Stockholm (March 29, 2015) EUROPE: NATO MILITARY BUILD-UP, WITH NO ARMS CONTROL Vladimir P. Kozin – Head of Advisers’ Group, Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, Corresponding Member at the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, Professor, Russian Academy of Military Sciences © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 1 THREE ELEMENTS OF CONCERN RELATED TO EUROPE BMDS TNW © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 CW 2 Mk-41 © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 3 EWR Vardø EWR Thule EWR Fylingdales 4 Aegis ships (the Netherland4444s) US BM44DS IN EUROPE (EPAA): THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION 17 September 2009 ПРО США в Европе: План администрации Обамы (ЕПАП) 17 сентября 2009 г. 24 SM-3 in Poland (+possibly,GBI) 4 US Aegis ships (in Spain) X-Band EWR + BMDS THAAD +SM-3 (sea-based Aegis) + Aegis Ashore (SM-3) 24 SM-3 in Romania AN/TPY-2 + NATO’s ALTBMD + PAC-2 +PAC-3 + tactical nuclear wpns + 6 US Aegis ships © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 4 Aegis capable US ships with SM-3 interceptors Version 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3.6.1. 23 24 23 19 17 16 13 11 ? ? 4.0.1 5.0 5.1 TOTAL 2 0 0 25 4 1 0 29 6 3 0 9 4 0 32 9 6 0 9 8 0 33 9 13 0 35 9 15 1 36 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 29 32 43 Production of SM-3 per year Block I/1A 107 113 113 136 136 136 136 136 136 136 Block IB 1 16 25 61 100 169 251 328 400 472 Block IIA 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 19 31 70 Block IIB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 108 129 138 197 236 305 394 483 567 © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 (Source: US Congress Research Service.2014) 678 5 THE CORE OF THE US BMDS IS SEA-BASED “AEGIS” BMD WITH SM-3 INTERCEPTORS 2009: 2010: 3 КР/CG + 15 ЭМ/DDG = 18 5 КР/CG + 16 ЭМ/DDG = 21 RUSSIA FACES MINIMUM 6 US NAVY COMBAT VESSELS WITH AEGIS BMDS THAT IS WITH 180 SM-2 & SM-3 INTERCEPTORS IN EUROPE AND 8 SUCH SHIPS IN ASIA-PACIFIC WITH 240 SM-3 2015: 5 КР/CG + 25 ЭМ/DDG = 30 (incl. 14 in the Atlantic & 16 in the Pacific) 2041: 84 КР +ЭМ/CG+DDG (or 27% of the entire US Navy) EACH SHIP MAY HAVE 30+ SM-3 INTERCEPTORS Each 24 hours several BMDS ships are sailing in the Black Sea, Baltic Sea, Barents Sea 6 © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 CURRENT THREAT: THE US TNW IN EUROPE IS A LEGASSY OF THE COLD WAR B61-3:170 Kt B61-4: 50 Kt B61-7: 360 Kt (SOA) B61-10: 80 Kt B61-11: 400 Kt (SOA) В61-12: 50 Kt (SOA) DEPLOYED AT 13 BASES IN SIX NATO COUNTRIES Deployment of the US NTW in Europe is a violation of the NPT © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 THE US TNW IN EUROPE: high precision free-fall bombs 7 СИСТЕМА ПРО США/НАТО В ЕВРОПЕ УСИЛИВАЕТСЯ ПУТЕМ СОВЕРШЕНСТВОВАНИЯ И МОДЕРНИЗАЦИИ ТЯО США И НАТО ПЕРЕДОВОГО БАЗИРОВАНИЯ.С ДРУГОЙ СТОРОНЫ, СИСТЕМЫ ПРО США И НАТО ЗАЩИЩАЕТ ТЯО В ЕВРОПЕ US/NATO BMDS IN EUROPE IS BEING STRENGTHENED BY THE UPGRADING AND MODERNIZATION OF THE US/NATO FORWARD-BASED TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN EUROPE ON THE OTHER HAND, THE US BMD IS PROTECTING THEIR TNW IN EUROPE ПРОГРАММА ПРОДЛЕНИЯ СРОКА СЛУЖБЫ ЯДЕРНЫХ АВИАБОМБ В-61 К 2038 ГОДУ ПОТРЕБУЕТ ДО 65 МЛРД.ДОЛЛ. THE SLEP PROGRAM OF THE FREE-FALL NUCLEAR-TIPPED US B-61 AIR BOMBS BY 2038 WILL REQUIRE US $ 65 BILLIONS ОЖИДАЕТСЯ ПРИНЯТИЕ НА ВООРУЖЕНИЕ НОВОЙ АВИАБОМБЫ В-61-12 (400-930 ЕДИНИЦ) A NEW MODIFICATION OF THIS BOMB WILL BE COMISSIONED: B-61-12 (400-930 PIECES) Авиабомбы В-61-7, В-61-11 и В-61-12 рассматриваются американскими военными как тактические, так и стратегические, так как они могут быть доставлены самолетами тактической и стратегической авиации, то есть самолетами F-35 (две бомбы) и B-52H и B-2 (по 16 бомб) Вombs B-61-7, B-61-11 and В-61-12 are considered by the US military both as strategic and tactical, because they can be delivered by both strategic and tactical aircraft, namely В-52Н и В-2А (16 bombs each), as well as by a new Joint Strike Fighter F35 (2 bombs each) © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 8 NO SINGLE NATO STATE-PARTY TO THE CFE TREATY HAS EVER RATIFIED IT There is a need to draft a principally new CFE Treaty, a legally binding one, without flank limitations of TLE and radical disparities in favor of NATO, without artificial linkages with conflict resolution, and without the US TNW and BMDS © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 9 NATO SUMMITS IN CHICAGO & NEWPORT: A QUALITATIVELY NEW TRIAD NATO SUMMIT IN CHICAGO (2012) & IN NEWPORT (2014) PREVIOUS SUMMITS SERIOUS THREAT NW NW CW BMD ICBM CW SLBM Heavy bombers Традиционная триада СНВ Traditional SOA nuclear triad © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 “Старая” диада “Old” diad Since 1989 New combined triad involving strategic and tactical nuclear, conventional weapons and ballistic missile defense 10 NATO decided to demonstrate hostile intentions to Russia and to resort to provocative power projection NATO FORWARD-DEPLOYED POTENTIAL IS ENHANCED RADICALLY & IS MOVING EASTWARDS TO RUSSIA Wales Summit : approved NATO Readiness Action Plan sanctioned the NATO Spearhead Force -VHDJTF (composition in February 2015) established 2 new NATO C3I centers in Poland and Lithuania + 4 more (Bulgaria, Latvia, Estonia, Romania) urged more NATO member-states to join the US BMDS NATO military activity near Russia’s land increased by 5 times In 2015 there will be 200 military drills Wales Summit is the most anti-Russian meeting after the Cold War 1.0 © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 11 NATO DCA NEAR RUSSIA’S TERRITORY NATO AF Operation «Baltic Air Policing» Began in March 2004 over Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia + AWACS are patrolling the airspace The USA has acquired 8 military bases in Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia DCA FROM 15 NATO MEMBER-SATES ARE INVOLVED IN THIS OPERATION AIRCRAFT ARE IN THE AIR 24h/365-366 days per annum © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 12 RUSSIAN AND NATO MILITARY DRILLS IN EUROPE IN 2015 © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 13 Chuck Hagel: “Russia is on NATO’s doorstep” 14 US President Directive № NSPD-66/HSPD-25 signed January 9, 2009 «B. National Security and Homeland Security Interests in the Arctic 1. The United States has broad and fundamental national security interests in the Arctic region and is prepared to operate either independently or in conjunction with other states to safeguard these interests. These interests include such matters as missile defense and early warning; deployment of sea and air systems for strategic sealift, strategic deterrence, maritime presence and maritime security operations; and ensuring freedom of navigation and overflight». «Б. Интересы национальной безопасности и внутренней безопасности в Арктике 1. США имеют широкие и фундаментальные интересы безопасности в Арктическом регионе и готовы действовать там либо индивидуально, либо во взаимодействии с другими государствами с целью защиты указанных интересов. Эти интересы включают такие направления как: противоракетная оборона и средства раннего предупреждения; развертывание средств ВМС и ВВС для обеспечения стратегических морских перевозок, стратегическое ядерное сдерживание, военно-морское присутствие и операции по обеспечению военно-морской безопасности, а также обеспечение свободы навигации и пролетов в воздушном пространстве». © Владимир Козин. 2015 15 What are the major differences between Russian and NATO military exercises? Russia has never been the first nation that started a large-scale of military drills. Russia has resorted to the responsive actions. Russian troops are in their state. American troops are thousands kilometers away from their country. Russia agreed to invite foreign observers to its exercises, including observers to “unexpected” or to previously unannounced drills. Russian western military district has the smallest number of combat units stationed there. NATO forces massively outnumber Russian troops there and they are heavily reinforcing their presence there. © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 16 BETWEEN 1972 AND 2010 SEVEN BILATERAL NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL AGREEMENTS HAVE BEEN SIGNED: SALT-1 (1972) SALT -2 (1979) INF (1987) START-1 (1991) START-2 (1993) SORT (2002) AND START-3 (new START in 2010) THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY KIND OF TALKS ON TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS SINCE 1945 TILL 2015 © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 17 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE COLD WARS 1 & 2 IN TERMS OF ARMS CONTROL THE COLD WAR IN 1946-2014/2015 NEW PHASE OF THE COLD WAR IN 2014/2015 2 х SALT + 4 х START INF ZERO CWC + BWC Land-based + Naval CBMs CFE © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 18 CONTEMPORARY CHALLENGE: A DEEP-SEATED MISTRUST BETWEEN THE USA & RUSSIA IN THE MILITARY DOMAIN 15 MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN GLOBAL ARMS CONTROL BETWEEN RUSSIA & THE USA 1. US regional and global missile defense deployment. 2. Conversion of the US SSBN into SSGN. 3. No desire of the USA to count SOA stored in active reserve. 4. US disagreement to control long-range nuclear-tipped SLCM. 5. The US has no intention to proliferate INCSEA accord on strategic nuclearpowered submarines. 6. US still has tactical nuclear weapons in Europe – outside its territory. 7. US still has offensive nuclear doctrine (general nuclear deterrence and extended nuclear deterrence) – first nuclear strike. 8. No US intention to draft a new CFE (CFE-2). 9. No US desire to reach accord on PAROS. 10.US has no wish to sign ASAT accord. 11. Violation of the INF Treaty by the USA: testing BMD interceptors by using medium-range and “intermediate-range” ballistic missiles. 12. Operation “Baltic Air Policing” conducted by NATO during 24h/365 days 13. Still no ratification of the CTBT by the USA 14. No limitations on combat armed UAVs 15. No limitations on hypersonic conventional weapons with pin-point accuracy 19 © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 CONTINUATION OF THE COLD WAR 1.0 OR THE BEGINNING OF A COLD WAR 2.0? 17 MAJOR THREATS ARE LISTED IN THE UPDATED RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE (DECEMBER 26, 2014) 13 THERE HAVE BEEN IN THE PREVIOUS ONE (2010) © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 20 СОПОСТАВЛЕНИЕ ЯДЕРНЫХ ДОКТРИН МЕЖДУ США И РОССИЕЙ ASSESSMENTS BETWEEN THE US AND RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR DOCTRINES USA 1. Наступательное сдерживание: нанесение первого ядерного удара (упреждающего и превентивного удара)/Offensive deterrence: first-use of NW (pre-emptive & preventive strikes) 2. Безусловное ядерное сдерживание: «мы нанесем удар по любой стране», даже по безъядерной зоне; небольшое исключение (не будет ядерного удара по государствамучастникам ДНЯО, но с исключением: если они соблюдают ДНЯО/ Unconditional deterrence: ”we will attack any nation, even inside the NFZ”; very limited exception (”no” vs NPT memberstates, if they are faithful to the NPT) 3. «Расширенное сдерживание»: ТЯО в Европе в качестве оружия передового базирования, за пределами США/«Extended deterrence»: forward-based land TNW, outside the continental US ПОДДЕРЖИВАЕТСЯ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЙ, РАСШИРЕННОЙ ПРО/ BACKED BY GLOBAL, EXTENDED BMD © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 RUSSIA 1. Оборонительное сдерживание: неприменение ядерного оружия, нет упреждающего и превентивного удара/ Defensive deterrence: no first-use, no preemptive, no preventive strikes 2. Условное сдерживание: ответный удар «если на нас нападут»; нет удара по участникам ДНЯО и безъядерных зон/ Conditional deterrence: responsive attack: “if we are attacked”; no attack of any NPT memberstate and NFZ member-state 3. Отсутствие «расширенного сдерживания»; не развертывает ТЯО за пределами своей территории/ No extended deterrence: no permanent land-based TNW deployment outside Russia ПОДДЕРЖИВАЕТСЯ ПРО ВНУТРИ ГРАНИЦ/ BACKED BY BMD WITHIN ITS BORDERS 21 HOW TO FIND THE WAY OUT FROM THE COLD WAR 2.0? TO ERADICATE ALL LISTED CHALLENGES AND THREATS THE USA MUST PULL BACK ALL ITS TNW FROM EUROPE AND CANCEL ITS THE FISRT-USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS POLICY AN INTERNATIONAL ABM TREATY SHOULD BE ELABORATED SPECIFYING THE MAX CEILINGS ON THE BMD INTERCEPTORS AND SETTING LIMITS ON THEIR DEPLOYMENT OUTSIDE THE OWNER STATES NATO SHOULD STOP ITS CONVENTIONAL MILITARY BUILD-UP NEAR RUSSIA. A NEW CFE TREATY (CFE-2) SHOULD BE DRAFTED. THE BALTIC AIR POLICING OPN HAS TO BE CANCELLED © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 22 HENRY A. KISSINGER “The new Cold War really exists and it represents a danger that can be transformed into “a tragedy” if ignored. Such tragedy can be gradually modified into “a Hot War”. © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 23 Conclusion Instead of imposing the Cold War 2.0 the entire Europe and the world at large really need a global detente that was developing quite successfully during last century RUSSIA CANNOT LET A NEW PHASE OF THE COLD WAR OR A “HOT WAR” TO BE UNLEASHED - EITHER FOR ITSELF OR FOR THE ENTIRE WORLD © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 24 A special US-Russia’s summit is needed to tackle all these issues with a new US President after his inauguration An All-European Security Summit should be also convened to debate all security-related issues that have direct bearing on Europe © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 25 REAL AIMS OF UNLEASHING THE NEW PHASE OF THE COLD WAR The Cold War 2.0 was intentionally initiated by President Barack Obama for several obvious reasons: 1. To undermine Russia’s military and economic potential 2. To create more pro-Western states along the perimeter with the Russian territory 3.To ruin the prestige of the Russian President & to topple him 4. To increase NATO military expenditures 5. To undermine European economy & trade 6. To make Europe more submissive to the USA © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 26 THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE COLD WAR 2.0 and THE COLD WAR 1.0 INTENSIFIED NATO MILITARY ACTIVITY NEAR RUSSIAN TERRITORY BY 5 TIMES IT SLOWED DOWN THE OVERALL ARMS CONTROL PROCESS TRIGGERED ON A TOUGH WAR-FLAGGING RHETORIC VS RUSSIA MUCH TOUGHER ILLEGAL AND UNJUSTIFIED SANCTIONS HAVE BEEN IMPOSED ATTEMPTS TO OVERTHROW THE LEGAL AUTHORITIES IN POST-SOVIET TIME STATES HAVE INTENSIFIED ©Vladimir Kozin. 2015 27 10 ACTIONS THAT HAVE GRADUALLY LEAD TO A COLD WAR 2.0 • US GLOBAL BMD: 1999, 2002 and 2009 • NATO ENLARGEMENT IN 1999-2009 (+ 12 states or + 43%) • THE END OF THE ABM TREATY IN 2002 • THE END OF THE CFE TREATY IN 2007 • GEORGIA’S ATTACKED OF SOUTH OSSETIA IN 2008 • THE US DECISION TO MORDERNIZE THE TNW IN 2010 • THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EPAA 1st PHASE IN 2011 • THE ‘CHICAGO TRIAD’ SET UP IN 2012 AND ITS CONTINUATION IN 2014 • THE USA AND NATO DIRECT INTERFERENCE INTO UKRAINIAN AFFAIRS AND OPEN VERBAL & MATERIAL THREATS TO RUSSIA IN 2014 Even illegal arrests of businessman Viktor Boot in Thailand & pilot Alexander Yaroshenko in Liberia and later sentenced in the USA 28 © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 NEW COLD WAR WILL BE A LONG ONE & MORE DANGEROUS IT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER MILITARIZATION OF THE USA AND NATO IT WILL STALL THE ARMS CONTROL PROCESS, ESPECIALLY IN NUCLEAR FIELED AND THE BMDS, HINDER THE PROCESS OF CREATION OF A NUCLEAR-FREE WORLD IT WILL INCREASE THE GLOBAL MILITARY EXPENDITURES IT WILL BREAK DOWN ESSENTIAL PERSONAL CONTACTS BETWEEN MANY WORLD LEADERS NEW COLD WAR MAY BE TRANSFORMED INTO A “HOT WAR” © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 29 The principle of multipolar world and “mutually assured security” should prevail. The Cold War 2.0 should be stopped and not proliferated into other areas of the globe becoming the Hot War There is the urgent need to carry out a rational reconstruction of the present-day situation and adapt it to the new realities in the system of international relations A special US-Russia’s summit is needed to tackle all these issues with a new US President after his inauguration. An All-European Security Summit should be also convened to tackle all security-related issues that have direct bearing on Europe. © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 30 EXTRA CHALLENGE: STRONG ANTI-RUSSIAN WAR-FLAGGING RHETORIC “RUSSIAN AGGRESSION IN UKRAINE” “RUSSIA’S ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA” “RUSSIA VIOLATED ALL INTERNATIONAL ACCORDS” “Russia ranks second place between Ebola fever & terrorism (ISIS)”: President Obama at the UNO, Democratic Party meeting and in Brisbane “RUSSIA WILL PAY HIGH PRICE” – WHAT FOR? © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 31 “WRITING ON THE WALL” A potential confrontation between Washington and Moscow could be stronger and deeper than during the Cuban missile crisis in October 1962 and after NATO “dual-track decision” stamped in December 1979 The difference between the looming military standoff and these two cases is that during a new one the U.S. will have more interceptors than during 1962 and 1979-1987 confrontation * * * THE TEMPTATION TO DELIVER THE FIRST NUCLEAR STRIKE AND PROTECT THE USA & NATO BY MISSILE “DEFENSE SHIELD” IS GREATER THAN IN THESE TWO HISTORIC CASES, ESPECIALLY WHEN THE NUMBER OF INTERCEPTORS WILL OUTNUMBER THE SOA WARHEADS © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 32 NEW PHASE OF THE COLD WAR IN 2014-2015 The Cold War has not ended by adopting of “The Paris Charter for a New Europe” on November 21, 1990 A motto on “strategic partnership” between Russia and the USA/NATO announced in November 2010 in Lisbon is no longer valid © Vladimir Kozin. 2015 33 « RUSSIAN DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER SERGEY RYABKOV “Nuclear zero is possible. Even those who at the end of 60s were drafting the fundamental Treaty on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons have been talking about it. … Russia is fully committed to its obligations under Article 6 of the NPT. Russia never abstained and will never abstain from talking about the nuclear zero”. (Interview with “The Voice of Russia” broadcasting corporation. 28th May 2013) «Ядерный ноль» возможен, и об этом говорили даже те, кто в конце 1960-х годов разрабатывал фундаментальный Договор о нераспространении ядерного оружия… Россия полностью привержена своим обязательствам по статье 6 ДНЯО, никогда не уходила и не будет уходить от разговора о «ядерном ноле». (Интервью радиовещательной корпорации «Голос России», 28 мая 2013 года) Vladimir Kozin. 2013 ©© Vladimir Kozin. 2013 34