Роль транснациональных энергетических корпораций в мировой экономике

Methodology of
Macroeconomic planning &
forecasting in RUSSIA
Made by:
Student of the MFF24-2m group
Alexander Smykov
$
Ⅰ. Theoretical Foundations of Macroeconomic Concepts and Their Influence on the Historical
Specificity and Evolution of Macroeconomic Planning and Forecasting in Russia
Tsarist Russia
 Tsarist Russia was
predominantly an agrarian
economy, with over 80% of
the population engaged in
agriculture.
 Economic policy was
primarily concerned with
maintaining the traditional
social order rather than longterm growth or planning.
 Unlike in the 20th century,
formal macroeconomic
forecasting mechanisms were
virtually non-existent.
 Policies were often based on
historical data, anecdotal
evidence, and the
recommendations of
influential ministers and
advisors rather than
systematic planning.
Agrarian
Economy
Limited
Industrialization
Key features
Lack of Formal
Forecasting
Mechanisms
Foreign
Investment and
Protectionism
 Witte's policies focused on
state-led industrial growth,
railway construction
(especially the Trans-Siberian
Railway), and encouraging
foreign investment.
 While this period saw the
beginnings of state
intervention in economic
matters, the scope of
macroeconomic planning
remained minimal
 Witte’s policies were
protectionist, but these were
not part of a broader
macroeconomic strategy
based on forecasted trends.
 The rapid growth of railways
and heavy industries was a
significant achievement, but it
was more a product of state
sponsorship than structured
long-term planning.
Ⅰ. Theoretical Foundations of Macroeconomic Concepts and Their Influence on the Historical
Specificity and Evolution of Macroeconomic Planning and Forecasting in Russia
Soviet Union
The Command Economy
Economic decisions were made by central authorities, primarily through
a series of Five-Year Plans, which set detailed targets for the production
of goods, the allocation of resources, and the distribution of labor.
Central Planning Agency
GOSPLAN coordinated the entire national economy, creating long-term
economic plans that specified production goals for every sector,
including heavy industry, agriculture, and military production.
The First Five-Year Plan
(1928–1932)
The plan focused heavily on heavy industry, steel production, coal
mining, and machinery, while neglecting consumer goods. Targets were
set for each sector, and the fulfillment of these targets was considered a
matter of national importance.
KEY FEATURES
No Market Mechanisms
Macroeconomic
Forecasting
Production targets were assigned based on the needs of the central plan,
and businesses were not allowed to deviate from these targets. This
meant that there was no role for traditional market-based forecasting
tools, such as predicting consumer demand or adjusting prices based on
market conditions.
Economic forecasting in the USSR was synonymous with plan
fulfillment. Forecasts focused on predicting whether production targets
would be met and assessing the resources (e.g., labor, raw materials,
energy) needed to achieve these targets.
Ⅰ. Theoretical Foundations of Macroeconomic Concepts and Their Influence on the Historical
Specificity and Evolution of Macroeconomic Planning and Forecasting in Russia
Soviet Union
Success
The Soviet planning system achieved significant
success in the early decades, particularly in the realm
of industrialization.
By the mid-20th century, the USSR had transformed
into a global industrial and military power, capable
of competing with the United States in fields like
space exploration (e.g., the launch of Sputnik in
1957).
Role of Statistics and Economic
Forecasting in the Later Period
Sputnik launched in 1957
 Economic forecasting tools did improve,
particularly with the development of
input-output models and the use of more
sophisticated statistical tools to predict
sectoral output. However, the lack of
feedback from real market conditions
continued to undermine the effectiveness of
these forecasts.
Failures
However, over time, the inefficiencies of the
command economy became apparent. The rigid
structure of planning stifled innovation and
adaptability, leading to shortages, poor-quality
goods, and overproduction in some sectors while
underproduction in others.
By the 1970s and 1980s, the Soviet economy was
stagnating, with little room for technological
advancement or productivity improvements.
Gorbachev’s Reforms and the
Decline of Central Planning
 Gorbachev introduced reforms under
perestroika (restructuring) aimed at
decentralizing the economy and
introducing some market elements.
However, these reforms were too little
and too late to save the command
economy, which ultimately contributed to
the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Ⅰ. Theoretical Foundations of Macroeconomic Concepts and Their Influence on the Historical
Specificity and Evolution of Macroeconomic Planning and Forecasting in Russia
Soviet Union
Input-Output modeling
Wassily Leontief
 The primary method used during this period
was input-output modeling, developed by
Wassily Leontief. This approach allowed
planners to map out the interrelationships
between different sectors of the economy,
ensuring that resources were allocated
according to the state’s priorities, with a
focus on heavy industry and defense.
 However, these models were often rigid and
inefficient, as they did not account for
market signals like prices or demand. The
lack of flexibility in adjusting to consumer
needs or external shocks resulted in
chronic shortages, waste, and
imbalances, which contributed to the
eventual economic stagnation of the Soviet
Union.
 Leontief based his approach on the idea
that an economy is basically divided
into Sectors and each Sector produces
a Product. In order to produce its
Product each Sector requires input which
must come from possibly all of the
Sectors, including itself.
 Consequently, overall, the amount that
the full economy must produce has to
include any desired external demand as
well as the internal demand which feeds
back into the economy so that each
Sector can do its job.
 As a pseudo-equation:
Total Amount Produced = Internal Demand + External Demand
Ⅰ. Theoretical Foundations of Macroeconomic Concepts and Their Influence on the Historical
Specificity and Evolution of Macroeconomic Planning and Forecasting in Russia
Transition Period
 After the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia faced the monumental task of
transitioning from a planned economy to a market-based one. During
the 1990s, macroeconomic forecasting methods shifted dramatically. The
government turned to macroeconomic models based on market principles,
such as the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model,
which simulated the economy's responses to different policy changes, trade
reforms, and fiscal adjustments. The goal was to forecast the effects of
privatization, trade liberalization, and deregulation.
 However, the early years of transition were marked by economic
volatility, with hyperinflation, high unemployment, and financial
crises. Forecasting in this period was difficult, as the Russian economy was
undergoing profound structural changes, and the data needed for accurate
modeling was often incomplete or unreliable.
Ⅰ. Theoretical Foundations of Macroeconomic Concepts and Their Influence on the Historical
Specificity and Evolution of Macroeconomic Planning and Forecasting in Russia
Modern Russia
 Since the 2000s, Russia has integrated more sophisticated methods of
macroeconomic planning and forecasting, combining domestic experience
with global best practices. The Russian government and Central Bank have
increasingly relied on macroeconomic models that incorporate both
Keynesian and neoclassical elements.
KEY TOOLS
DSGE models
Macroeconometric
models
Scenario
analysis
Input-output
analysis
Ⅰ. Theoretical Foundations of Macroeconomic Concepts and Their Influence on the Historical
Specificity and Evolution of Macroeconomic Planning and Forecasting in Russia
Metrics
Ⅱ. SWOT Analysis of Macroeconomic Planning & Forecasting in Russia
Metrics
Ⅱ. SWOT Analysis of Macroeconomic Planning & Forecasting in Russia
Metrics
Ⅱ. SWOT Analysis of Macroeconomic Planning & Forecasting in Russia
Metrics
Ⅰ. Theoretical Foundations of Macroeconomic Concepts and Their Influence on the Historical
Specificity and Evolution of Macroeconomic Planning and Forecasting in Russia
Classical Economics and Early Russian Planning
 Classical economic theory, rooted in the works of Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and John Stuart Mill, placed a heavy
emphasis on the self-regulating nature of markets. This approach was fundamentally at odds with the Soviet model
of central planning but did have an early influence during the late imperial period, especially in the reforms of the
late 19th and early 20th centuries, where market-oriented development was promoted, and limited industrialization
efforts were pursued.
 However, classical economic theory's impact was curtailed by the October Revolution of 1917, which ushered in a
new era of centralized economic planning. Marxist economic theory, as interpreted by Vladimir Lenin and later by
Joseph Stalin, dominated the direction of macroeconomic planning for decades and 5 years. The Soviet Union
rejected classical notions of free markets, adopting instead a centrally controlled model where the state dictated
production, consumption, and distribution, striving for rapid industrialization and collectivization.
Ⅰ. Theoretical Foundations of Macroeconomic Concepts and Their Influence on the Historical
Specificity and Evolution of Macroeconomic Planning and Forecasting in Russia
Keynesian Influence in Post-Soviet Russia
 After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia’s transition to a market economy marked a significant shift in
economic thinking. During the 1990s, Russian economic policymakers, grappling with economic crises, turned to
Keynesian ideas. Keynesian economics, developed by John Maynard Keynes, emphasizes government intervention
to mitigate the volatility of the business cycle through fiscal and monetary policy. In Russia, this translated into
attempts at fiscal stimulus, especially during periods of recession and hyperinflation.
 The role of government in macroeconomic stabilization became central, as Russia, like many other post-communist
economies, faced severe disruptions in output, employment, and inflation. The Keynesian perspective provided a
framework for understanding how state intervention—through budget deficits, monetary easing, and public
investments—could foster recovery during downturns.
 However, the implementation of these policies in Russia faced significant challenges, including institutional
weaknesses, corruption, and policy mismanagement, which undermined their effectiveness.
Ⅰ. Theoretical Foundations of Macroeconomic Concepts and Their Influence on the Historical
Specificity and Evolution of Macroeconomic Planning and Forecasting in Russia
Neoclassical Economics and Transition to Market Reforms
 In the 2000s, neoclassical economic ideas began to dominate Russian macroeconomic policy, particularly under the
leadership of technocratic economists in the Russian government. Neoclassical economics, rooted in the works of
Alfred Marshall, focused on the role of supply and demand in determining prices and output, advocating for
minimal government intervention in markets.
 The influence of this school of thought can be seen in the market-oriented reforms that took place in Russia after
2000, where emphasis was placed on liberalization, privatization, and the development of market mechanisms to
allocate resources. Russian economic policy, especially under the leadership of figures like Alexei Kudrin, moved
toward achieving macroeconomic stability by controlling inflation, reducing public debt, and maintaining a
balanced budget, largely in line with neoclassical prescriptions.
 This period also saw a shift towards monetarist principles, particularly in the realm of monetary policy. Monetarism,
championed by Milton Friedman, emphasizes controlling the money supply as the primary tool for managing
inflation. In Russia, the Central Bank adopted inflation-targeting policies and sought to stabilize the ruble through
tight monetary control, a marked shift from the looser monetary policies of the 1990s.
Ⅰ. Theoretical Foundations of Macroeconomic Concepts and Their Influence on the Historical
Specificity and Evolution of Macroeconomic Planning and Forecasting in Russia
New Keynesian and Institutional Economics in Modern Russia
 In recent years, new Keynesian ideas have gained traction within Russia’s economic discourse. New Keynesianism,
which incorporates elements of both Keynesian and neoclassical thought, focuses on market imperfections, such as
price stickiness, and the role of monetary policy in managing economic cycles. This school of thought has
influenced Russia’s approach to economic stabilization, especially during the global financial crisis of 2008 and the
economic sanctions imposed on Russia after 2014. The government has used both fiscal stimulus and monetary
easing to counter economic downturns, reflecting a more balanced approach between interventionist and marketoriented policies.
 In parallel, institutional economics has grown in importance, emphasizing the role of political, legal, and economic
institutions in shaping economic outcomes. Douglass North and other institutional economists have argued that
effective institutions are critical for economic development. In Russia, the institutionalist perspective has shed light
on the challenges of corruption, weak governance, and inefficient legal frameworks that have hindered sustainable
growth. Recent policy reforms, such as efforts to improve the business environment and enhance transparency,
reflect a growing recognition of these issues.
Ⅱ. SWOT Analysis of Macroeconomic Planning & Forecasting in Russia
Strengths
 Historical Experience in Centralized Planning.
Experience has ingrained a strong tradition of state-led economic
management, which can still be leveraged for strategic long-term
economic projects, especially in sectors like energy and defense.
 Sophisticated Modeling Tools.
In recent decades, Russia has integrated advanced macroeconomic
models such as DSGE and CGE, enabling the government and the
Central Bank to conduct complex forecasting and scenario analysis.
 Institutional Capacity in Fiscal and Monetary Policy.
The Central Bank of Russia has developed a strong track record in
managing inflation through its inflation-targeting regime and tight
monetary policy.
 Natural Resource Base.
Russia’s vast natural resources, particularly in oil and gas, provide a
strong revenue stream that supports macroeconomic planning.
Weaknesses
 Overdependence on Natural Resources.
The country's heavy reliance on oil and gas revenues means its
economy and macroeconomic forecasts are highly sensitive to global
energy prices, leading to unpredictable fiscal revenues.
 Institutional Weaknesses.
Corruption, weak rule of law, and inefficiencies in public
administration undermine the effectiveness of macroeconomic
policies.
 Underdeveloped Financial Markets.
A limited banking sector and underdeveloped capital markets make
it harder for the Central Bank to influence investment and
consumption through interest rate changes.
 Data Quality and Availability.
Inconsistent or incomplete economic data, especially in the early
post-Soviet transition period, continues to challenge accurate
macroeconomic forecasting.
Ⅱ. SWOT Analysis of Macroeconomic Planning & Forecasting in Russia
Opportunities
Threats
 Diversification of the Economy.
 External Shocks and Sanctions
Macroeconomic planning offers an opportunity for the Russian
government to focus on diversifying the economy beyond energy
dependence.
Economic sanctions from Western countries, particularly in response
to geopolitical tensions, limit Russia’s access to global markets,
capital, and technology.
 Integration of Digital Technologies.
 Volatility in Global Energy Prices
Advances in digital technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI),
big data, and blockchain, can enhance Russia’s macroeconomic
forecasting capabilities.
Given Russia's dependence on oil and gas exports, fluctuations in
global energy prices pose a significant threat to its fiscal stability.
 Geopolitical Shifts and Strategic Alliances.
As Russia strengthens ties with non-Western countries (e.g., China,
India), it can use macroeconomic planning to align its economic
policies with new geopolitical realities.
 Policy Coordination and Institutional Reforms.
There is an opportunity to strengthen institutional frameworks,
reduce corruption, and increase the transparency of public
administration.
 Demographic Challenges.
Russia faces long-term demographic decline, with an aging
population and shrinking labor force.
 Global Economic Uncertainty.
Global economic uncertainty, including the potential for financial
crises, trade wars, or prolonged economic stagnation in key partner
countries (e.g., Europe, China), can undermine Russia’s
macroeconomic stability and make it difficult to forecast growth
accurately.
Ⅲ. Policy Recommendations
TOPIC
Diversify the Economic
Base
Recommendation
Focus on reducing
dependence on oil and gas
by promoting the growth of
non-resource sectors such
as technology, agriculture,
and manufacturing.
Justification
Diversifying the economy
will reduce vulnerability to
external shocks, such as
Offerinincentives
fluctuations
global
energyfor
prices,investment
and will
high-tech
create in
more stable,
longterm sources
of economic
industries,
growth.
improve
Implementation
infrastructure
for non-resource
exports,
and
provide support
for small and
Thanks for attention!!!