧɢɡɚɰɢɟɣ ɇɚɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɢɟɦ ɩɨ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɟ ɨɛɪɚɛɨɬɤɢ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ (ȼɆɈ ʋ485), ɨɞɧɢɦ ɢɡ ɜɢɞɨɜ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɨɜ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ ɹɜɥɹɸɬɫɹ ɨɪɢɟɧɬɢɪɨɜɨɱɧɵɟ ɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɟ. ɉɪɢ ɢɯ ɪɚɡɪɚɛɨɬɤɟ ɨɰɟɧɢɜɚɸɬ ɧɚɢɛɨɥɟɟ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɵɟ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤ ɩɨɞɨɛɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ, ɜ ɛɭɞɭɳɟɦ, ɨɬɫɬɨɹɳɟɦ ɨɬ ɧɚɫɬɨɹɳɟɝɨ ɧɚ ɟɞɢɧɢɰɵ ɦɟɫɹɰɟɜ - ɥɟɬ. ɂɦɟɧɧɨ ɬɚɤɢɟ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɵ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɹɸɬ ɧɚɢɛɨɥɶɲɢɣ ɢɧɬɟɪɟɫ ɫ ɬɨɱɤɢ ɡɪɟɧɢɹ ɩɪɨɟɤɬɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɜɟɬɪɨɜɵɯ ɷɥɟɤɬɪɨɫɬɚɧɰɢɣ. ɉɪɢ ɷɬɨɦ ɤ ɱɢɫɥɭ ɜɚɠɧɟɣɲɢɯ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɹɜɥɹɸɬɫɹ ɟɟ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɟ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ. ɉɈɋɌȺɇɈȼɄȺ ɁȺȾȺɑɂ ɋɨɝɥɚɫɧɨ ɫɨɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɦ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɢɹɦ ɨ ɡɚɤɨɧɨɦɟɪɧɨɫɬɹɯ ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟɧɧɨ-ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɨɣ ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɩɪɢɡɟɦɧɨɦ ɫɥɨɟ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɵ [11, 13], ɞɚɧɧɵɣ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫ, ɩɪɨɢɫɯɨɞɹɳɢɣ ɧɚɞ ɬɨɣ ɢɥɢ ɢɧɨɣ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɟɣ, ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɦɧɨɝɨɮɚɤɬɨɪɧɵɦ. ɋɭɳɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɟ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɟ ɧɚ ɟɝɨ ɨɫɨɛɟɧɧɨɫɬɢ ɨɤɚɡɵɜɚɸɬ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɸɳɢɯ ɫɨɫɬɚɜɥɹɸɳɢɯ ɨɛɳɟɣ ɰɢɪɤɭɥɹɰɢɢ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɵ, ɜɵɡɜɚɧɧɵɟ ɫɨɜɦɟɫɬɧɵɦ ɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɟɦ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ, ɤɪɭɩɧɨɦɚɫɲɬɚɛɧɵɯ ɢ ɦɟɫɬɧɵɯ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ. Ʉ ɱɢɫɥɭ ɜɚɠɧɟɣɲɢɯ ɤɪɭɩɧɨɦɚɫɲɬɚɛɧɵɯ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɧɨɣ ɰɢɪɤɭɥɹɰɢɢ ɜ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɧɵɯ ɪɟɝɢɨɧɚɯ ȿɜɪɨɩɵ ɨɬɧɨɫɢɬɫɹ ɬɟɩɥɨɨɛɦɟɧ ɫ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɨɣ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɧɵɯ ɭɱɚɫɬɤɨɜ ɩɨɜɟɪɯɧɨɫɬɢ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɣ Ⱥɬɥɚɧɬɢɤɢ, ɮɨɪɦɢɪɭɸɳɢɣ ɩɨɥɟ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɧɨɝɨ ɞɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɜɨ ɜɫɟɦ ȿɜɪɨ-Ⱥɬɥɚɧɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɦ ɪɟɝɢɨɧɟ [10, 8]. ɉɨɬɨɤɢ ɬɟɩɥɚ, ɩɨɫɬɭɩɚɸɳɢɟ ɜ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɭ ɫ ɩɨɜɟɪɯɧɨɫɬɢ ɞɚɧɧɨɝɨ ɪɟɝɢɨɧɚ Ɇɢɪɨɜɨɝɨ ɨɤɟɚɧɚ, ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɹɸɬɫɹ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟɦ ɟɝɨ ɩɨɜɟɪɯɧɨɫɬɧɵɯ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪ (ɞɚɥɟɟ SST), ɮɨɪɦɢɪɭɸɳɟɝɨɫɹ ɫ ɭɱɚɫɬɢɟɦ ɟɝɨ ɩɨɜɟɪɯɧɨɫɬɧɵɯ ɨɤɟɚɧɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɬɟɱɟɧɢɣ, ɬɟɩɥɨɫɨɞɟɪɠɚɧɢɟ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɢɡɦɟɧɹɟɬɫɹ ɩɪɢ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹɯ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɚ [7]. ȼɚɠɧɟɣɲɢɦɢ ɫɪɟɞɢ ɧɢɯ ɹɜɥɹɸɬɫɹ ɬɟɱɟɧɢɹ, ɨɛɪɚɡɭɸɳɢɟ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɵɣ ɫɭɛɬɪɨɩɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ ɚɧɬɢɰɢɤɥɨɧɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɵɣ ɫɭɛɩɨɥɹɪɧɵɣ ɰɢɤɥɨɧɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ ɤɪɭɝɨɜɨɪɨɬɵ [2, 14]. Ɇɨɧɢɬɨɪɢɧɝ ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ SST ɛɨɥɶɲɢɧɫɬɜɚ ɚɤɜɚɬɨɪɢɣ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɣ Ⱥɬɥɚɧɬɢɤɢ, ɱɟɪɟɡ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɩɪɨɯɨɞɹɬ ɭɩɨɦɹɧɭɬɵɟ ɬɟɱɟɧɢɹ, ɨɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɫɨ ɜɬɨɪɨɣ ɩɨɥɨɜɢɧɵ XIX ɜɟɤɚ, ɚ ɟɝɨ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɵ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɵ ɜ ɜɢɞɟ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɯ ɪɹɞɨɜ ɚɧɨɦɚɥɢɣ ɢɯ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ, ɨɫɪɟɞɧɟɧɧɵɯ ɩɨ ɤɜɚɞɪɚɬɚɦ ɪɚɡɦɟɪɨɦ 5ɨɯ5ɨ, ɜ [15]. Ⱦɚɧɧɵɟ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɟ ɪɹɞɵ ɩɨɥɭɱɟɧɵ ɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɪɟɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ, ɜɵɩɨɥɧɟɧɧɵɯ ɧɚ ɦɧɨɝɨɱɢɫɥɟɧɧɵɯ ɩɟɪɟɫɟɤɚɜɲɢɯ ɢɯ ɫɭɞɚɯ. Ɉɧɢ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɵ ɜ ɂɧɬɟɪɧɟɬɟ ɜ ɫɜɨɛɨɞɧɨɦ ɞɨɫɬɭɩɟ, ɱɬɨ ɩɨɡɜɨɥɹɟɬ ɢɯ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɬɶ ɜɨ ɦɧɨɝɢɯ ɡɚɞɚɱɚɯ ɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɢ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ. Ɉɫɧɨɜɧɵɦ ɦɟɬɨɞɨɦ ɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɦɧɨɝɨɮɚɤɬɨɪɧɵɯ ɩɪɢɪɨɞɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɦɟɬɨɞ ɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɢ, ɩɪɟɞɥɨɠɟɧɧɵɣ Ʉ. ɉɢɪɫɨɧɨɦ ɜ 1908 ɝ. [3]. ȼ ɡɚɞɚɱɚɯ ɢɯ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɞɚɧɧɵɣ ɦɟɬɨɞ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɢɦ ɥɢɲɶ ɜ ɫɥɭɱɚɟ, ɟɫɥɢ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɵ, ɭɱɢɬɵɜɚɟɦɵɯ ɜ ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɚɪɝɭɦɟɧɬɨɜ ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɸɳɢɯ ɭɪɚɜɧɟɧɢɣ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɢ, ɜ ɛɭɞɭɳɟɦ, ɞɥɹ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɝɨ ɪɚɡɪɚɛɚɬɵɜɚɸɬɫɹ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɵ, ɨɤɚɠɭɬɫɹ ɢɯ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɵɦɢ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɚɦɢ. ȼ ɩɪɨɬɢɜɧɨɦ ɫɥɭɱɚɟ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ, ɞɨɫɬɚɬɨɱɧɨ ɬɨɱɧɨ ɨɩɢɫɵɜɚɸɳɢɟ ɞɨɫɬɭɩɧɭɸ ɩɪɟɞɵɫɬɨɪɢɸ ɬɚɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ, ɩɪɢ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɢ ɞɥɹ ɨɰɟɧɤɢ ɢɯ ɫɨɫɬɨɹɧɢɣ ɜ ɦɨɦɟɧɬɵ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɜ ɧɟɟ ɧɟ ɜɯɨɞɹɬ, ɦɨɝɭɬ ɞɚɜɚɬɶ ɫɤɨɥɶ ɭɝɨɞɧɨ ɛɨɥɶɲɢɟ ɨɲɢɛɤɢ. ɉɨɫɤɨɥɶɤɭ ɦɟɬɨɞɢɤɢ ɜɵɹɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɩɨɞɨɛɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ ɜ ɨɛɳɟɦ ɫɥɭɱɚɟ ɞɨ ɫɢɯ ɩɨɪ ɧɟ ɪɚɡɪɚɛɨɬɚɧɵ, ɩɪɢ ɩɨɫɬɪɨɟɧɢɢ ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɸɳɢɯ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɨɜ ɭɱɢɬɵɜɚɸɬ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɵ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɹɜɥɹɥɢɫɶ ɏɨɥɨɩɰɟɜ Ⱥɥɟɤɫɚɧɞɪ, Ⱥɤɫɟɧɨɜɚ Ⱥɥɟɤɫɚɧɞɪɚ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɵɦɢ ɧɚ ɜɫɟɣ ɞɨɫɬɭɩɧɨɣ ɩɪɟɞɵɫɬɨɪɢɢ. ɗɬɨ ɞɚɟɬ ɚɞɟɤɜɚɬɧɵɟ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɵ ɥɢɲɶ ɩɪɢ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɢ, ɱɬɨ ɢɡɭɱɚɟɦɵɣ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɫɬɚɰɢɨɧɚɪɧɵɦ. Ɍɚɤ ɤɚɤ ɜ ɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɢ ɦɧɨɝɢɟ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɭɟɦɵɟ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɵ ɬɚɤɨɜɵɦɢ ɡɚɜɟɞɨɦɨ ɧɟ ɹɜɥɹɸɬɫɹ, ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɚɦ, ɪɚɡɪɚɛɨɬɚɧɧɵɦ ɩɨɞɨɛɧɵɦ ɫɩɨɫɨɛɨɦ ɩɪɚɤɬɢɤɢ ɧɟ ɞɨɜɟɪɹɸɬ [4]. ȼ ɩɨɥɧɨɣ ɦɟɪɟ ɷɬɨ ɨɬɧɨɫɢɬɫɹ ɢ ɤ ɬɚɤɨɦɭ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɭ, ɤɚɤ ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɶ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɬɨɦ ɢɥɢ ɢɧɨɦ ɪɟɝɢɨɧɟ ȿɜɪɨɩɵ, ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤɢ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɣ ɜɚɪɶɢɪɭɸɬ ɜɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɢɟ ɬɨɝɨ, ɱɬɨ ɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɩɨɬɟɩɥɟɧɢɹ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɚ ɢɡɦɟɧɹɸɬɫɹ ɨɫɨɛɟɧɧɨɫɬɢ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ SST ɜ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɣ Ⱥɬɥɚɧɬɢɤɟ. Ɋɟɲɟɧɢɟ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɟɦɨɣ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɵ ɭɫɥɨɠɧɹɟɬ ɢ ɬɨ, ɱɬɨ ɨɛɳɟɟ ɱɢɫɥɨ ɤɜɚɞɪɚɬɨɜ, ɜ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɚɧɨɦɚɥɢɣ SST ɧɚ ɭɱɢɬɵɜɚɟɦɨɦ ɨɬɪɟɡɤɟ ɩɪɟɞɵɫɬɨɪɢɢ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɨ ɤɨɪɪɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɵ ɫ ɢɡɭɱɚɟɦɵɦ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɦ, ɦɨɠɟɬ ɩɪɟɜɨɫɯɨɞɢɬɶ ɞɥɢɧɭ ɢɦɟɸɳɢɯɫɹ ɧɟɩɪɟɪɵɜɧɵɯ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɯ ɪɹɞɨɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɨɜ ɪɟɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ. Ʉ ɬɨɦɭ ɠɟ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ SST ɜ ɤɚɠɞɨɦ ɤɜɚɞɪɚɬɟ ɦɨɝɭɬ ɨɤɚɡɵɜɚɬɶ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɟ ɧɚ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɟɦɵɣ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫ ɩɪɢ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɧɵɯ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹɯ ɭɩɪɟɠɞɟɧɢɹ. ȼɵɛɨɪ ɫɪɟɞɢ ɩɨɞɨɛɧɵɯ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ ɧɚɢɛɨɥɟɟ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɵɯ, ɨɫɧɨɜɵɜɚɹɫɶ ɧɚ ɨɞɧɢɯ ɥɢɲɶ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹɯ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɨɜ ɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɢ ɢɦɟɸɳɢɯɫɹ ɢɯ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɯ ɪɹɞɨɜ, ɫ ɢɡɭɱɚɟɦɵɦ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɦ, ɞɚɥɟɤɨ ɧɟ ɜɫɟɝɞɚ ɨɛɟɫɩɟɱɢɜɚɟɬ ɩɪɢɟɦɥɟɦɭɸ ɚɞɟɤɜɚɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɭɱɢɬɵɜɚɸɳɢɯ ɢɯ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɨɜ. Ɉɞɧɢɦ ɢɡ ɪɟɝɢɨɧɨɜ ȿɜɪɨɩɵ, ɜ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɦ ɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɟ ɜɟɬɪɨɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɤɢ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɧɚɢɛɨɥɟɟ ɚɤɬɭɚɥɶɧɵɦ, ɚ ɫɨɜɟɪɲɟɧɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɦɟɬɨɞɢɤ ɞɨɥɝɨɫɪɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɹɟɬ ɨɳɭɬɢɦɵɣ ɩɪɚɤɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ ɢɧɬɟɪɟɫ, ɨɬɧɨɫɢɬɫɹ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɟ ɉɪɢɱɟɪɧɨɦɨɪɶɟ. Ⱦɚɧɧɵɣ ɪɟɝɢɨɧ ɪɚɫɩɨɥɨɠɟɧ ɧɚ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɉɪɢɱɟɪɧɨɦɨɪɫɤɨɣ ɧɢɡɦɟɧɧɨɫɬɢ ɢ ɜɤɥɸɱɚɟɬ ɸɠɧɵɟ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ ɍɤɪɚɢɧɵ ɢ Ⱥɜɬɨɧɨɦɧɭɸ Ɋɟɫɩɭɛɥɢɤɭ Ʉɪɵɦ. ȼɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɢɟ ɫɜɨɟɝɨ ɝɟɨɝɪɚɮɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɩɨɥɨɠɟɧɢɹ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɦɢ ɝɢɞɪɨɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɦɢ ɪɟɫɭɪɫɚɦɢ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɡɚɩɚɫɚɦɢ ɬɪɚɞɢɰɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɷɧɟɪɝɨɧɨɫɢɬɟɥɟɣ ɞɚɧɧɵɣ ɪɟɝɢɨɧ ɧɟ ɨɛɥɚɞɚɟɬ, ɱɬɨ ɜɵɡɵɜɚɟɬ ɩɨɜɵɲɟɧɧɵɣ ɢɧɬɟɪɟɫ ɤ ɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɸ ɜ ɧɟɦ ɧɟɬɪɚɞɢɰɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɜɢɞɨɜ ɷɥɟɤɬɪɨɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɤɢ, ɢ ɩɪɟɠɞɟ ɜɫɟɝɨ, ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɭɸɳɢɯ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɸ ɜɟɬɪɚ. ɍɱɢɬɵɜɚɹ ɢɡɥɨɠɟɧɧɨɟ, ɨɛɴɟɤɬ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɹ - ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɩɪɢɡɟɦɧɨɦ ɫɥɨɟ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɵ ɜ ɪɟɝɢɨɧɚɯ ȿɜɪɨɩɵ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ SST ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɣ Ⱥɬɥɚɧɬɢɤɢ. ɉɪɟɞɦɟɬɨɦ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɹɜɥɹɥɢɫɶ ɨɫɨɛɟɧɧɨɫɬɢ ɨɪɢɟɧɬɢɪɨɜɨɱɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɨɜ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɩɪɢɡɟɦɧɨɦ ɫɥɨɟ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɵ ɪɟɝɢɨɧɨɜ ȿɜɪɨɩɵ, ɪɚɡɪɚɛɨɬɚɧɧɵɯ ɫ ɭɱɟɬɨɦ ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ SST ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɣ Ⱥɬɥɚɧɬɢɤɢ, ɧɚ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɟ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɝɨ ɉɪɢɱɟɪɧɨɦɨɪɶɹ. ɐɟɥɶɸ ɪɚɛɨɬɵ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɪɚɡɪɚɛɨɬɤɚ ɦɟɬɨɞɢɤɢ ɩɨɫɬɪɨɟɧɢɹ ɨɪɢɟɧɬɢɪɨɜɨɱɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɨɜ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɩɪɢɡɟɦɧɨɦ ɫɥɨɟ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɵ ɪɟɝɢɨɧɨɜ ȿɜɪɨɩɵ, ɭɱɢɬɵɜɚɸɳɢɯ ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɶ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ SST ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɣ Ⱥɬɥɚɧɬɢɤɢ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɨɰɟɧɤɚ ɬɨɱɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɨɞɨɛɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɨɜ, ɧɚ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɟ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɧɵɯ ɩɭɧɤɬɨɜ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɝɨ ɉɪɢɱɟɪɧɨɦɨɪɶɹ. ɎȺɄɌɂɑȿɋɄɂɃ ɆȺɌȿɊɂȺɅ ɂ ɆȿɌɈȾɂɄȺ ɂɋɋɅȿȾɈȼȺɇɂə Ⱦɥɹ ɞɨɫɬɢɠɟɧɢɹ ɭɤɚɡɚɧɧɨɣ ɰɟɥɢ ɪɟɲɟɧɵ ɫɥɟɞɭɸɳɢɟ ɡɚɞɚɱɢ: 1. ȼɵɛɨɪ ɧɚ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɝɨ ɉɪɢɱɟɪɧɨɦɨɪɶɹ ɩɭɧɤɬɨɜ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɩɪɢ ɢɡɭɱɟɧɢɢ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɩɪɢɡɟɦɧɨɦ ɫɥɨɟ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɵ ɞɚɧɧɨɝɨ ɪɟɝɢɨɧɚ ɦɨɝɭɬ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɬɶɫɹ ɤɚɤ ɪɟɩɪɟɡɟɧɬɚɬɢɜɧɵɟ. 2. ȼɵɹɜɥɟɧɢɟ ɫɪɟɞɢ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɧɵɯ ɚɤɜɚɬɨɪɢɣ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɣ Ⱥɬɥɚɧɬɢɤɢ ɬɟɯ, ɦɟɠɝɨɞɨɜɵɟ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ SST ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɜ ɛɥɢɠɚɣɲɢɟ ɝɨɞɵ ɫ ɧɚɢɛɨɥɶɲɟɣ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶɸ ɫɨɯɪɚɧɹɬ ɫɜɨɸ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɨɫɬɶ, ɤɚɤ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɟɣ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɪɟɩɪɟɡɟɧɬɚɬɢɜɧɵɯ ɩɭɧɤɬɚɯ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɝɨ ɉɪɢɱɟɪɧɨɦɨɪɶɹ. 3. Ɋɚɡɪɚɛɨɬɤɚ ɨɪɢɟɧɬɢɪɨɜɨɱɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɨɜ ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɟɣ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɪɟɩɪɟɡɟɧɬɚɬɢɜɧɵɯ ɩɭɧɤɬɚɯ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɝɨ ɉɪɢɱɟɪɧɨɦɨɪɶɹ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɨɰɟɧɤɚ ɢɯ ɬɨɱɧɨɫɬɢ. ɉɨɫɤɨɥɶɤɭ ɩɪɢɡɟɦɧɵɣ ɫɥɨɣ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɵ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɨɞɧɢɦ ɢɡ ɤɨɦɩɨɧɟɧɬɨɜ ɥɚɧɞɲɚɮɬɚ, ɜ ɯɨɞɟ ɞɚɧɧɨɝɨ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɩɪɢ ɜɵɛɨɪɟ ɪɟɩɪɟɡɟɧɬɚɬɢɜɧɵɯ ɩɭɧɤɬɨɜ ɧɚ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɝɨ ɉɪɢɱɟɪɧɨɦɨɪɶɹ ɭɱɢɬɵɜɚɥɚɫɶ ɫɯɟɦɚ ɥɚɧɞɲɚɮɬɧɨɝɨ ɪɚɣɨɧɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɍɤɪɚɢɧɵ [9]. ȼ ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɢɢ ɫ ɧɟɣ ɥɚɧɞɲɚɮɬɧɵɣ ɤɨɦɩɥɟɤɫ ɞɚɧɧɨɝɨ ɪɟɝɢɨɧɚ ɨɛɪɚɡɭɸɬ ɥɚɧɞɲɚɮɬɧɵɟ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ ɘɠɧɨ-ɫɬɟɩɧɨɣ ɩɨɞɡɨɧɵ ɋɬɟɩɧɨɣ ɥɚɧɞɲɚɮɬɧɨɣ ɡɨɧɵ ɍɤɪɚɢɧɵ. ɍɱɢɬɵɜɚɹ ɷɬɨ ɧɚ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɤɚɠɞɨɣ ɢɡ ɷɬɢɯ ɩɨɞɡɨɧ ɜɵɛɪɚɧɨ ɩɨ ɨɞɧɨɦɭ ɪɟɩɪɟɡɟɧɬɚɬɢɜɧɨɦɭ ɩɭɧɤɬɭ, ɪɚɫɩɨɥɨɠɟɧɢɟ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɩɪɢɜɟɞɟɧɨ ɜ ɬɚɛɥɢɰɟ 1. ɉɪɢ ɜɵɹɜɥɟɧɢɢ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ, ɫɩɨɫɨɛɧɵɯ ɜ ɛɥɢɠɚɣɲɢɟ ɝɨɞɵ ɫ ɧɚɢɛɨɥɶɲɟɣ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶɸ ɫɨɯɪɚɧɢɬɶ ɫɜɨɸ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɨɫɬɶ, ɩɪɟɞɩɨɥɚɝɚɥɨɫɶ, ɱɬɨ ɤ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɵɦ ɨɬɧɨɫɹɬɫɹ ɬɟ, ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɚɹ ɫɜɹɡɶ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɫ ɢɡɭɱɚɟɦɵɦ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɨɣ ɫ ɞɨɫɬɨɜɟɪɧɨɫɬɶɸ ɧɟ ɧɢɠɟ 0.99. Ʉɚɤ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɚɹ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤɚ ɫɜɹɡɢ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɥɫɹ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬ ɩɚɪɧɨɣ ɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɢ ɮɪɚɝɦɟɧɬɨɜ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɯ ɪɹɞɨɜ ɫɨɩɨɫɬɚɜɥɹɟɦɵɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ, ɜɤɥɸɱɚɸɳɢɯ ɩɨ 22 ɱɥɟɧɚ. ɗɬɨ ɩɨɡɜɨɥɢɥɨ ɩɪɢ ɨɰɟɧɤɟ ɞɨɫɬɨɜɟɪɧɨɫɬɢ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɜɵɜɨɞɚ ɨ ɟɟ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɨɫɬɢ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɢɬɶ ɤɪɢɬɟɪɢɣ ɋɬɶɸɞɟɧɬɚ [5]. ɈɊɂȿɇɌɂɊɈȼɈɑɇɕȿ ɉɊɈȽɇɈɁɕ ɏȺɊȺɄɌȿɊɂɋɌɂɄ ɋɄɈɊɈɋɌɂ ȼȿɌɊȺ Ɍɚɛɥɢɰɚ 1. Ɋɚɫɩɨɥɨɠɟɧɢɟ ɪɟɩɪɟɡɟɧɬɚɬɢɜɧɵɯ ɩɭɧɤɬɨɜ ɧɚ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɝɨ ɉɪɢɱɟɪɧɨɦɨɪɶɹ Table 1. Location of representative points in the Northern Black Sea Coast ʋ 1 2 3 4 5 6 Ʌɚɧɞɲɚɮɬɧɚɹ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɶ Ⱦɧɟɫɬɪɨɜɫɤɨ - Ȼɭɝɫɤɚɹ ɧɢɡɦɟɧɧɚɹ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɶ ɇɢɠɧɟɛɭɝɫɤɨ - Ⱦɧɟɩɪɨɜɫɤɚɹ ɧɢɡɦɟɧɧɚɹ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɶ Ɍɚɪɯɚɧɤɭɬɫɤɚɹ ɜɨɡɜɵɲɟɧɧɚɹ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɶ ɐɟɧɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɤɪɵɦɫɤɚɹ ɜɨɡɜɵɲɟɧɧɚɹ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɶ Ʉɟɪɱɟɧɫɤɚɹ ɯɨɥɦɢɫɬɨ-ɝɪɹɞɨɜɚɹ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɶ ɉɪɢɫɢɜɚɲɫɤɨ-ɉɪɢɚɡɨɜɫɤɚɹ ɧɢɡɦɟɧɧɚɹ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɶ Ɋɟɲɟɧɢɟ ɨ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɨɫɬɢ ɫɜɹɡɢ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɹɥɨɫɶ ɩɭɬɟɦ ɫɪɚɜɧɟɧɢɹ ɜɵɱɢɫɥɟɧɧɨɝɨ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɚ ɩɚɪɧɨɣ ɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɢ ɧɟɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɮɪɚɝɦɟɧɬɨɜ ɢɡɭɱɚɟɦɵɯ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɯ ɪɹɞɨɜ, ɫ 99% ɩɨɪɨɝɨɦ ɞɨɫɬɨɜɟɪɧɨɣ ɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɢ, ɪɚɫɫɱɢɬɚɧɧɵɦ ɫ ɭɱɟɬɨɦ ɱɢɫɥɚ ɫɬɟɩɟɧɟɣ ɢɯ ɫɜɨɛɨɞɵ. ɉɪɢ ɨɰɟɧɤɟ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɫɨɯɪɚɧɟɧɢɹ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɨɫɬɢ ɧɟɤɨɬɨɪɨɣ ɫɜɹɡɢ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɥɚɫɶ ɡɚɜɢɫɢɦɨɫɬɶ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɚ ɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɢ ɩɚɪɵ ɮɪɚɝɦɟɧɬɨɜ ɫɨɩɨɫɬɚɜɥɹɟɦɵɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ, ɫɞɜɢɧɭɬɵɯ ɦɟɠɞɭ ɫɨɛɨɣ ɩɨ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ ɧɚ ɩɨɫɬɨɹɧɧɭɸ ɜɟɥɢɱɢɧɭ, ɨɬ ɝɨɞɚ ɧɚɱɚɥɚ ɮɪɚɝɦɟɧɬɚ ɪɹɞɚ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɟɣ ɜɟɬɪɚ. ɉɪɟɞɩɨɥɚɝɚɥɨɫɶ, ɱɬɨ ɨɬɤɥɨɧɟɧɢɹ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ ɭɤɚɡɚɧɧɨɣ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤɢ ɨɬ ɟɟ ɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɝɨ ɬɪɟɧɞɚ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɹɸɬ ɫɨɛɨɣ ɫɬɚɰɢɨɧɚɪɧɵɣ ɧɨɪɦɚɥɶɧɵɣ ɫɥɭɱɚɣɧɵɣ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫ. ɍɱɢɬɵɜɚɹ ɷɬɨ, ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ɟɝɨ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɨɠɢɞɚɧɢɹ ɢ ɞɢɫɩɟɪɫɢɢ, ɪɚɫɫɱɢɬɚɧɧɵɟ ɩɨ ɞɨɫɬɭɩɧɨɣ ɩɪɟɞɵɫɬɨɪɢɢ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɬɪɟɧɞɚ ɜ ɛɥɢɠɚɣɲɟɦ ɛɭɞɭɳɟɦ ɫɨɯɪɚɧɹɬɫɹ ɧɟɢɡɦɟɧɧɵɦɢ. ɉɨɫɥɟɞɧɟɟ ɩɨɡɜɨɥɹɟɬ, ɪɚɫɩɨɥɚɝɚɹ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɟɦ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɚ ɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɢ, ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɸɳɢɦ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɧɟɦɭ ɮɪɚɝɦɟɧɬɭ ɪɹɞɚ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɟɣ ɜɟɬɪɚ, ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɢɬɶ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɬɨɝɨ, ɱɬɨ ɞɥɹ ɮɪɚɝɦɟɧɬɚ, ɡɚɤɚɧɱɢɜɚɸɳɟɝɨɫɹ ɛɭɞɭɳɢɦ (ɩɪɢ ɭɩɪɟɠɞɟɧɢɢ ɧɚ ɨɞɢɧ, ɞɜɚ ɢ ɛɨɥɟɟ ɥɟɬ) ɟɝɨ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɟ ɛɭɞɟɬ ɩɪɟɜɵɲɚɬɶ 99% ɩɨɪɨɝ ɞɨɫɬɨɜɟɪɧɨɣ ɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɢ. ȼ ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɣ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɨɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɤɚɠɞɨɦ ɪɟɩɪɟɡɟɧɬɚɬɢɜɧɨɦ ɩɭɧɤɬɟ ɜɵɛɢɪɚɥɢɫɶ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɟ ɪɹɞɵ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɣ ɚɧɨɦɚɥɢɣ SST ɤɜɚɞɪɚɬɨɜ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɣ Ⱥɬɥɚɧɬɢɤɢ, ɪɚɡɦɟɪɚɦɢ 5ɨɯ5ɨ, ɨɰɟɧɟɧɧɚɹ ɩɨɞɨɛɧɵɦ ɨɛɪɚɡɨɦ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɨɫɬɢ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɩɪɢ ɭɩɪɟɠɞɟɧɢɢ 1 ɝɨɞ ɹɜɥɹɥɚɫɶ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ. Ʉɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɵ ɭɪɚɜɧɟɧɢɹ ɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɣ ɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɢ ɪɚɫɫɱɢɬɵɜɚɥɢɫɶ ɞɥɹ ɮɪɚɝɦɟɧɬɚ ɪɹɞɚ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɟɣ ɜɟɬɪɚ, ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɸɳɟɝɨ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɭ 1988-2009 ɝɝ., ɫ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɟɦ ɦɟɬɨɞɚ ɧɚɢɦɟɧɶɲɢɯ ɤɜɚɞɪɚɬɨɜ [6]. ɉɪɢ ɷɬɨɦ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ɢɡɭɱɚɟɦɵɯ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤ ɞɥɹ ɬɟɯ ɢɥɢ ɢɧɵɯ ɦɟɫɹɰɟɜ 2010, 2011 ɢ 2012 ɝɝ. ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɥɢɫɶ ɩɪɢ ɨɰɟɧɤɟ ɬɨɱɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɨɜ, ɩɨɫɬɪɨɟɧɧɵɯ ɫ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɟɦ ɜ ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɮɭɧɤɰɢɢ ɩɨɥɭɱɟɧɧɨɝɨ ɭɪɚɜɧɟɧɢɹ. ȼ ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɮɚɤɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɦɚɬɟɪɢɚɥɚ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɥɢɫɶ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɟ ɪɹɞɵ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ ɚɧɨɦɚɥɢɣ SST ɜɫɟɯ ɤɜɚɞɪɚɬɨɜ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɣ Ⱥɬɥɚɧɬɢɤɢ, ɡɚ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ 1970 - 2012 ɝɝ. ɩɨɥɭɱɟɧɧɵɟ ɢɡ Ƚɨɪɨɞ Ɉɞɟɫɫɚ ɏɟɪɫɨɧ ɑɟɪɧɨɦɨɪɫɤɨɟ ɋɢɦɮɟɪɨɩɨɥɶ Ʉɟɪɱɶ Ɇɚɪɢɭɩɨɥɶ ɒɢɪɨɬɚ ɨN 46.5 46.6 45.5 44.9 45.3 47.1 Ⱦɨɥɝɨɬɚ ɨE 30.7 32.6 32.7 34.1 36.5 37.6 [15], ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɸɳɢɟ ɩɨ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɟ ɪɹɞɵ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɟɣ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɩɪɢɡɟɦɧɨɦ ɫɥɨɟ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɵ ɜ ɪɟɩɪɟɡɟɧɬɚɬɢɜɧɵɯ ɩɭɧɤɬɚɯ, ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɧɵɟ ɜ [16]. ɊȿɁɍɅɖɌȺɌɕ ɂ ɂɏ ȺɇȺɅɂɁ ȼ ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɢɢ ɫ ɢɡɥɨɠɟɧɧɨɣ ɦɟɬɨɞɢɤɨɣ, ɞɥɹ ɤɚɠɞɨɝɨ ɦɟɫɹɰɚ ɢ ɤɚɠɞɨɝɨ ɪɟɩɪɟɡɟɧɬɚɬɢɜɧɨɝɨ ɩɭɧɤɬɚ, ɨɫɧɨɜɵɜɚɹɫɶ ɧɚ ɩɪɟɞɵɫɬɨɪɢɢ ɢɡɭɱɚɟɦɵɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ, ɡɚɤɚɧɱɢɜɚɸɳɟɣɫɹ 2009 ɝ., ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɵ ɤɜɚɞɪɚɬɵ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɣ Ⱥɬɥɚɧɬɢɤɢ, ɜ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɚɧɨɦɚɥɢɣ SST ɫ ɧɚɢɛɨɥɶɲɟɣ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶɸ ɛɭɞɭɬ ɹɜɥɹɬɶɫɹ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɵɦɢ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɚɦɢ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɣ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɟɣ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ 1989-2010 ɝɝ.. ȼ ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɚ, ɜ ɬɚɛɥɢɰɟ 2 ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɵ ɤɨɨɪɞɢɧɚɬɵ ɰɟɧɬɪɨɜ ɩɨɞɨɛɧɵɯ ɤɜɚɞɪɚɬɨɜ, ɞɥɹ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɭɬɪɚɬɵ ɧɚ ɨɬɪɟɡɤɟ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ 1989-2010 ɝɝ. ɡɧɚɱɢɦɨɫɬɢ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɣ ɚɧɨɦɚɥɢɣ ɢɯ SST , ɤɚɤ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɟɣ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɹɧɜɚɪɟ ɜ ɝ. ɋɢɦɮɟɪɨɩɨɥɶ ɧɟ ɩɪɟɜɵɲɚɟɬ 10-7. ɂɡ ɬɚɛɥɢɰɵ 2 ɜɢɞɧɨ, ɱɬɨ ɩɪɚɤɬɢɱɟɫɤɢ ɜɫɟ ɤɜɚɞɪɚɬɵ ɚɤɜɚɬɨɪɢɢ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɣ Ⱥɬɥɚɧɬɢɤɢ, ɞɥɹ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɭɬɪɚɬɵ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɨɫɬɢ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɚɧɨɦɚɥɢɣ ɢɯ SST , ɤɚɤ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɣ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɟɣ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɹɧɜɚɪɟ, ɜ ɝ. ɋɢɦɮɟɪɨɩɨɥɶ, ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ 1989-2010 ɝɝ. ɧɟ ɩɪɟɜɵɲɚɟɬ 10-7 ɪɚɫɩɨɥɨɠɟɧɵ ɜ ɡɚɩɚɞɧɨɦ ɩɨɥɭɲɚɪɢɢ. Ɉɧɢ ɪɚɫɩɨɥɨɠɟɧɵ ɜ ɚɤɜɚɬɨɪɢɹɯ, ɱɟɪɟɡ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɩɪɨɯɨɞɢɬ ɋɟɜɟɪɨ-Ⱥɬɥɚɧɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɟ ɬɟɱɟɧɢɟ ɢ ɟɝɨ ɜɟɬɜɢ, ɱɬɨ ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɟɬ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɢɹɦ [3] ɨ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɢ ɬɟɩɥɨɨɛɦɟɧɚ ɢɯ ɩɨɜɟɪɯɧɨɫɬɟɣ ɫ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɨɣ ɤɚɤ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɚ ɰɢɪɤɭɥɹɰɢɢ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɵ ɧɚɞ ȿɜɪɨɩɨɣ. ɋ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɟɦ ɜ ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɚɪɝɭɦɟɧɬɨɜ ɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɝɨ ɭɪɚɜɧɟɧɢɹ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɢ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɯ ɪɹɞɨɜ ɚɧɨɦɚɥɢɣ SST ɭɤɚɡɚɧɧɵɯ ɤɜɚɞɪɚɬɨɜ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɣ Ⱥɬɥɚɧɬɢɤɢ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɰɢɪɨɜɚɧɚ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɚɹ ɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɨɧɧɚɹ ɦɨɞɟɥɶ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɟɦɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɚ, ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɵ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɣ ɩɪɢɜɟɞɟɧɵ ɜ ɬɚɛɥɢɰɟ 3. ɇɚ ɪɢɫ. 1 ɩɪɢɜɟɞɟɧɵ ɩɪɟɞɵɫɬɨɪɢɹ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɣ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɨɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɝ ɹɧɜɚɪɟ ɜ ɝ. ɋɢɦɮɟɪɨɩɨɥɶ, ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɵ ɟɟ ɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɢ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɫ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɟɦ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɰɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɮɚɤɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ɞɚɧɧɨɣ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤɢ ɜ 2010-2012 ɝɝ. ɏɨɥɨɩɰɟɜ Ⱥɥɟɤɫɚɧɞɪ, Ⱥɤɫɟɧɨɜɚ Ⱥɥɟɤɫɚɧɞɪɚ Ɍɚɛɥɢɰɚ 2. Ʉɨɨɪɞɢɧɚɬɵ ɰɟɧɬɪɨɜ ɤɜɚɞɪɚɬɨɜ ɚɤɜɚɬɨɪɢɢ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɣ Ⱥɬɥɚɧɬɢɤɢ, ɞɥɹ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɭɬɪɚɬɵ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɨɫɬɢ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɚɧɨɦɚɥɢɣ ɢɯ SST, ɤɚɤ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɣ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɟɣ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɹɧɜɚɪɟ, ɜ ɝ. ɋɢɦɮɟɪɨɩɨɥɶ, ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ 1989-2010 ɝɝ. ɧɟ ɩɪɟɜɵɲɚɟɬ 10-7 Table 2. Squares coordinates centers of the North Atlantic for which the likelihood of loss significant variations anomalies of SST, as the drivers of change monthly average wind speed in January, in Simferopol, in the period 1989-2010. does not exceed 10-7 ɨ ɨ ʋ ɒɢɪɨɬɚ N Ⱦɨɥɝɨɬɚ ʋ ɒɢɪɨɬɚ ɨN Ⱦɨɥɝɨɬɚ ɨ ʋ ɒɢɪɨɬɚ ɨN Ⱦɨɥɝɨɬɚ ɨ 1 62,5 -52,5 5 62,5 -47,5 9 62,5 -7,5 2 62,5 -52,5 6 62,5 -42,5 10 62,5 2,5 3 62,5 -52,5 7 62,5 -42,5 4 62,5 -47,5 8 62,5 -32,5 Ɍɚɛɥɢɰɚ 3. Ʉɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɵ ɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɣ ɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɨɧɧɨɣ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɦɟɠɝɨɞɨɜɵɯ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɣ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɟɣ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɹɧɜɚɪɟ ɜ ɝ. ɋɢɦɮɟɪɨɩɨɥɶ Table 3. The coefficients of linear multiple regression prediction model interstate annum changes monthly wind speed in January in Simferopol ʋ Ʉɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬ Ɂɧɚɱɟɧɢɟ ʋ Ʉɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬ Ɂɧɚɱɟɧɢɟ ʋ Ʉɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬ Ɂɧɚɱɟɧɢɟ ɤɜɚɞɪ. ɦɨɞɟɥɢ. ɤɜɚɞɪ. ɦɨɞɟɥɢ. ɤɜɚɞɪ. ɦɨɞɟɥɢ. ɋ0 16.585 4 ɋ4 0.091 8 ɋ8 -1.442 1 ɋ1 -0.032 5 ɋ5 1.182 9 ɋ9 1.282 2 ɋ3 1.354 6 ɋ6 -0.393 10 ɋ10 0.344 3 ɋ4 1.721 7 ɋ7 -0.103 30 25 20 15 10 5 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0 ˀ́̔1 ˀ́̔2 ˀ́̔3 ˀ́̔4 ˀ́̔5 Ɋɢɫ. 1. ɉɪɟɞɵɫɬɨɪɢɹ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɣ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɨɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɹɧɜɚɪɟ ɜ ɝ. ɋɢɦɮɟɪɨɩɨɥɶ (ɪɹɞ 1), ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɵ ɟɟ ɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɢ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ (ɪɹɞ 2), ɟɟ ɮɚɤɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ɜ 2010-2012 ɝɝ. (ɪɹɞ 3), ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɝɪɚɧɢɰɵ ɢɧɬɟɪɜɚɥɚ ɜ ɩɪɟɞɟɥɵ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɝɨ ɫ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶɸ 0.98 ɩɨɩɚɞɭɬ ɮɚɤɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ. Fig. 1. Background to changes of mean monthly wind speed in January in Simferopol (range 1), the results of modeling and forecasting (range 2), its actual value in 2010-2012. (range 3), as well as the boundaries of the interval within which the probability 0.98 will get the actual values. Ɍɚɛɥɢɰɚ 4. Ɏɚɤɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɢ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɭɟɦɵɟ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɟɣ ɜɟɬɪɚ (ɤɦ/ɱ) ɜ ɹɧɜɚɪɟ ɜ ɪɟɩɪɟɡɟɧɬɚɬɢɜɧɵɯ ɩɭɧɤɬɚɯ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɝɨ ɉɪɢɱɟɪɧɨɦɨɪɶɹ Table 4. Actual and predicted values of mean monthly wind speed (km /h) in January in representative areas of the Northern Black Sea Coast ɉɭɧɤ Ɏɚɤɬ ɉɪɨɝɧ Ɏɚɤɬ ɉɪɨɝɧ Ɏɚɤɬ ɉɪɨɝɧ ɉɭɧɤ Ɏɚ ɉɪɨɝ Ɏɚ ɉɪ Ɏɚɤ ɉɪɨɝ ɧ ɬ ɤɬ ɨɝɧ ɧ ɬ 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 ɬ ɤɬ 20 201 201 2012 201 2010 2 1 11 0 19.6 15. 14. 19.2 21.2 Ɉɞɟɫ 17.8 17.6 15.8 11.5 18.1 16.6 ɋɢɦɮ 19. 4 1 0 ɫɚ ɟɪɨɩɨ ɥɶ ɏɟɪɫ 10.8 10.9 13.6 13.0 12.5 19.8 Ʉɟɪɱ 17. 17.9 15. 13. 18.9 20.2 ɨɧ ɶ 9 0 3 24.8 9.0 12.9 19.7 20.4 Ɇɚɪɢ 22. 19.6 14. 14. 19.9 21.2 ɑɟɪɧ 19.3 ɭɩɨɥɶ 8 4 0 ɨɦɨɪ ɫɤɨɟ ɈɊɂȿɇɌɂɊɈȼɈɑɇɕȿ ɉɊɈȽɇɈɁɕ ɏȺɊȺɄɌȿɊɂɋɌɂɄ ɋɄɈɊɈɋɌɂ ȼȿɌɊȺ ɂɡ ɪɢɫ. 1 ɜɢɞɧɨ, ɱɬɨ ɧɚ ɨɬɪɟɡɤɟ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ 1988-2009 ɝɝ. ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɵ ɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɭɞɨɜɥɟɬɜɨɪɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɸɬ ɩɪɟɞɵɫɬɨɪɢɢ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɣ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɨɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɝ ɹɧɜɚɪɟ ɜ ɝ. ɋɢɦɮɟɪɨɩɨɥɶ. Ɉɬɥɢɱɢɹ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɨɜ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɟɦɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɚ ɧɚ 2010-2012 ɝɝ. ɨɬ ɟɝɨ ɮɚɤɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɫɪɚɜɧɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɧɟ ɜɟɥɢɤɢ ɢ ɩɨɡɜɨɥɹɸɬ ɫɨɫɬɚɜɢɬɶ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɢɟ ɨ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɟ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɛɭɞɭɳɟɦ ɟɝɨ ɫɨɫɬɨɹɧɢɣ. Ⱥɧɚɥɨɝɢɱɧɵɟ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɵ ɞɥɹ ɩɪɨɱɢɯ ɪɟɩɪɟɡɟɧɬɚɬɢɜɧɵɯ ɩɭɧɤɬɨɜ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɵ ɜ ɬɚɛɥɢɰɟ 4. ɂɡ ɬɚɛɥɢɰɵ 4 ɫɥɟɞɭɟɬ, ɱɬɨ ɪɚɡɪɚɛɨɬɚɧɧɵɟ ɫ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɟɦ ɩɪɟɞɥɨɠɟɧɧɨɣ ɦɟɬɨɞɢɤɢ ɨɪɢɟɧɬɢɪɨɜɨɱɧɵɟ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɵ ɨɛɥɚɞɚɸɬ ɩɪɢɟɦɥɟɦɨɣ ɬɨɱɧɨɫɬɶɸ ɢ ɩɨɡɜɨɥɹɸɬ ɫɭɞɢɬɶ ɨ ɬɟɧɞɟɧɰɢɹɯ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɜ ɛɭɞɭɳɟɦ ɜɫɟɯ ɢɡɭɱɚɟɦɵɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ. Ⱥɧɚɥɨɝɢɱɧɵɦɢ ɨɫɨɛɟɧɧɨɫɬɹɦɢ ɨɛɥɚɞɚɸɬ ɩɨɫɬɪɨɟɧɧɵɟ ɬɚɤɢɦ ɠɟ ɫɩɨɫɨɛɨɦ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɵ ɦɟɠɝɨɞɨɜɵɯ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɣ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɟɣ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɢ ɜ ɩɪɨɱɢɟ ɦɟɫɹɰɵ. ȼɕȼɈȾɕ 1. ɍɱɟɬ ɩɪɢ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨ-ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɦɨɞɟɥɟɣ ɦɟɠɝɨɞɨɜɨɣ ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɚɧɨɦɚɥɢɣ SST ɜɵɹɜɥɟɧɧɵɯ ɚɤɜɚɬɨɪɢɣ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɣ Ⱥɬɥɚɧɬɢɤɢ, ɩɨɡɜɨɥɹɟɬ ɨɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɥɹɬɶ ɷɮɮɟɤɬɢɜɧɭɸ ɨɰɟɧɤɭ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɟɣ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜɨ ɜɫɟɯ ɩɭɧɤɬɚɯ ɋɟɜɟɪɧɨɝɨ ɉɪɢɱɟɪɧɨɦɨɪɶɹ ɫ ɭɩɪɟɠɞɟɧɢɹɦɢ ɧɟ ɦɟɧɟɟ 3 ɥɟɬ. 2. ɉɪɟɞɥɨɠɟɧɧɚɹ ɦɟɬɨɞɢɤɚ ɜɵɹɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ, ɫɩɨɫɨɛɧɵɯ ɫ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶɸ ɫɨɯɪɚɧɢɬɶ ɫɜɨɸ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɨɫɬɶ ɜ ɛɥɢɠɚɣɲɟɦ ɛɭɞɭɳɟɦ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɚ ɩɪɢ ɪɟɲɟɧɢɢ ɚɧɚɥɨɝɢɱɧɵɯ ɡɚɞɚɱ ɢ ɞɥɹ ɞɪɭɝɢɯ ɪɟɝɢɨɧɨɜ Ɇɢɪɚ, ɩɪɢ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɢ, ɱɬɨ ɩɨɢɫɤ ɷɬɢɯ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ ɨɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɫ ɭɱɟɬɨɦ ɜɫɟɯ ɚɤɜɚɬɨɪɢɣ Ɇɢɪɨɜɨɝɨ ɨɤɟɚɧɚ. ɅɂɌȿɊȺɌɍɊȺ 1. ȼɟɬɪɨɜɚ ɇ., 2012: ɗɤɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ ɚɭɞɢɬ ɢ ɷɤɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ ɦɨɧɢɬɨɪɢɧɝ ɜ ɭɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɢ ɷɤɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɛɟɡɨɩɚɫɧɨɫɬɢ ɪɟɝɢɨɧɚ// MOTROL. ʋ 14-1, 82-87 (ɧɚ ɪɭɫɫɤɨɦ ɹɡɵɤɟ). 2. Ⱦɦɢɬɪɟɜɫɤɢɣ ɘ.Ⱦ., Ʌɢɬɨɜɤɚ Ɉ.ɉ., 1984. 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On the example of the Northern Black Sea Coast representative items shown that allowance for the identification of predictive multiple-regression models of the interannual variability of SST anomalies identified variations in the North Atlantic waters, enables efficient evaluation of monthly mean values of wind speed with a lead time of at least 3 years. Keywords: forecasting, wind speed, temperature, surface waters, North Atlantic, the model, correlation, identification.
