Анализ причин усиления шквалистого ветра до

Ⱥɧɚɥɢɡ ɩɪɢɱɢɧ ɭɫɢɥɟɧɢɹ ɲɤɜɚɥɢɫɬɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɞɨ ɭɪɚɝɚɧɧɨɣ ɫɢɥɵ
ɜ Ʉɟɪɱɟɧɫɤɨɦ ɩɪɨɥɢɜɟ 11 ɧɨɹɛɪɹ 2007 ɝ.
Ɇ.ȼ. Ȼɭɯɚɪɨɜ 1, Ʉ.ɇ. Ƚɨɥɨɜɥɟɜ 2, ɇ.ɋ. Ɇɢɪɨɧɨɜɚ 1, ȿ.Ⱥ. ɋɢɡɟɧɨɜɚ 1
1
Ƚɍ «ɇɚɭɱɧɨ-ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɬɟɥɶɫɤɢɣ ɰɟɧɬɪ ɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɝɢɞɪɨɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɢ «ɉɥɚɧɟɬɚ»,
123242, Ɇɨɫɤɜɚ, Ȼ.ɉɪɟɞɬɟɱɟɧɫɤɢɣ ɩɟɪ., 7
E-mail: bmv@planet.iitp.ru;
2
Ƚɍ «Ƚɢɞɪɨɦɟɬɰɟɧɬɪ Ɋɨɫɫɢɢ». 123242, Ɇɨɫɤɜɚ, Ȼ.ɉɪɟɞɬɟɱɟɧɫɤɢɣ ɩɟɪ., 9/13
E-mail: golovlev@mecom.ru
ɇɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɟ ɤɨɦɩɥɟɤɬɚ ɤɚɪɬ, ɩɨɫɬɪɨɟɧɧɵɯ ɱɟɪɟɡ 15 ɦɢɧɭɬ, ɩɪɨɜɟɞɟɧ ɚɧɚɥɢɡ ɞɢɧɚɦɢɤɢ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɣ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ ɫ 10 ɩɨ 11 ɧɨɹɛɪɹ 2007 ɝ. ɜ ɪɚɣɨɧɟ Ʉɟɪɱɟɧɫɤɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɥɢɜɚ. ȼɵɹɜɥɟɧɵ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɵ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɜɥɢɹɥɢ ɧɚ
ɜɨɡɧɢɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɟ ɫɢɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɲɤɜɚɥɢɫɬɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɷɬɨɦ ɪɚɣɨɧɟ ɢ ɟɝɨ ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɭɫɢɥɟɧɢɹ ɞɨ ɭɪɚɝɚɧɧɨɣ ɫɢɥɵ. ɂɦɢ
ɹɜɥɹɸɬɫɹ: ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɚɹ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɶ ɝɪɚɞɢɟɧɬɧɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ ɚɤɬɢɜɧɨɣ ɫɬɚɞɢɢ ɰɢɤɥɨɧɚ, ɭɫɢɥɟɧɢɟ ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɩɪɢɡɟɦɧɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ, ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɨɫɨɛɟɧɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɪɢɛɪɟɠɧɨɝɨ ɪɟɥɶɟɮɚ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ
ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɧɚɹ ɤɨɧɜɟɤɰɢɹ ɜ ɪɚɣɨɧɚɯ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɧɵɯ ɮɪɨɧɬɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɡɨɧ. Ɉɬɦɟɱɟɧɚ ɩɨɥɟɡɧɨɫɬɶ ɧɨɜɵɯ ɤɚɪɬ ɮɪɨɧɬɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɨɧɬɪɚɫɬɨɜ ɜ ɩɨɥɹɯ ɩɪɢɡɟɦɧɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɢ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ ɧɚ ɭɪɨɜɧɟ 850 ɝɉɚ ɞɥɹ ɨɰɟɧɤɢ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ
ɧɚɱɚɥɚ ɢ ɩɪɨɞɨɥɠɢɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɢ ɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɹ ɲɤɜɚɥɢɫɬɨɝɨ ɲɬɨɪɦɨɜɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ Ʉɟɪɱɟɧɫɤɨɦ ɩɪɨɥɢɜɟ.
Ʉɥɸɱɟɜɵɟ ɫɥɨɜɚ: ɜɟɬɟɪ, ɲɤɜɚɥ, ɦɨɪɟ, ɰɢɤɥɨɧ, ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɧɵɣ ɮɪɨɧɬ, ɤɨɧɬɪɚɫɬ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ.
ȼɜɟɞɟɧɢɟ
Ɉɞɧɨɣ ɢɡ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦ, ɜɨɡɧɢɤɚɸɳɟɣ ɩɪɢ ɨɩɟɪɚɬɢɜɧɨɦ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɦ ɨɛɫɥɭɠɢɜɚɧɢɢ ɫɭɞɨɯɨɞɫɬɜɚ, ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɫɥɨɠɧɨɫɬɶ ɪɚɫɩɨɡɧɚɜɚɧɢɹ ɫɢɬɭɚɰɢɣ, ɤɨɝɞɚ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɚɹ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɶ ɲɤɜɚɥɢɫɬɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɞɨɫɬɢɝɚɬɶ ɭɪɚɝɚɧɧɨɣ ɫɢɥɵ. ɇɟɫɦɨɬɪɹ ɧɚ ɪɟɞɤɨɫɬɶ ɬɚɤɢɯ
ɫɢɬɭɚɰɢɣ, ɨɧɢ ɦɨɝɭɬ ɜɵɡɵɜɚɬɶ ɝɢɛɟɥɶ ɫɭɞɨɜ ɢ ɥɸɞɟɣ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɷɤɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɵ
ɧɚ ɚɤɜɚɬɨɪɢɹɯ, ɤɚɤ ɷɬɨ ɫɥɭɱɢɥɨɫɶ, ɧɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ, 11 ɧɨɹɛɪɹ 2007 ɝ. ɜ ɪɚɣɨɧɟ Ʉɟɪɱɟɧɫɤɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɥɢɜɚ. ȼ ɷɬɨɬ ɞɟɧɶ ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɭɫɢɥɟɧɢɹ ɲɤɜɚɥɢɫɬɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɞɨɫɬɢɝɚɥɢ ɭɪɚɝɚɧɧɨɣ ɫɢɥɵ, ɱɬɨ
ɩɪɢɜɟɥɨ ɤ ɝɢɛɟɥɢ ɛɨɥɟɟ 10 ɫɭɞɨɜ ɢ ɫɟɪɶɟɡɧɨɣ ɷɤɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɟ. ɉɨɷɬɨɦɭ ɫɨɜɟɪɲɟɧɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɦɟɬɨɞɨɜ ɨɩɟɪɚɬɢɜɧɨɝɨ ɪɚɫɩɨɡɧɚɜɚɧɢɹ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɣ, ɩɪɢ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɨ ɜɨɡɧɢɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɟ ɨɩɚɫɧɵɯ ɜɟɬɪɨɜɵɯ ɫɢɬɭɚɰɢɣ ɧɚ ɦɨɪɟ, ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɜɚɠɧɨɣ ɡɚɞɚɱɟɣ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɢ.
Ʉ ɧɚɫɬɨɹɳɟɦɭ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ ɨɩɭɛɥɢɤɨɜɚɧɵ ɪɚɛɨɬɵ, ɜ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɪɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɟɧɚ ɫɩɟɰɢɮɢɤɚ
ɫɢɧɨɩɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ, ɜɵɡɜɚɜɲɢɯ 11 ɧɨɹɛɪɹ 2007 ɝ. ɨɩɚɫɧɵɟ ɜɟɬɪɵ ɢ ɜɨɥɧɟɧɢɟ ɜ Ʉɟɪɱɟɧɫɤɨɦ ɩɪɨɥɢɜɟ, ɧɚ ɫɟɜɟɪɨ-ɜɨɫɬɨɤɟ ɑɟɪɧɨɝɨ ɦɨɪɹ ɢ ɧɚ Ⱥɡɨɜɫɤɨɦ ɦɨɪɟ [1], ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɞɢɫɬɚɧɰɢɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɹ ɢ ɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɬɚɤɢɯ ɫɢɬɭɚɰɢɣ [2]. Ɋɟɤɨɦɟɧɞɚɰɢɢ ɪɚɛɨɬɵ [1] ɩɨ ɩɪɟɞɭɩɪɟɠɞɟɧɢɸ ɨ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɨɩɚɫɧɵɯ ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɜɟɬɪɨɜ ɬɪɟɛɭɸɬ
ɩɪɨɜɟɞɟɧɢɹ ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟɧɧɨ ɞɟɬɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɮɚɤɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɢ, ɱɬɨ ɧɟ ɜɫɟɝɞɚ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɪɟɚɥɢɡɨɜɚɧɨ ɜ ɨɩɟɪɚɬɢɜɧɨɣ ɪɚɛɨɬɟ.
ɍɱɢɬɵɜɚɹ ɷɬɨ, ɰɟɥɶɸ ɞɚɧɧɨɣ ɪɚɛɨɬɵ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɢɡɭɱɟɧɢɟ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɤɚɪɬ ɬɟɤɭɳɟɣ ɩɨɝɨɞɵ [3] ɞɥɹ ɨɰɟɧɤɢ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɜɨɡɧɢɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɹ ɨɩɚɫɧɵɯ ɜɟɬɪɨɜɵɯ
ɫɢɬɭɚɰɢɣ ɧɚ ɚɤɜɚɬɨɪɢɹɯ. ɉɪɢ ɩɪɨɜɟɞɟɧɢɢ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɵ ɫɥɟɞɭɸɳɢɟ ɤɚɪɬɵ: ɪɚɞɢɚɰɢɨɧɧɨɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ, ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɣ, ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɢ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɩɪɢɡɟɦɧɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɫɩɟɰɢɚɥɶɧɨ ɪɚɡɪɚɛɨɬɚɧɧɵɟ ɤɚɪɬɵ ɮɪɨɧɬɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɨɧɬɪɚɫɬɨɜ
ɜ ɩɨɥɟ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɢ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ. ɗɤɫɩɟɪɢɦɟɧɬɚɥɶɧɵɣ ɜɵɩɭɫɤ ɬɚɤɢɯ ɤɚɪɬ ɤ ɧɚɫɬɨɹɳɟɦɭ
ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ ɨɫɜɨɟɧ ɜ Ƚɍ «ɇɂɐ «ɉɥɚɧɟɬɚ».
ɉɨɫɤɨɥɶɤɭ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɧɢɟ ɭɫɨɜɟɪɲɟɧɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɤɚɪɬ ɟɳɟ ɧɟ ɧɚɲɥɢ ɨɬɪɚɠɟɧɢɹ ɜ ɩɭɛɥɢɤɚɰɢɹɯ, ɩɨɹɫɧɢɦ ɤɪɚɬɤɨ ɢɯ ɨɫɨɛɟɧɧɨɫɬɢ.
9
Ʉɚɪɬɵ ɬɟɤɭɳɟɣ ɩɨɝɨɞɵ
Ⱦɥɹ ɪɟɲɟɧɢɹ ɩɨɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɧɨɣ ɡɚɞɚɱɢ ɜ Ƚɍ «ɇɂɐ «ɉɥɚɧɟɬɚ» ɜɵɩɭɳɟɧɚ ɫɩɟɰɢɚɥɶɧɚɹ ɫɟɪɢɹ
ɤɚɪɬ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɨɯɜɚɬɵɜɚɸɬ ɩɨɛɟɪɟɠɶɟ ɢ ɚɤɜɚɬɨɪɢɸ Ʉɟɪɱɟɧɫɤɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɥɢɜɚ, ɑɟɪɧɨɝɨ ɢ Ⱥɡɨɜɫɤɨɝɨ
ɦɨɪɟɣ. Ʉɚɪɬɵ ɩɨɡɜɨɥɹɸɬ ɢɡɭɱɢɬɶ ɞɢɧɚɦɢɤɭ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɣ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ
ɫ 10 ɩɨ 11 ɧɨɹɛɪɹ 2007 ɝ. ɫ ɞɟɬɚɥɶɧɨɫɬɶɸ ɩɨ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ ɞɨ 15 ɦɢɧɭɬ. ɉɪɢ ɪɚɡɪɚɛɨɬɤɟ ɤɚɪɬ ɭɱɢɬɵɜɚɥɚɫɶ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɹ ɨɛ ɭɯɨɞɹɳɟɦ ɬɟɩɥɨɜɨɦ ɢɡɥɭɱɟɧɢɢ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɵ ɢ ɡɟɦɧɨɣ ɩɨɜɟɪɯɧɨɫɬɢ, ɤɨɬɨɪɨɟ
ɤɚɠɞɵɟ 15 ɦɢɧɭɬ ɪɟɝɢɫɬɪɢɪɨɜɚɥɢɫɶ ɫ ɝɟɨɫɬɚɰɢɨɧɚɪɧɨɝɨ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɚ Meteosat-8, ɢ ɫɢɧɯɪɨɧɧɵɟ ɞɚɧɧɵɟ ɝɢɞɪɨɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɪɟɝɢɨɧɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɚ (ȽɆɊɉ) ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɨɥɟɣ [4].
Ʉɚɪɬɚ ɪɚɞɢɚɰɢɨɧɧɨɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ
Ʉɚɪɬɚ ɜɵɩɭɫɤɚɟɬɫɹ ɩɨ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɚɦ ɤɚɥɢɛɪɨɜɤɢ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɭɯɨɞɹɳɟɝɨ ɢɡɥɭɱɟɧɢɹ Ɂɟɦɥɢ (ɜ ɞɢɚɩɚɡɨɧɟ 10-11 ɦɤɦ), ɪɟɝɢɫɬɪɢɪɭɟɦɨɝɨ ɫ ɝɟɨɫɬɚɰɢɨɧɚɪɧɨɝɨ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɚ Meteosat-8. ɉɟɪɟɞ ɩɨɫɬɪɨɟɧɢɟɦ ɤɚɪɬɵ ɩɪɨɜɨɞɢɬɫɹ ɤɨɪɪɟɤɰɢɹ ɝɟɨɝɪɚɮɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɤɨɨɪɞɢɧɚɬ ɤɚɠɞɨɝɨ ɨɬɤɚɥɢɛɪɨɜɚɧɧɨɝɨ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ɪɚɞɢɚɰɢɨɧɧɨɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɧɚ ɜɟɪɯɧɟɣ ɝɪɚɧɢɰɟ ɨɛɥɚɱɧɨɫɬɢ
(ɩɢɤɫɟɥɹ) ɫ ɭɱɟɬɨɦ ɝɟɨɦɟɬɪɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɣ (ɩɚɪɚɥɥɚɤɫɚ), ɜɨɡɧɢɤɚɸɳɢɯ ɩɪɢ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɢ ɜɵɫɨɤɨɣ ɨɛɥɚɱɧɨɫɬɢ ɫ ɝɟɨɫɬɚɰɢɨɧɚɪɧɨɝɨ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɚ [5].
Ɂɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ɪɚɞɢɚɰɢɨɧɧɨɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɢɡɥɭɱɟɧɢɹ ɨɬ ɨɛɥɚɱɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɧɨ ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɸɬ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɟ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɵ ɧɚ ɜɟɪɯɧɟɣ ɝɪɚɧɢɰɟ ɨɛɥɚɤɨɜ. ȼ ɛɟɡɨɛɥɚɱɧɵɯ ɪɚɣɨɧɚɯ –
ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɟ ɜɟɪɯɧɟɝɨ ɫɥɨɹ ɩɨɞɫɬɢɥɚɸɳɟɣ ɩɨɜɟɪɯɧɨɫɬɢ. Ⱦɥɹ ɛɵɫɬɪɨɝɨ ɜɢɡɭɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɪɚɫɩɨɡɧɚɜɚɧɢɹ ɧɢɡɤɨɣ (ɛɨɥɟɟ ɬɟɩɥɨɣ) ɢ ɜɵɫɨɤɨɣ (ɛɨɥɟɟ ɯɨɥɨɞɧɨɣ) ɨɛɥɚɱɧɨɫɬɢ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɭɸɬɫɹ ɨɬɬɟɧɤɢ ɪɟɡɤɨ ɤɨɧɬɪɚɫɬɢɪɭɸɳɟɝɨ ɫɢɧɟɝɨ ɢ ɮɢɨɥɟɬɨɜɨɝɨ ɰɜɟɬɚ.
Ⱦɥɹ ɨɰɟɧɤɢ ɬɟɤɭɳɟɣ ɫɢɧɨɩɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɫɢɬɭɚɰɢɢ ɧɚ ɤɚɪɬɭ ɧɚɧɟɫɟɧɵ ɥɢɧɢɢ ɢɡɨɛɚɪ (ɱɟɪɟɡ 5 ɝɉɚ) ɞɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ, ɩɪɢɜɟɞɟɧɧɨɝɨ ɤ ɭɪɨɜɧɸ ɦɨɪɹ. Ⱦɨɩɨɥɧɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɫɬɪɟɥɤɚɦɢ ɧɚɧɟɫɟɧɵ
ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɩɟɪɟɧɨɫɚ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɵ ɧɚ ɢɡɨɛɚɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɩɨɜɟɪɯɧɨɫɬɢ 500 ɝɉɚ. ɂɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɹ ɨ
ɞɚɜɥɟɧɢɢ ɢ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɢ ɩɟɪɟɧɨɫɚ ɪɚɫɫɱɢɬɚɧɚ ɩɨ ɜɵɯɨɞɧɵɦ ɞɚɧɧɵɦ ȽɆɊɉ [4].
Ʉɚɪɬɚ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɣ
Ʉɚɪɬɚ ɫɬɪɨɢɬɫɹ ɩɨ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɚɦ ɚɜɬɨɦɚɬɢɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɨɝɨ ɪɚɫɩɨɡɧɚɜɚɧɢɹ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɣ, ɫɜɹɡɚɧɧɵɯ ɫ ɨɛɥɚɱɧɨɫɬɶɸ [6]. Ɇɟɬɨɞɢɤɚ ɩɨɡɜɨɥɹɟɬ ɜ ɥɸɛɨɟ ɜɪɟɦɹ ɫɭɬɨɤ, ɜ
ɥɸɛɨɣ ɫɟɡɨɧ ɝɨɞɚ ɢ ɧɚɞ ɥɸɛɵɦ ɬɢɩɨɦ ɩɨɞɫɬɢɥɚɸɳɟɣ ɩɨɜɟɪɯɧɨɫɬɢ ɪɚɫɩɨɡɧɚɜɚɬɶ: ɨɛɥɚɱɧɨɫɬɶ ɛɟɡ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ, ɫɥɚɛɵɟ ɢ ɭɦɟɪɟɧɧɵɟ ɨɫɚɞɤɢ, ɥɢɜɧɢ, ɫɢɥɶɧɵɟ ɥɢɜɧɢ, ɝɪɨɡɵ ɧɢɡɤɨɣ,
ɫɪɟɞɧɟɣ ɢ ɜɵɫɨɤɨɣ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ, ɝɪɚɞ ɜ ɨɛɥɚɤɚɯ ɢ ɝɪɨɡɵ ɫɨ ɲɤɜɚɥɚɦɢ.
Ɋɚɫɩɨɡɧɚɜɚɧɢɟ ɩɪɨɜɨɞɢɬɫɹ ɞɥɹ ɤɚɠɞɨɝɨ ɩɢɤɫɟɥɹ ɤɚɪɬɵ, ɝɨɪɢɡɨɧɬɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɪɚɡɦɟɪɵ
ɤɨɬɨɪɨɝɨ (ɩɨ ɝɟɨɝɪɚɮɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɲɢɪɨɬɟ ɢ ɞɨɥɝɨɬɟ) ɫɨɫɬɚɜɥɹɸɬ 0,1°. Ɋɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɵ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɨɝɨ ɪɚɫɩɨɡɧɚɜɚɧɢɹ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɣ, ɫɜɹɡɚɧɧɵɯ ɫ ɨɛɥɚɱɧɨɫɬɶɸ, ɩɨɫɥɨɣɧɨ ɧɚɧɨɫɹɬɫɹ ɧɚ ɤɚɪɬɭ ɜ ɜɢɞɟ ɫɩɟɰɢɚɥɶɧɨ ɩɨɞɨɛɪɚɧɧɨɣ ɤɨɦɛɢɧɚɰɢɢ ɰɜɟɬɨɜ. ɇɚ ɤɚɪɬɭ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɧɚɧɟɫɟɧɵ ɥɢɧɢɢ ɢɡɨɛɚɪ (ɱɟɪɟɡ 5 ɝɉɚ) ɩɪɢɡɟɦɧɨɝɨ ɞɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɧɚ ɦɨɦɟɧɬ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɨɣ ɫɴɟɦɤɢ
ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɢ ɫɬɪɟɥɤɢ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɣ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɧɚ ɭɪɨɜɧɟ 500 ɝɉɚ.
Ʉɚɪɬɚ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɭ ɡɟɦɥɢ ɩɪɢ ɩɨɪɵɜɚɯ
Ɂɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɢ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɪɚɫɫɱɢɬɵɜɚɸɬɫɹ ɩɨ ɭɫɨɜɟɪɲɟɧɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɧɨɣ
ɦɟɬɨɞɢɤɟ ɞɟɲɢɮɪɨɜɤɢ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɢ ȽɆɊɉ, ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɸɳɟɣ ɦɨɦɟɧɬɭ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɨɣ ɫɴɟɦ10
ɤɢ [7, 8]. ɉɪɢ ɷɬɨɦ ɜɜɨɞɢɬɫɹ ɩɨɩɪɚɜɤɚ ɧɚ ɞɨɩɨɥɧɢɬɟɥɶɧɨɟ ɭɫɢɥɟɧɢɟ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɵ, ɤɨɝɞɚ
ɫɢɧɨɩɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɹ ɫɩɨɫɨɛɫɬɜɭɸɬ ɜɨɡɧɢɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɸ ɇɨɜɨɪɨɫɫɢɣɫɤɨɣ ɛɨɪɵ ɢ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɨ
ɭɫɢɥɟɧɢɟ ɮɨɧɨɜɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɦɢ ɧɢɫɯɨɞɹɳɢɦɢ ɩɨɬɨɤɚɦɢ ɜ ɤɭɱɟɜɨ-ɞɨɠɞɟɜɵɯ ɨɛɥɚɤɚɯ. ɇɚ ɤɚɪɬɭ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɧɚɧɟɫɟɧɵ ɢɡɨɛɚɪɵ ɞɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ, ɩɪɢɜɟɞɟɧɧɨɝɨ ɤ ɭɪɨɜɧɸ ɦɨɪɹ.
Ʉɚɪɬɚ ɮɪɨɧɬɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɨɧɬɪɚɫɬɨɜ
Ʉɚɪɬɚ ɫɬɪɨɢɬɫɹ ɩɨ ɜɵɯɨɞɧɵɦ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ȽɆɊɉ ɨ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹɯ ɩɨɥɹ ɞɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɧɚ ɭɪɨɜɧɟ
ɦɨɪɹ, ɝɟɨɩɨɬɟɧɰɢɚɥɚ ɢ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ ɧɚ ɭɪɨɜɧɟ 850 ɝɉɚ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɪɚɫɫɱɢɬɚɧɧɵɦ
ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹɦ ɝɨɪɢɡɨɧɬɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɨɧɬɪɚɫɬɨɜ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɧɚ ɢɡɨɛɚɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɩɨɜɟɪɯɧɨɫɬɢ
850 ɝɉɚ ɢ ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɣ ɝɪɚɞɢɟɧɬɧɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɭ ɡɟɦɥɢ.
ȼɫɟ ɩɚɪɚɦɟɬɪɵ ɪɚɫɫɱɢɬɵɜɚɸɬɫɹ ɧɚ ɦɨɦɟɧɬ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɨɣ ɫɴɟɦɤɢ ɢ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɬɟɥɶɧɨ
ɧɚɧɨɫɹɬɫɹ ɧɚ ɤɚɪɬɭ. Ɋɚɡɧɵɦɢ ɨɬɬɟɧɤɚɦɢ ɫɟɪɨɝɨ ɰɜɟɬɚ ɜɵɞɟɥɟɧɵ ɤɨɧɬɪɚɫɬɵ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ
ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ ɧɚ ɭɪɨɜɧɟ 850 ɝɉɚ, ɩɪɟɜɵɲɚɸɳɢɟ 1.5°ɋ ɧɚ 100 ɤɦ. Ɂɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɣ
ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɜɟɬɪɚ, ɩɪɟɜɵɲɚɸɳɢɟ 15° ɧɚ 100 ɤɦ, ɧɚɧɟɫɟɧɵ ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɞɥɹ ɡɨɧ
ɫɯɨɞɢɦɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɰɢɤɥɨɧɚɯ ɢ ɛɚɪɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɥɨɠɛɢɧɚɯ, ɢ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɵ ɜ ɜɢɞɟ ɤɜɚɞɪɚɬɨɜ
ɭɦɟɧɶɲɟɧɧɨɝɨ ɪɚɡɦɟɪɚ. ɇɚ ɤɚɪɬɭ ɧɚɧɟɫɟɧɵ ɥɢɧɢɢ ɢɡɨɬɟɪɦ (ɱɟɪɟɡ 2°ɋ) ɢ ɫɬɪɟɥɤɢ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɣ ɩɟɪɟɧɨɫɚ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɵ ɧɚ ɭɪɨɜɧɟ 850 ɝɉɚ.
Ⱥɧɚɥɢɡ ɞɢɧɚɦɢɤɢ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɣ
Ⱦɥɹ ɩɨɥɭɱɟɧɢɹ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɨ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɢ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɜɨ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɣ ɢ ɫɪɨɤɨɜ ɝɢɛɟɥɢ ɫɭɞɨɜ 10-11 ɧɨɹɛɪɹ 2007 ɝ. ɜ ɪɚɣɨɧɟ Ʉɟɪɱɟɧɫɤɨɝɨ
ɩɪɨɥɢɜɚ, ɨɛɪɚɬɢɦɫɹ ɤ ɪɢɫ.1. ɇɚ ɧɟɦ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɵ ɞɚɧɧɵɟ ɨ ɦɢɧɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɦ ɞɚɜɥɟɧɢɢ ɜ ɰɟɧɬɪɟ ɰɢɤɥɨɧɚ, ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɮɚɤɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ, ɡɚɪɟɝɢɫɬɪɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɨɣ ɧɚ ɦɟɬɟɨɫɬɚɧɰɢɹɯ ɩɨɛɟɪɟɠɶɹ Ʉɟɪɱɟɧɫɤɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɥɢɜɚ, ɑɟɪɧɨɝɨ ɢ Ⱥɡɨɜɫɤɨɝɨ ɦɨɪɟɣ, ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ
ɨɰɟɧɨɱɧɨɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɞɚɧɧɵɟ ɨ ɦɨɦɟɧɬɚɯ ɝɢɛɟɥɢ ɫɭɞɨɜ ɢ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ ɩɪɨɯɨɠɞɟɧɢɹ ɱɟɪɟɡ ɷɬɨɬ ɪɚɣɨɧ ɮɪɨɧɬɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɡɨɧ ɨɤɤɥɸɡɢɢ ɢ ɯɨɥɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɮɪɨɧɬɚ.
Ʉɚɤ ɜɢɞɧɨ ɢɡ ɝɪɚɮɢɤɚ, ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɧɨɝɨ ɧɚ ɪɢɫ.1ɚ, ɰɢɤɥɨɧ ɞɨɫɬɢɝ ɫɜɨɟɣ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɚɤɬɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɜ 19 ɱ 10 ɧɨɹɛɪɹ 2007 ɝ. (ɞɚɜɥɟɧɢɟ ɭɩɚɥɨ ɧɢɠɟ 990 ɝɉɚ) ɢ ɫɨɯɪɚɧɹɥ ɟɟ
ɩɪɢɦɟɪɧɨ ɞɨ 13 ɱ (37 ɱ ɧɚ ɪɢɫ.1) 11 ɧɨɹɛɪɹ. ɇɚ ɝɪɚɮɢɤɚɯ ɢ ɞɚɥɟɟ ɜ ɬɟɤɫɬɟ ɩɪɢɧɹɬɨ ɜɫɟɦɢɪɧɨɟ ɫɤɨɨɪɞɢɧɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɨɟ ɜɪɟɦɹ (ȼɋȼ). Ⱦɚɧɧɵɟ ɨ ɞɚɜɥɟɧɢɢ ɪɚɫɫɱɢɬɚɧɵ ɫ ɩɨɦɨɳɶɸ ȽɆɊɉ
ɢ ɜɡɹɬɵ ɫ ɤɚɪɬ ɪɚɞɢɚɰɢɨɧɧɨɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ, ɩɨɫɬɪɨɟɧɧɵɯ ɱɟɪɟɡ ɤɚɠɞɵɟ 15 ɦɢɧɭɬ.
Ⱥɧɚɥɢɡ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɢ ɤɚɪɬ ɪɚɞɢɚɰɢɨɧɧɨɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɢ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɣ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɥ ɫɥɟɞɭɸɳɟɟ. Ɉɛɥɚɱɧɨɫɬɶ ɬɟɩɥɨɝɨ ɮɪɨɧɬɚ ɧɚɞ Ʉɟɪɱɟɧɫɤɢɦ ɩɪɨɥɢɜɨɦ ɩɨɹɜɢɥɚɫɶ
ɢ ɭɫɢɥɢɥɚɫɶ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ ɫ 20 ɞɨ 21 ɱ 10 ɧɨɹɛɪɹ, ɬ.ɟ. ɩɪɢɦɟɪɧɨ ɡɚ 2.5-3.5 ɱ ɞɨ ɜɵɯɨɞɚ ɜ ɷɬɨɬ ɪɚɣɨɧ
ɮɪɨɧɬɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɡɨɧɵ ɩɨɜɵɲɟɧɧɨɣ (>15°/100 ɤɦ) ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɭ ɡɟɦɥɢ.
ɉɨ ɝɪɚɮɢɤɭ ɪɢɫ.1ɛ ɜɢɞɧɨ, ɱɬɨ ɩɟɪɜɵɟ ɩɨɪɵɜɵ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɞɨ 22
ɦ/ɫ ɡɚɪɟɝɢɫɬɪɢɪɨɜɚɧɵ ɜ ɢɡɭɱɚɟɦɨɦ ɪɚɣɨɧɟ ɜ 22 ɱ 35 ɦɢɧ 10.11.09 ɝ., ɬ.ɟ. ɱɟɪɟɡ ɬɪɢ ɫ ɩɨɥɨɜɢɧɨɣ ɱɚɫɚ ɩɨɫɥɟ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɚɤɬɢɜɢɡɚɰɢɢ ɰɢɤɥɨɧɚ ɞɨ 989 ɝɉɚ (ɪɢɫ.1ɚ) ɢ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɧɨ ɱɟɪɟɡ 3 ɱ ɩɨɫɥɟ ɩɨɹɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɨɛɥɚɱɧɨɫɬɢ. ȼɪɟɦɹ ɧɚɱɚɥɚ ɲɬɨɪɦɨɜɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ Ʉɟɪɱɟɧɫɤɨɦ ɩɪɨɥɢɜɟ (22 ɱ 35 ɦɢɧ) ɫɨɜɩɚɥɨ ɫɨ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɟɦ ɜɵɯɨɞɚ ɜ ɷɬɨɬ ɪɚɣɨɧ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ ɩɨɜɵɲɟɧɧɨɣ
(>15°/100 ɤɦ) ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɭ ɡɟɦɥɢ (ɤɪɭɝɥɵɟ ɬɨɱɤɢ 2 ɧɚ ɪɢɫ.1ɝ), ɤɨɬɨɪɨɟ ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɨ ɩɨ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɢ ɤɚɪɬ ɮɪɨɧɬɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɨɧɬɪɚɫɬɨɜ, ɪɚɫɫɱɢɬɚɧɧɵɯ ɩɨ
ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɢ ȽɆɊɉ. ɗɬɨ ɫɜɢɞɟɬɟɥɶɫɬɜɭɟɬ ɨ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɬɚɤɢɯ ɤɚɪɬ ɞɥɹ ɡɚɛɥɚɝɨɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɨɣ ɨɰɟɧɤɢ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ ɧɚɱɚɥɚ ɲɬɨɪɦɨɜɵɯ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɣ.
11
ɚ
ɐ_Ɋ0ɦɢɧ, ɝɉɚ
1000
998
996
994
992
990
988
986
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
ȼɪɟɦɹ ɫ 6 ɱ 10 ɧɨɹɛɪɹ 2007 ɝ. ɧɚ 42 ɱ ɜɩɟɪɟɞ (ɞɨ 24 ɱ 11
ɧɨɹɛɪɹ)
ɛ
Vmax_ɮɚɤɬ,
ɦ/ɫ
35
25
15
5
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
30
36
42
48
30
36
42
Vmax_ɨɰɟɧ
ɤɚ, ɦ/ɫ
ɜ
45
25
5
6
12
18
24
ɝ
ɋɨɛɵɬɢɹ
3
2
1
0
6
12
18
24
1
2
48
3
Ɋɢɫ. 1. Ƚɪɚɮɢɤɢ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɜɨ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ ɨɰɟɧɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ɦɢɧɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɞɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɜ ɰɟɧɬɪɟ ɩɪɨɯɨɞɢɜɲɟɝɨ
ɰɢɤɥɨɧɚ (ɚ), ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɩɨ ɮɚɤɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɦ ɢɡɦɟɪɟɧɢɹɦ (ɛ) ɢ ɟɟ ɨɰɟɧɤɟ ɩɨ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɨɣ ɢ
ɩɪɨɝɧɨɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɢ (ɜ), ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ (ɝ) ɜ ɜɢɞɟ: ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɜ ɢɡɭɱɚɟɦɨɦ ɪɚɣɨɧɟ
ɩɨɜɵɲɟɧɧɵɯ (>1.5°C/100 ɤɦ) ɤɨɧɬɪɚɫɬɨɜ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ ɧɚ ɭɪɨɜɧɟ 850 ɝɉɚ (1), ɩɨɜɵɲɟɧɧɨɣ
(>15°/100 ɤɦ) ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɭ ɡɟɦɥɢ (2) ɢ ɦɨɦɟɧɬɵ ɝɢɛɟɥɢ ɢɥɢ ɜɵɛɪɨɫɚ ɫɭɞɨɜ ɧɚ ɦɟɥɶ (3).
Ƚɪɚɮɢɤɢ (ɛ)-(ɝ) ɨɬɧɨɫɹɬɫɹ ɤ ɚɤɜɚɬɨɪɢɢ ɢ ɩɨɛɟɪɟɠɶɸ Ʉɟɪɱɟɧɫɤɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɥɢɜɚ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɤ ɛɥɢɠɚɣɲɢɦ ɪɚɣɨɧɚɦ
Ⱥɡɨɜɫɤɨɝɨ ɢ ɑɟɪɧɨɝɨ ɦɨɪɟɣ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ ɫ 6 ɱ 10 ɧɨɹɛɪɹ ɞɨ 24 ɱ ȼɋȼ 11 ɧɨɹɛɪɹ 2007 ɝ. (ɢɥɢ ɫ 6 ɞɨ 48 ɱ ɩɨ ɩɪɢɧɹɬɨɣ ɲɤɚɥɟ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ)
12
ɉɟɪɜɚɹ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɚ ɩɪɨɢɡɨɲɥɚ ɜ 1 ɱ 50 ɦɢɧ 11.11.07 ɝ. (ɥɟɜɵɣ ɪɨɦɛɢɤ 3 ɧɚ ɪɢɫ.1.ɝ)
ɫ ɬɚɧɤɟɪɨɦ «ȼɨɥɝɨɧɟɮɬɶ 139», ɤɨɬɨɪɵɣ ɧɚɯɨɞɢɥɫɹ ɧɚ ɪɟɣɞɟ 450 ɹɤɨɪɧɨɣ ɫɬɨɹɧɤɢ ɩɨɪɬɚ
«Ʉɚɜɤɚɡ» (45.38° ɫ.ɲ., 37.42° ɜ.ɞ.). ɉɨɞ ɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɟɦ ɫɢɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ 20-25 ɦ/ɫ (ɪɢɫ.1ɛ) ɢ ɜɨɥɧɟɧɢɹ ɦɨɪɹ ɬɚɧɤɟɪ ɪɚɡɥɨɦɢɥɫɹ, ɢ ɢɡ ɧɟɝɨ ɜɵɥɢɥɨɫɶ ɨɤɨɥɨ 1000 ɬɨɧɧ ɦɚɡɭɬɚ. ɋɨɝɥɚɫɧɨ
ɪɢɫ.1ɜ, ɜ ɷɬɨɬ ɦɨɦɟɧɬ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɭɫɢɥɟɧɢɹ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɧɚ ɚɤɜɚɬɨɪɢɢ ɩɨɪɬɚ «Ʉɚɜɤɚɡ»
ɦɨɝɥɢ ɞɨɫɬɢɝɚɬɶ 30 ɦ/ɫ. Ɍɚɤɚɹ ɭɪɚɝɚɧɧɚɹ ɫɢɥɚ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɹɜɢɥɚɫɶ ɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɢɟɦ ɨɞɧɨɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɨɝɨ
ɜɨɡɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɹ ɮɨɧɨɜɨɝɨ ɝɪɚɞɢɟɧɬɧɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɞɨ 20 ɦ/ɫ, ɞɨɛɚɜɤɢ ɤ ɧɟɣ (ɩɪɢɦɟɪɧɨ ɧɚ 10 ɦ/ɫ),
ɜɨɡɧɢɤɲɟɣ ɩɨɞ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɟɦ ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɧɢɫɯɨɞɹɳɢɯ ɞɜɢɠɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɤɭɱɟɜɨ-ɞɨɠɞɟɜɵɯ ɨɛɥɚɤɚɯ,
ɡɚɪɟɝɢɫɬɪɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɵɯ ɜ ɷɬɨɦ ɪɚɣɨɧɟ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɜɨɡɧɢɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɟɦ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ
ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɜɟɬɪɚ (ɫɜɵɲɟ 15°/100 ɤɦ) ɧɚ ɚɤɜɚɬɨɪɢɢ ɩɨɪɬɚ.
ɉɨɜɵɲɟɧɧɚɹ (ɢ ɡɚɦɟɬɧɨ ɭɫɢɥɢɜɲɚɹɫɹ ɫ 24 ɞɨ 30 ɱ ɧɚ ɪɢɫ.1ɝ) ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɶ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɭ ɡɟɦɥɢ ɜ ɪɚɣɨɧɟ Ʉɟɪɱɟɧɫɤɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɥɢɜɚ ɫɨɯɪɚɧɹɥɚɫɶ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɧɨ ɞɨ 12 ɱ 30 ɦɢɧ
11.11.09 ɝ. (ɱɬɨ ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɟɬ 36,5 ɱ ɧɚ ɪɢɫ.1ɝ). ɉɪɢɱɟɦ, ɩɪɢɦɟɪɧɨ ɫ 3 ɱ 30 ɦɢɧ ɞɨ 5 ɱ 30
ɦɢɧ (27.5 -29.5 ɱ ɧɚ ɪɢɫ.1ɝ) ɩɨ ɨɰɟɧɤɚɦ ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟɧɧɚɹ ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɶ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɜɟɬɪɚ
ɭ ɡɟɦɥɢ ɛɵɥɚ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɢ ɩɪɟɜɵɲɚɥɚ 45°/100 ɤɦ. ȼ ɷɬɨ ɠɟ ɜɪɟɦɹ ɧɚɡɟɦɧɵɟ ɫɬɚɧɰɢɢ
ɨɬɦɟɱɚɥɢ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɭɸ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɶ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɞɨ 30 ɦ/ɫ (ɪɢɫ.1ɛ).
ɉɪɢɦɟɪɧɨ ɫ 5 ɢ ɞɨ 13 ɱ 11.11.09 ɝ. (ɢɥɢ ɫ 29 ɞɨ 37 ɱ ɧɚ ɪɢɫ. 1ɝ ɬɪɟɭɝɨɥɶɧɢɤɢ 1) ɱɟɪɟɡ
ɪɚɣɨɧ Ʉɟɪɱɟɧɫɤɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɥɢɜɚ ɞɨɩɨɥɧɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɩɪɨɯɨɞɢɥɚ ɮɪɨɧɬɚɥɶɧɚɹ ɡɨɧɚ ɩɨɜɵɲɟɧɧɵɯ
(>1.5°C/100 ɤɦ) ɤɨɧɬɪɚɫɬɨɜ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ ɧɚ ɭɪɨɜɧɟ 850 ɝɉɚ, ɤɨɬɨɪɚɹ ɨɛɭɫɥɨɜɥɟɧɚ
ɯɨɥɨɞɧɵɦ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɧɵɦ ɮɪɨɧɬɨɦ ɰɢɤɥɨɧɚ. ȼ ɷɬɨɬ ɠɟ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ ɡɚɮɢɤɫɢɪɨɜɚɧɨ ɢ
ɨɫɧɨɜɧɨɟ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɨ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ ɫ ɫɭɞɚɦɢ (ɞɚɧɧɵɟ 3 ɧɚ ɪɢɫ. 1ɝ). ɉɪɢ ɷɬɨɦ ɨɰɟɧɨɱɧɵɟ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɪɚɣɨɧɟ ɫɨɫɬɚɜɥɹɥɢ ɨɤɨɥɨ 25 ɦ/ɫ (ɪɢɫ.1ɜ) ɢ ɭɞɨɜɥɟɬɜɨɪɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɫɨɜɩɚɞɚɥɢ ɫ ɮɚɤɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɦɢ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɹɦɢ (ɪɢɫ. 1ɛ).
ɉɨɫɥɟ ɬɨɝɨ, ɤɚɤ ɜ 13 ɱ 11.11.09 ɝ. ɱɟɪɟɡ ɪɚɣɨɧ Ʉɟɪɱɟɧɫɤɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɥɢɜɚ ɡɚɜɟɪɲɢɥɨɫɶ
ɩɪɨɯɨɠɞɟɧɢɟ ɡɨɧ ɮɪɨɧɬɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɨɧɬɪɚɫɬɨɜ (37 ɱ ɧɚ ɪɢɫ. 1ɝ, ɞɚɧɧɵɟ 1 ɢ 2) ɢ ɰɢɤɥɨɧ ɧɚɱɚɥ
ɦɟɞɥɟɧɧɨ ɡɚɩɨɥɧɹɬɶɫɹ (ɪɢɫ. 1ɚ), ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɚɹ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɶ ɩɨɪɵɜɨɜ ɝɪɚɞɢɟɧɬɧɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɟɳɟ
ɧɟɫɤɨɥɶɤɨ ɱɚɫɨɜ ɩɪɨɞɨɥɠɚɥɚ ɨɫɬɚɜɚɬɶɫɹ ɛɥɢɡɤɨɣ ɤ 22 ɦ/ɫ (ɪɢɫ. 1ɛ). Ɉɞɧɚɤɨ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ
ɟɝɨ ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɭɫɢɥɟɧɢɹ ɞɨ ɨɩɚɫɧɵɯ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ ɫɬɚɥɚ ɦɢɧɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ, ɱɬɨ ɩɨɞɬɜɟɪɠɞɚɸɬ ɢ
ɞɚɧɧɵɟ ɨɛ ɨɬɫɭɬɫɬɜɢɢ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ ɫɭɞɨɜ ɜ Ʉɟɪɱɟɧɫɤɨɦ ɩɪɨɥɢɜɟ ɜ ɷɬɨɬ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ.
ɋɥɟɞɭɟɬ ɨɬɦɟɬɢɬɶ, ɱɬɨ ɧɚɢɛɨɥɟɟ ɫɢɥɶɧɵɟ ɩɨɪɵɜɵ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɞɨ 35 ɦ/ɫ (ɪɢɫ. 1ɛ) ɛɵɥɢ ɡɚɪɟɝɢɫɬɪɢɪɨɜɚɧɵ ɜ Ⱥɧɚɩɟ 11 ɧɨɹɛɪɹ 2007 ɝ. ɜ 7 ɱ 30 ɦɢɧ. ȼ ɪɚɛɨɬɟ [1] ɷɬɨ ɭɫɢɥɟɧɢɟ ɨɛɴɹɫɧɹɟɬɫɹ ɫɥɟɞɭɸɳɢɦ ɨɛɪɚɡɨɦ: «ɩɨɪɵɜɵ ɞɨ 35 ɦ/ɫ ɭ Ⱥɧɚɩɵ ɜɨɡɧɢɤɥɢ ɡɚ ɯɨɥɨɞɧɵɦ ɮɪɨɧɬɨɦ
ɡɚ ɫɱɟɬ ɧɟɜɵɫɨɤɢɯ (2-4 ɤɦ) (Cb) ɧɚɞ ɬɟɩɥɨɣ ɜɨɞɨɣ ɢ ɨɪɨɝɪɚɮɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɤɨɧɜɟɤɰɢɢ ɩɪɢ ɧɚɬɟɤɚɧɢɢ ɢ ɨɛɬɟɤɚɧɢɢ ɟɳɟ ɛɨɥɟɟ (ɩɨ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɭ ɞɨ 22 ɦ/ɫ) ɭɫɢɥɢɜɲɢɯɫɹ ɝɪɚɞɢɟɧɬɧɵɯ ɢ ɫɭɦɦɚɪɧɵɯ ɜɟɬɪɨɜ ɢ ɜɟɬɪɨɜ ɧɢɡɤɨ ɪɚɫɩɨɥɨɠɟɧɧɨɣ ɦɟɡɨɫɬɪɭɢ ɭ ɮɪɨɧɬɚ ɜ ɫɥɨɟ 925-850 ɝɉɚ.
Ɉɤɨɥɨ 5-8 ɦ/ɫ "ɞɨɛɚɜɤɚ" ɞɚɥɨ ɨɛɬɟɤɚɧɢɟ ɜɵɫɬɭɩɚ ɝɨɪɧɨɣ ɰɟɩɢ ɭ Ⱥɧɚɩɵ, ɨɛɪɚɡɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɡɞɟɫɶ
ɩɥɨɫɤɨɣ ɜɨɥɧɵ ɫ ɦɟɫɬɧɵɦ ɤɪɚɬɤɨɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɦ ɭɫɢɥɟɧɢɟɦ ɤɨɧɜɟɤɰɢɢ».
Ɋɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɵ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɧɚɲɢɯ ɤɚɪɬ ɧɟ ɩɪɨɬɢɜɨɪɟɱɚɬ ɜɵɜɨɞɭ ɪɚɛɨɬɵ [1]. ȼ ɞɨɩɨɥɧɟɧɢɟ
ɤ ɷɬɨɦɭ, ɧɚɦɢ ɭɫɬɚɧɨɜɥɟɧɨ, ɱɬɨ ɩɟɪɟɞɧɹɹ ɱɚɫɬɶ ɡɨɧɵ ɯɨɥɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɮɪɨɧɬɚ, ɩɪɨɹɜɢɜɲɟɝɨɫɹ ɜ
ɩɨɜɵɲɟɧɧɵɯ ɤɨɧɬɪɚɫɬɚɯ (ɛɨɥɟɟ 1.5°ɋ/100 ɤɦ) ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɧɚ ɭɪɨɜɧɟ 850 ɝɉɚ, ɜɵɲɥɚ ɜ
ɪɚɣɨɧ Ⱥɧɚɩɵ ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɤ 7 ɱ 30 ɦɢɧ 11 ɧɨɹɛɪɹ 2007 ɝ., ɬ.ɟ. ɜ ɦɨɦɟɧɬ ɡɚɪɟɝɢɫɬɪɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɨɣ
ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ. ɍɱɢɬɵɜɚɹ ɷɬɨ, ɦɨɠɧɨ ɩɪɟɞɩɨɥɨɠɢɬɶ, ɱɬɨ ɚɤɬɢɜɢɡɚɰɢɹ ɬɭɪɛɭɥɟɧɬɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ ɜ ɩɟɪɟɞɧɟɣ ɱɚɫɬɢ ɡɨɧɵ ɯɨɥɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɮɪɨɧɬɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɨɞɧɨɣ
ɢɡ ɩɪɢɱɢɧ ɪɟɡɤɨɝɨ ɭɫɢɥɟɧɢɹ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɪɚɣɨɧɟ Ⱥɧɚɩɵ.
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ɂɡ ɫɪɚɜɧɟɧɢɹ ɮɚɤɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ (ɪɢɫ. 1ɛ) ɢ ɨɰɟɧɨɱɧɵɯ (ɪɢɫ. 1ɜ) ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɨ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜɢɞɧɨ, ɱɬɨ ɜ ɛɨɥɶɲɢɧɫɬɜɟ ɫɥɭɱɚɟɜ ɪɚɫɯɨɠɞɟɧɢɟ ɦɟɠɞɭ ɷɬɢɦɢ ɞɚɧɧɵɦɢ ɧɟ ɩɪɟɜɵɲɚɟɬ ±4 ɦ/ɫ, ɢ ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɜ ɨɬɞɟɥɶɧɵɟ ɧɟɩɪɨɞɨɥɠɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɟ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɵ ɨɧɨ
ɞɨɫɬɢɝɚɟɬ 8-13 ɦ/ɫ.
Ʉɚɤ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɥ ɚɧɚɥɢɡ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɢ ɤɚɪɬ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɣ, ɪɚɫɯɨɠɞɟɧɢɟ ɧɚ 5 ɦ/ɫ ɢ ɛɨɥɟɟ ɨɬɦɟɱɟɧɨ ɜ ɪɚɣɨɧɚɯ ɫ ɤɭɱɟɜɨ-ɞɨɠɞɟɜɵɦɢ ɨɛɥɚɤɚɦɢ, ɧɢɫɯɨɞɹɳɢɟ
ɩɨɬɨɤɢ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɩɨ ɨɰɟɧɤɚɦ ɦɨɝɥɢ ɞɨɩɨɥɧɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɭɫɢɥɢɜɚɬɶ ɜɟɬɟɪ ɧɚ 5-10 ɦ/ɫ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ
ɜ ɪɚɣɨɧɚɯ, ɝɞɟ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɶ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɡɚɦɟɬɧɨ ɢɡɦɟɧɹɬɶɫɹ ɩɨɞ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɟɦ ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɨɫɨɛɟɧɧɨɫɬɟɣ ɪɟɥɶɟɮɚ.
Ɍɚɤɢɦ ɨɛɪɚɡɨɦ, ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɟ ɤɨɦɩɥɟɤɬɚ ɤɚɪɬ, ɩɨɫɬɪɨɟɧɧɵɯ ɱɟɪɟɡ 15 ɦɢɧɭɬ, ɩɪɨɜɟɞɟɧ
ɚɧɚɥɢɡ ɞɢɧɚɦɢɤɢ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɣ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ ɫ 10 ɩɨ 11 ɧɨɹɛɪɹ 2007 ɝ. ɜ ɪɚɣɨɧɟ
Ʉɟɪɱɟɧɫɤɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɥɢɜɚ. ȼɵɹɜɥɟɧɵ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɵ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɜɥɢɹɥɢ ɧɚ ɜɨɡɧɢɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɟ ɫɢɥɶɧɨɝɨ
ɲɤɜɚɥɢɫɬɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɷɬɨɦ ɪɚɣɨɧɟ ɢ ɟɝɨ ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɭɫɢɥɟɧɢɹ ɞɨ ɭɪɚɝɚɧɧɨɣ ɫɢɥɵ. ɂɦɢ ɹɜɥɹɸɬɫɹ: ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɚɹ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɶ ɝɪɚɞɢɟɧɬɧɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ ɚɤɬɢɜɧɨɣ ɫɬɚɞɢɢ ɰɢɤɥɨɧɚ,
ɭɫɢɥɟɧɢɟ ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɩɪɢɡɟɦɧɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ, ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɨɫɨɛɟɧɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɪɢɛɪɟɠɧɨɝɨ ɪɟɥɶɟɮɚ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɧɚɹ ɤɨɧɜɟɤɰɢɹ ɜ ɪɚɣɨɧɚɯ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɧɵɯ
ɮɪɨɧɬɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɡɨɧ. Ɉɬɦɟɱɟɧɚ ɩɨɥɟɡɧɨɫɬɶ ɧɨɜɵɯ ɤɚɪɬ ɮɪɨɧɬɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɨɧɬɪɚɫɬɨɜ ɜ ɩɨɥɹɯ ɩɪɢɡɟɦɧɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɢ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ ɧɚ ɭɪɨɜɧɟ 850 ɝɉɚ ɞɥɹ ɨɰɟɧɤɢ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ ɧɚɱɚɥɚ
ɢ ɩɪɨɞɨɥɠɢɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɢ ɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɹ ɲɤɜɚɥɢɫɬɨɝɨ ɲɬɨɪɦɨɜɨɝɨ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɜ Ʉɟɪɱɟɧɫɤɨɦ ɩɪɨɥɢɜɟ.
Ⱥɜɬɨɪɵ ɜɵɪɚɠɚɸɬ ɛɥɚɝɨɞɚɪɧɨɫɬɶ ȼ.Ɇ.Ʌɨɫɟɜɭ ɢ ȼ.Ɇ.Ȼɭɯɚɪɨɜɭ ɡɚ ɩɨɞɝɨɬɨɜɤɭ
ɢ ɩɪɟɞɨɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɢɟ ɜɵɯɨɞɧɵɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ȽɆɊɉ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɛɵɥɢ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɵ ɩɪɢ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ ɪɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɟɧɧɨɣ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɫɢɬɭɚɰɢɢ.
Ʌɢɬɟɪɚɬɭɪɚ
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2.
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8.
ɉɟɫɤɨɜ Ȼ.ȿ., Ⱦɦɢɬɪɢɟɜɚ Ɍ.Ƚ. ɋɢɧɨɩɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɵ, ɜɵɡɜɚɜɲɢɟ 11 ɧɨɹɛɪɹ 2007 ɝ. ɨɩɚɫɧɵɟ
ɜɟɬɪɵ ɢ ɜɨɥɧɟɧɢɹ ɧɚ ɫɟɜɟɪɨ-ɜɨɫɬɨɤɟ ɑɟɪɧɨɝɨ ɦɨɪɹ, ɜ Ʉɟɪɱɟɧɫɤɨɦ ɩɪɨɥɢɜɟ ɢ ɧɚ Ⱥɡɨɜɫɤɨɦ ɦɨɪɟ. – Ɇɟɬɟɨɫɩɟɤɬɪ, 2009. ʋ 1. ɋ. 91-96.
Ʉɭɲɧɢɪ ȼ.Ɇ., Ɏɟɞɨɪɨɜ ɋ.ȼ., ɉɟɬɪɟɧɤɨ Ʌ.Ⱥ. Ɋɟɚɤɰɢɹ Ⱥɡɨɜɨ-ɱɟɪɧɨɦɨɪɫɤɨɝɨ ɛɚɫɫɟɣɧɚ ɧɚ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɵɣ ɰɢɤɥɨɧ 10-11 ɧɨɹɛɪɹ 2007 ɝ. – Ɇɨɪɫɤɢɟ ɢɫɩɵɬɚɧɢɹ, 2008. ʋ 1. ɋ. 62-71.
Ȼɭɯɚɪɨɜ Ɇ.ȼ. ɍɱɚɳɟɧɧɵɣ ɞɢɫɬɚɧɰɢɨɧɧɵɣ ɨɛɡɨɪ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɣ ɜ ɪɟɝɢɨɧɟ. –
Ɇɨɪɫɤɢɟ ɢɫɩɵɬɚɧɢɹ, 2008. ʋ 3. ɋ. 28-45. (http://www.seajournal.ru/PDF/3-2008/buharov.pdf).
Ʌɨɫɟɜ ȼ.Ɇ. Ƚɢɞɪɨɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɚɹ ɤɨɧɟɱɧɨ-ɪɚɡɧɨɫɬɧɚɹ ɦɨɞɟɥɶ ɪɟɝɢɨɧɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɚ ɧɚ ɗȼɆ
CRAY. – Ɍɪɭɞɵ Ƚɢɞɪɨɦɟɬɰɟɧɬɪɚ Ɋɨɫɫɢɢ, 2000. ȼɵɩ. 334. ɋ. 69-90.
Ȼɭɯɚɪɨɜ Ɇ.ȼ., Ɇɢɪɨɧɨɜɚ ɇ.ɋ., ɍɳɟɤɨ ɂ.Ƚ. Ɇɟɬɨɞɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɜɨɩɪɨɫɵ ɜɟɪɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɨɜ
ɚɜɬɨɦɚɬɢɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɨɝɨ ɪɚɫɩɨɡɧɚɜɚɧɢɹ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɢ ɝɪɨɡ ɩɨ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɢ ɫ ɝɟɨɫɬɚɰɢɨɧɚɪɧɵɯ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜ. ɋɨɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɟ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɵ ɞɢɫɬɚɧɰɢɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɡɨɧɞɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ Ɂɟɦɥɢ ɢɡ ɤɨɫɦɨɫɚ. ɋɛɨɪɧɢɤ ɧɚɭɱɧɵɯ ɫɬɚɬɟɣ // Ɇ.: ɈɈɈ «Ⱥɡɛɭɤɚ-2000», 2007. ȼɵɩɭɫɤ 4. Ɍ. 2. ɋ. 40-45.
Ⱥɥɟɤɫɟɟɜɚ Ⱥ.Ⱥ., Ȼɭɯɚɪɨɜ Ɇ.ȼ., Ʌɨɫɟɜ ȼ.Ɇ., ɋɨɥɨɜɶɟɜ ȼ.ɂ. Ⱦɢɚɝɧɨɡ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɢ ɝɪɨɡ ɩɨ ɢɡɦɟɪɟɧɢɹɦ ɭɯɨɞɹɳɟɝɨ ɬɟɩɥɨɜɨɝɨ ɢɡɥɭɱɟɧɢɹ ɨɛɥɚɱɧɨɫɬɢ ɫ ɝɟɨɫɬɚɰɢɨɧɚɪɧɵɯ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜ. - Ɇɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɹ
ɢ ɝɢɞɪɨɥɨɝɢɹ, 2006. ʋ 8. ɋ. 33-42.
Ȼɭɯɚɪɨɜ Ɇ.ȼ. Ʌɨɫɟɜ ȼ.Ɇ., ɉɟɫɤɨɜ Ȼ.ȿ. Ⱥɜɬɨɦɚɬɢɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɚɹ ɨɰɟɧɤɚ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɤɨɪɨɫɬɢ
ɩɨɪɵɜɨɜ ɜɟɬɪɚ ɭ ɡɟɦɥɢ ɫ ɭɱɟɬɨɦ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɢ ɝɟɨɫɬɚɰɢɨɧɚɪɧɨɝɨ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɚ. - Ɇɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɹ ɢ
ɝɢɞɪɨɥɨɝɢɹ, 2008. ʋ 12. ɋ. 5-14.
Ȼɭɯɚɪɨɜ Ɇ.ȼ. Ʌɨɫɟɜ ȼ.Ɇ., Ȼɭɯɚɪɨɜ ȼ.Ɇ. ɢ ɞɪ. Ⱥɧɚɥɢɡ ɜɟɬɪɨɜɵɯ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɣ ɩɨ ɤɨɦɩɥɟɤɫɭ ɭɱɚɳɟɧɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɢ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɵɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ ɧɚɜɨɞɧɟɧɢɹ ɜ ɋɚɧɤɬ-ɉɟɬɟɪɛɭɪɝɟ 3 ɮɟɜɪɚɥɹ 2008 ɝ. - Ɇɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɹ ɢ ɝɢɞɪɨɥɨɝɢɹ, 2009. ʋ 4. ɋ. 29-38.
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The analysis of the reasons of an amplification of a squally wind up to
a storm force in a strait about Kerch of November 11, 2007
M.V. Bukharov 1, K.N. Golovlev 2 N.S. Mironova 1, E.A. Sizenova 1
1
State Research Center on Space Hydrometeorology PLANETA,
123242 Moscow, Bolshoy Predtechensky Per., 7.
E-mail: bmv@planet.iitp.ru ;
2
State Research Center on Hydrometeorology 123242, Ɇɨɫɤɜɚ,
123242 Moscow, Bolshoy Predtechensky Per., 9/13.
E-mail: golovlev@mecom.ru
On the base of package of maps constructed in 15 minutes, the analysis of dynamics of meteorological conditions in
period from November 10 till November 11, 2007 in region of a strait about Kerch is conducted. The factors are
revealed which the local amplifications up to a storm force influenced origin force of a squally wind in this region
and it. There are: a maximum velocity of a wind during an active stage of a cyclone, amplification of a space variability of a direction of a wind, local features of a coastal contour, and also atmospheric convection in regions of atmospheric frontal zones. The usefulness of new maps of frontal contrasts in fields of a wind and temperature of an
air at a level 850 gPa for an evaluation of time of a beginning and duration of an operation of a squally storm wind
in a strait about Kerch is marked.
Keywords: a wind, squall, sea, cyclone, atmospheric front, contrast of temperature of an air.
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