!.". #$!%%& '()#)"*(+ !+,&*-*.: /01234 5678093284: 4 /012;84<7=44 ;>80?80@ AB080/4B4 $C%D#*( 13: 56E128609 AB080/4?25B4F 9E<09 4 G7BE3H62609 *<17842 2-2, I2;2;7J0678802 4 10I03828802 "05B97, 2008 1 #E;229 !.". 'B080/4B7 ;7<9464:. !"#$%&'. (. )*+,-: 2008, +##)-+K*. ./+0 «1'*%*,&'- +-23&4&5» 5365#405 7#+38, +*00&90'&, /"#$%&'*, 7* :-%%*9 :&0;&76&%#. <0%*3/ %-04*5=#>* /"#$%&'- 0*04-365?4 6#';&&, 7+*"&4-%%8# -34*+*, 3 @!-AB1, )-;&*%-6C%*, D%04&4/4# «A80E-5 B'*6- !7+-36#%&5»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«K'*%*,&"#0'*>* "/:-»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– LDLFS()V^ M)M[DH D. AM[[SILFM^)M ....................................................................................................... 115! !"#$%&-'#(&)*"#+,*# '-(#.*-/0 ................................................................................................................................. 117! SO+&+ 5.! #)&P% ")L%O* !)M-+ (&(O+L C%O)&%C%M()S) (+T*-+O+).......................................... 120! 5.1.! (<PS[\ L<[<! D Q<QVF.D S_ QID(S)S)DN . IMHADAMOUD(LN LFIM)M( ........................................................ 120! 5.1.1.! 1&)#/< F&/&E. ................................................................................................................................................... 120! 5.1.2.! >.&$/#'- +H&)*'&+(* ..................................................................................................................................... 124! 5.1.3.! 1I%,<8 ;&'#. !IJ/: (#+(*.&=-%*# '&)#/* F&/&E....................................................................................... 125! 5.2.! IMLBDIS)DS (<PS[D L<[<! L !TSF<( )M.<Q[S)DN TS[<ASTSL.<@< .MQDFM[M ............................................ 128! 5.2.1.! K#/&=#"#+,*J ,-3*(-/, ,-, L-,(&. I,&%&'*"#+,&2& .&+(- ........................................................................ 128! 5.2.2.! 1&)#/< @E,-+- .................................................................................................................................................. 133! 5.2.3.! 1&)#/< 7. 1I%,<8, M. ;&'#.-, M. !IJ/- ......................................................................................................... 133! 5.2.4.! 9,/-) &$.-5&=-%*6 ............................................................................................................................................ 138! !"#$%&-'#(&)*"#+,*# '-(#.*-/0 ................................................................................................................................. 142! C+M-N 2. !P#(* V+(-)!)& T!)*,&)LM-&+ ....................................................................................................... 146! SO+&+ 6.! !P#)( -!$L+ * !+MT!%L%O%#*% L)R)L)&. T!)DO%"+ D%L#)M-*. ............................. 146! 6.1.! !IZM)DHMWDN .M. ]<I(M !@[!Z[S)DN P!M[DH(M................................................................................................ 146! 6.2.! )<A<S Q<)D(M)DS P!M[DH(M. (<PS[\ A)!FIS))S^ D((D@IMWDD F<PMI<..................................................... 150! 6.3.! ZSP)<LF\: (MLBFMZV QI<Z[S((V ........................................................................................................................ 153! 6.4.! LQI<L )M QI<P<A<[\LFADS D .M[<IDD .................................................................................................................. 156! !"#$%&-'#(&)*"#+,*# '-(#.*-/0 ................................................................................................................................. 160! SO+&+ 7.! 7.1.! !P#)( ,%"O* * +S!+!#P% !%V)!"P........................................................................................... 165! I<[\ M@IMI)VX IS]<I( A QIS<P<[S)DD ZSP)<LFD: <QVF )SHMADLD(<^ D)PDD ............................................. 165! 3 7.2.! I<LF QI<DHA<PDFS[\)<LFD FI!PM A ISH![\FMFS IS]<I( QIMA L<ZLFAS))<LFD )M HS([O A HMQMP)<^ ZS)@M[DD (D)PDN) ............................................................................................................................................................... 168! 7.3.! <Z!TS)DS A QI<WSLLS PSNFS[\)<LFD D Q<[!TS)DS H)M)D^ <F PI!@DX: TS[<ASTSL.D^ .MQDFM[ D FSX)DTSL.D^ I<LF A !L[<ADNX «HS[_)<^ ISA<[OWDD». ................................................................................................ 174 ! 7.4.! .<(Q[S.L)<S IMHADFDS PSISA)D........................................................................................................................... 180! !"#$%&-'#(&)*"#+,*# '-(#.*-/0 ................................................................................................................................. 183! SO+&+ 8.! (+T*-+O * V*#+#M)&P% !P#(* ................................................................................................... 189! 8.1.! PA<^LFAS))<LF\ PS)SY)<^ LDLFS(V A IMHADAMOUDXLN LFIM)MX ................................................................. 189! 8.2.! (D.I<.ISPDF D Z<I\ZM L ZSP)<LF\O A ZM)@[MPSB: <QVF @I1(D) ZM).M ....................................................... 193! 8.3.! ZM).<AL.DS !L[!@D P[N ZSP)VX: <QVF D)PDD ................................................................................................... 197! !"#$%&-'#(&)*"#+,*# '-(#.*-/0 ................................................................................................................................. 199! C+M-N 3. '()#)"*(+ !+,&*-*.: T)O*-*()-'()#)"*C%M(*Q T)LR)L ......................................... 202! SO+&+ 9.! #+ T$-* ( L%")(!+-*C%M()"$ )DW%M-&$ ............................................................................ 202! 9.1.! <ZUMN XMIM.FSIDLFD.M MAF<IDFMI)VX D PS(<.IMFDTSL.DX LDLFS(. ........................................................... 202! 9.2.! QSISX<P)VS Q<[DFDTSL.DS LDLFS(V .................................................................................................................. 204! 9.3.! QISHDPS)FL.DS D QMI[M(S)FL.DS LDLFS(V........................................................................................................ 205! 9.4.! IMHPS[S)DS A[MLFD. QI<Z[S(V ]SPSIM[DH(M. ................................................................................................... 209! 9.4.1.! ;-5)#/#%*# =/-+(*: 3.#*'EN#+(=- )#:#%(.-/*5-:**. ................................................................................. 209! 9.4.2.! O-,(&.0 +(-$*/<%&+(* L#)#.-(*=%&2& 2&+E)-.+(=- ................................................................................ 211! 9.4.3.! P&-/*:*&%%0J 3.&#,( 4. @<8*+- –"@E"Q# 3.-=*(< ='#+(#, "#' =*+#(< 3&&)*%&",#" ........................... 211! !"#$%&-'#(&)*"#+,*# '-(#.*-/0 ................................................................................................................................. 213! SO+&+ 10.! T)O*-*C%M(+. '()#)"*. !+,&*-*.. .................................................................................... 218! 10.1.! AHMD(<PS^LFADS QIMADFS[\LFAM D IV).M ...................................................................................................... 218! 10.2.! IMHADFDS .M. LA<Z<PM: .<)WSQWDN M. LS)M ................................................................................................... 220! 10.3.! @<L!PMILFA< D @IMYPM)S: I<[\ Q<[DFDTSL.D M.FDA)<@< 1[S.F<IMFM ...................................................... 223! 10.4.! D(SSF [D L<WDM[\)V^ .MQDFM[ A[DN)DS )M 1.<)<(D.!? ........................................................................... 231! 10.5.! PS(<.IMFDN D HP<I<A\S <ZUSLFAM ................................................................................................................... 235! !"#$%&-'#(&)*"#+,*# '-(#.*-/0 ................................................................................................................................. 242! C+M-N 4. SO)D+O*,+K*. * !+,&*-*% .................................................................................................................... 246! SO+&+ 11.! '()#)"*C%M(+. T)O*-*(+ & )-(!P-)Q '()#)"*(% ................................................ 246! 11.1.! FID MLQS.FM @[<ZM[DHMWDD ............................................................................................................................... 246! 11.1.1.! 7/&$-/*5-:*6 ,-, .-5=*(*# '*.&H&56J+(=#%%0H +=65#J............................................................................... 246! 11.1.2.! 7/&$-/*5-:*6 ,-, .-5=*(*# '#G)E%-.&)%0H I,&%&'*"#+,*H &.2-%*5-:*J ................................................ 246! 11.1.3.! 7/&$-/*5-:*6 ,-, &$&+(.#%*# 2/&$-/<%0H 3.&$/#' ...................................................................................... 252! 11.2.! LFIMFS@DN D(Q<IF<HM(SUS)DN ........................................................................................................................ 252! 11.3.! LFIMFS@DN Q<<UIS)DN 1.LQ<IFM ...................................................................................................................... 255! 11.4.! PD]]SIS)WDMWDN )MWD<)M[\)VX ]DI( A !L[<ADNX [DZSIM[DHMWDD 1.<)<(D.D ................................... 256! !"#$%&-'#(&)*"#+,*# '-(#.*-/0 ................................................................................................................................. 260! C+M-N 5. '()#)"*(+ !+,&*-*.: )TP- )-L%ON#PR M-!+# & M-+#)&O%#** * ")L%!#*,+K** !P#)C#)Q '()#)"*(* .......................................................................................................... 264! SO+&+ 12.! XY#+. ()!%.: !)ON S)M$L+!M-&+ & M-+#)&O%#** M)&!%"%##)Q '()#)"*(*. ....................................................................................................................................................................... 264! 12.1.! QIDTD)V AVL<.DX FS(Q<A I<LFM. I<[\ A)SB)S@< IV).M. ........................................................................... 264! 12.2.! 1.<)<(DTSL.D^ I<LF: A.[MP TS[<ASTSL.<@< .MQDFM[M .............................................................................. 267! !"#$%&-'#(&)*"#+,*# '-(#.*-/0 ................................................................................................................................. 271! SO+&+ 13.! (*-+Q: $MT%R* * T!)DO%"P L)S)#.XW%S) !+,&*-*.. ............................................. 274! 13.1.! M@IMI)MN IS]<I(M D LS[\L.<X<HN^LFAS))V^ I<LF A .DFMS. ....................................................................... 274! 13.2.! QIS<P<[S)DS @S)PSI)VX IMH[DTD^ A QI<WSLLS (<PSI)DHMWDD ................................................................... 279! 13.3.! !LD[S)DS IS@D<)M[\)<@< )SIMAS)LFAM D )MQIMA[S)DN PADYS)DS IMZ<TS^ LD[V A .DFMS ................... 284! !"#$%&-'#(&)*"#+,*# '-(#.*-/0 ................................................................................................................................. 289! C+M-N 6. T!)DO%"P !)MM** & ()#-%(M-% '()#)"*(* !+,&*-*...................................................... 294! SO+&+ 14.! T!)DO%"P !)MM** & ()#-%(M-% '()#)"*(* !+,&*-*............................................. 294! 14.1.! 1BS[<)V IMHADFDN .MQDFM[DH(M .................................................................................................................... 294! 14.1.1.! >#.=0J IQ#/&%, ,&(&.0J )-=%& EQ#/. ........................................................................................................... 294! 4 14.1.2.! 9(&.&J IQ#/&%, &( ,&(&.&2& '0 &(+(-/*. .................................................................................................. 297! 14.1.3.! "D- 3&/E+(-%&",#" -)'*%*+(.-(*=%&-,&'-%)%&J +*+(#'0....................................................................... 307! 14.2.! 1.<)<(DTSL.DS L!Z\S.FV Q<LFL<ASFL.<^ I<LLDD: D)LFDF!WD<)M[\)V^ M)M[DH ................................. 321! 14.2.1.! M&'&H&56J+(=-: %#.0%&"%&# 3.*+3&+&$/#%*# , .0%,E. ................................................................................ 321! 14.2.2.! O*.'-: I,&%&'*,- L*5*"#+,*H /*:, 3-(#.%-/*5'-, $-.(#.- * .I,#(-. ..................................................... 325! 14.2.3.! !3-)&, 2&+E)-.+(=#%%&+(* - +(-%&=/#%*# "-+(%&J +&$+(=#%%&+(*. ........................................................ 328! 14.3.! )MHMP . TMLF)<^ L<ZLFAS))<LFD D[D AQSI_P . TMLF)<^ L<ZLFAS))<LFD?................................................ 334! 14.3.1.! A+(-(&"%-6 2&+E)-.+(=#%%-6 +&$+(=#%%&+(< ............................................................................................. 334! 14.3.2.! D-5-) , "-+(%&J +&$+(=#%%&+(*? .................................................................................................................. 336 ! 14.3.3.! 93#.#) , "-+(%&J +&$+(=#%%&+(*? ................................................................................................................ 342 ! !"#$%&-'#(&)*"#+,*# '-(#.*-/0 ................................................................................................................................. 346! SO+&+ 15.! M-!+-%S*. * -+(-*(+ !)MM*QM()Q ")L%!#*,+K** .................................................... 350! 15.1.! IS.<(S)PMWDD P[N I<LLDD: FDQDT)VS <BDZ.D A AVZ<IS QID<IDFSF<A ..................................................... 350! 15.2.! FM.FDTSL.DS QID<IDFSFV .................................................................................................................................. 352! 15.3.! LFIMFS@DTSL.DS HMPMTD ..................................................................................................................................... 357! 15.4.! A<H(<Y)VS LWS)MIDD IMHADFDN ....................................................................................................................... 358! !"#$%&-'#(&)*"#+,*# '-(#.*-/0 ................................................................................................................................. 359! T!*"%!#PQ T%!%C%#N &)T!)M)& ( '(,+"%#$ T) &M%"$ ($!M$ ....................................................... 364! -%"+-*C%M(*Q TO+# ($!M+ «'()#)"*(+ !+,&*-*.».............................................................................. 366! 5 &&%L%#*% A %-04*5=&# 3+#,5, '*>:- 3 +#2/6C4-4# >6/$*'*>* 4+-%0R*+,-;&*%%*>* 07-:- I*00&5 2-,#4%* *404-6- *4 7#+#:*38G 04+-%, & 30` $*6CE# & $*6CE# 7+#3+-=-#405 3 :#+J-3/ 4+#4C#>* ,&+-, *04+##, "#, 7+#J:#, 04*&4 2-:-"- *03*#%&5 30#>* $*>-4043- K'*%*,&"#0'*9 ,806& +-26&"%8G %-7+-36#%&9 & E'*6. A 7#+3/? *"#+#:C K4* *4%*0&405 ' 4#*+&& K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +-23&4&5, '*4*+-5 7+#:04-365#4 :65 %-E#9 04+-%8 %# 4*6C'* 4#*+#4&"#0'&9, %* & 7+-'4&"#0'&9 &%4#+#0. I-23&4&# K4* ,%*>*,#+%89 7+*;#00, 3'6?"-?=&9 >6/$*'&# &2,#%#%&5 3 4#G%&"#0'*9, K'*%*,&"#0'*9, 0*;&-6C%*9 & 7*6&4&"#0'*9 0R#+-G. L6*J%*04C 7+*$6#,8 2-'6?"-#405 3 4*,, "4* +-26&"%8# 7-+4&& 784-?405 0*2:-4C %# *:%/ ,*:#6C, - %#0'*6C'* 3-+&-%4*3 +-23&4&5, +#-6&2-;&5 '*4*+8G $/:#4 2-3&0#4C %# 04*6C'* *4 K'*%*,&"#0'&G, 0'*6C'* *4 $804+* ,#%5?=&G05 7*6&4&"#0'&G /06*3&9. . 4*,/ J# K4& 3-+&-%48 :*6J%8 $84C *+>-%&"%* 37&0-%8 3 ,&+*3*# G*259043*, :*6J%8 +-00,-4+&3-4C05 '-' 0*04-365?=-5 "-04C K3*6?;&& ;#6*04%*9 ,&+*3*9 ;&3&6&2-;&&. .+&2&0, +-07-: & '+/E#%&# '*6*%&-6C%*9 0&04#,8 7+&3#6& ' 7*536#%&? %- 2#,%*, E-+# $*6CE*9 >+/778 %#2-3&0&,8G >*0/:-+043 (0,. F-$6. 10-1). )- &G :*6? 3 %-"-6# XXI 3#'7+&G*:&6*0C 3/4 ,&+*3*>* %-0#6#%&5 & *'*6* 40% ,&+*3*>* AAQ (0,.: +&0. 0-1 & 0-2) 3% 14% !"#$%#& '()*(+ # ,-.-/%01 23/#+0 '()*(4%01 25#1 # 6#7((+-0%)+#& /-8#(% 90*#%)+01 2:-/#+0 # ;0/#<)+#& <0))-&% =$%01 25#1 5% 30% 7% 23/#+0 + >8? (* ,070/@ 10% A'B # ,CD 8% 23% EF,G (%- .+">401 ,H2) ,H2 !"#. 0-1. $"%&'&( )*#(+()"( ' 2005 ,. ('#(,& 6,589 -+%.. /(+.) ?+(&"%*,: World Urbanization Prospects, 2005 Revision. P.31. 20% 3% !"#$%#& '()*(+ # ,-.-/%01 23/#+0 '()*(4%01 25#1 # 6#7((+-0%)+#& /-8#(% 90*#%)+01 2:-/#+0 # ;0/#<)+#& <0))-&% =$%01 25#1 20% 23/#+0 + >8? (* ,070/@ A'B # ,CD 7% 35% 5% 2% 8% EF,G (%- .+">401 ,H2) ,H2 !"#. 0-2. $"%&'&0 112 3& 224 ' 2005 ,. ('#(,& 56 5%+). .&++.) ?+(&"%*,: Human Development Report, 2006. P.334. 6 F-$6&;- 0-1 S01> I;090<Z37[284: 82<79454/0564 B0308473H8>F 4 I03EB0308473H8>F 56;78 9 RR 92B2 1921 – D+-' 1922 – S>&7#4 1923 – )#7-6 1943 – L&+&5, [&3-% 1945 – D%:*%#2&5 1946 – D*+:-%&5, ]&6&77&%8 1947 – D%:&5 & Q-'&04-% 1948 – <03*$*J:#%&# Z&+,8, W#96*% 1949 – [-*0 1951 – [&3&5 1952 – +#3*6?;&5 3 S>&74# 1953 – .-,$*:J1956 – (-+*''*, F/%&0, L/:-% 1957 – @-%-, (-6-90'-5 ]#:. 1958 - @3&%#5 1959 – +#3*6?;&5 %- ./$# 1960 – .&7+ & 17 -R+&'-%0'&G 04+-%: P->*,#5, Z#+#> L6*%*3*9 .*04&, A#+G%55 A*6C4-, @-$*%, .*%>* (.&%E-0-), .-,#+/%, .*%>* (Z+-22-3&6C), .&7+, (-3+&4-%&5, (-:->-0'-+, (-6&, )&>#+, )&>#+&5, L#%#>-6, L*,-6&, F*>*, W#%4+-6C%*-R+&'-%0'-5 +#07/$6&'-, T-: 1961 – ./3#94, LC#++--[#*%#, F-%>-%C&'1962 – M6J&+, Z/+/%:&, I/-%:-, F+&%&:-: & F*$->*, !>-%:-, N,-9'-, H-7-:%*# L-,*# 1963 – H-%2&$-+, .#%&5 1964 – H-,$&5, (-6-3&, (-6C41965 – (-6C:&30'-5 +#07., L&%>-7/+, @-,$&5 1966 – Z-+$-:*0, Z*403-%-, @-9-%-, [#0*4* 1967 – )-+*:%-5 P#,*'+-4&"#0'-5 I#07/$6&'- ^#,#% 1968 – (-3+&'&9, L3-2&6#%:, 1'3-4*+&-6C%-5 @3&%#5, )-/+/ 1970 – F*%>-, ]&:J& 1971 – Z-G+#9%, .-4-+, <$a#:&%#%%8# M+-$0'&# 1,&+-48 1973 – @3&%#5-Z&00-/, Z->-,0'&# *-31974 – @+#%-:1975 – M%>*6-, (*2-,$&', <04+*3- H#6#%*>* ,80-, .*,*+0'&# *-3-, L-%-F*,# & Q+&%0&7&, L/+&%-,, Q-7/--)*3-5 @3&%#5 1976 – L#9E#6C0'&# *-31977 – PJ&$/4& 1978 – L*6*,*%*38 *-3-, P*,&%&'-, F/3-6/ 1979 – L#%4-A&%0#%4 & @+#%-:&%8, L#%4-[?0&5, .&+&$-4& 1980 – H&,$-$3#, A-%/-4/ 1981 – Z#6&2, M%4&>/- & Z-+$/:1989 –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`, 27*06#:%&# 7*63#'- +-2+83 %# /,#%CE&605, - 38+*0. )#6C25 0'-2-4C, "4* 4#*+&5 0*;&-6C%*-K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +-23&4&5 "4+#4C#>* ,&+-" 0*30#, 387-6- &2 7*65 2+#%&5 %-E&G K'*%*,&04*3. A 7*06#3*#%%8# >*:8 -'4&3%* *$0/J:-6&0C +-26&"%8# 7+*$6#,8 '*6*%&-6C%8G & 2-3&0&,8G 04+-%, - 0 38G*:*, &G %- 7*6&4&"#0'/? -+#%/ – +-23&3-?=&G05 04+-%. Q*: 4#+,&%*, «+-23&3-?=&#05 04+-%8» 7*:+-2/,#3-6& %#2-3&0&,8# 04+-%8 M2&&, MR+&'& & [-4&%0'*9 M,#+&'&. Q*06#:%&# *03*$*:&6&0C #=# 3 7#+3*9 4+#4& XIX 3#'-, 7*K4*,/ :65 -R+*--2&-40'&G 04+-% 7*2:%## 7*53&605 %*389 4#+,&% – «*03*$*:&3E&#05 04+-%8». L 38G*:*, %- 7*6&4&"#0'/? -+#%/ :#054'*3 %*38G 04+-% 3*2%&'6- 7+*$6#,- *7+#:#6#%&5 '+&4#+&#3 *$=%*04& +-23&3-?=&G05 04+-%. S06& 3 '*6*%&-6C%89 7#+&*: 3 '-"#043# 4-'*38G 3804/7-6& *40/4043&# %#2-3&0&,*04&, 7*6*J#%&# K'076/-4&+/#,*>* 7+&:-4'- & ->+-+%*-08+C#3-5 07#;&-6&2-;&5, 4* 0 7*6/"#%&#, >*0/:-+043#%%*>* 0/3#+#%&4#4- & %-"-6- 7+*;#00*3 &%:/04+&-6&2-;&& 7#+389 & 4+#4&9 7+&2%-'& *47-6&, 7*K4*,/ 7*06# :*04&J#%&5 %#2-3&0&,*04& 3 3*2%&'6- «4#*+&5 4+#G ,&+*3», 3 '*4*+*9 *:%&, &2 >6-3%8G 7+&2%-'*3 06/J&6- «3%#$6*'*3*04C» K4&G 04+-%. P#9043&4#6C%*, #06& +-23&48# 04+-%8 3 G*:&6& 3 $6*' )MF<, - 0*&-6&04&"#0&# 3 9 <+>-%&2-;&? 3-+E-30'*>* :*>*3*+- (<AP), 4* $*6CE&%043* *03*$*:&3E&G05 04+-% 38$+-6& %#7+&0*#:&%#%&# 3 '-"#043# *0%*3*%*9 7+*3*2>6-E#%%*9 7*6&4&"#0'*9 *+&#%4-;&&. A 1969 >*:/ 38G*:&4 '%&>- L.D. F?6C7-%*3. «<"#+'& 7*6&4&"#0'*9 K'*%*,&& (+-23&3-?=&#05 04+-%8)»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«F+#4&9 ,&+ 3 0*3+#,#%%*, ,&+#»2. <%- 6#>6- 3 *0%*3/ '*66#'4&3%*>* &2:-%&5 «H-+/$#J%89 A*04*' & 0*3+#,#%%*04C»3. Q*2:%## 7*53&6-0C ;#6-5 0#+&5 '%&>, 3 '*4*+8G *$0/J:-6&0C +-26&"%8# -07#'48 0*;&-6C%*9 04+/'4/+8 04+-% «4+#4C#>* ,&+-». )-&$*6CE## 3%&,-%&# 7+&36#'-6& ,#6'-5 $/+J/-2&5, %#R-$+&"%89 7+*6#4-+&-4 & ,-+>&-6C%8# 06*&4. A4*+*9 '+&4#+&9, 0R*+,/6&+*3-%%89 L.D. F?6C7-%*38,, 6#> 3 *0%*3/ '%&> D%04&4/4,&+*3*9 K'*%*,&'& & ,#J:/%-+*:%8G *4%*E#%&9 (D(1(<), /"#%8# '*4*+*>* +-23&3-6& 4#*+&? «2-3&0&,*>* +-23&4&5 '-7&4-6&2,-», &:#9%8, 3:*G%*3&4#6#, '*4*+*9 $86 A.A. .+86*3. L 1974 %-"&%-#4 &2:-3-4C05 0#+&5 '%&>, '-J:-5 &2 '*4*+8G %-"&%-6-0C 06*3-,& «I-23&3-?=&#05 04+-%8:». Q#+3*9 04-6- *$*$=-?=-5 '%&>- «I-23&3-?=&#05 04+-%8: 2-'*%*,#+%*04&, 4#%:#%;&&, 7#+07#'4&38»5 7*: +#:-';&#9 A.[. F5>/%#%'*. A 1983 '*%;#7;&5 7+#4#+7#3-#4 &2,#%#%&5, "4* %-G*:&4 *4+-J#%&# 3 ,*%*>+-R&& «I-23&3-?=&#05 04+-%8: #:&%043* & ,%*>**$+-2&#», 38E#:E#9 7*: +#:-;&#9 A.[. B#9%&0-, (.M. T#E'*3-6. F+#4&9 7+&2%-', -';#%4&+*3-3E&9 3%&,-%&# %- 07#;&R&"#0'&G "#+4-G 3*07+*&23*:043-, $86 7#+#*0,806#% M.Q. .*6*%4-#38, & 6#> 3 *0%*3/ #>* 4#*+&& «:#2&%4#>+-;&& K'*%*,&'&»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«F&7*6*>&5 %#0*;&-6&04&"#0'&G 04+-% (*784 ,%*>*,#+%*>* 04-4&04&"#0'*>* -%-6&2- %-+*:%8G G*259043)»8. .*%'+#4&2-;&5 *4:#6C%8G '+&4#+&#3 2%-"&4#6C%* *$*>-4&6- %-"-6C%89 7*:G*:, *:-'* 7+&3#6- ' /4+-4# ;#6*04%*04& &0G*:%*9 '*%;#7;&&. Q*K4*,/ %# /:&3&4#6C%*, "4* 3 '*%;# 70-G – %-"-6# 80-G >>. 3*2*$%*365#405 45>- ' '*,76#'0%*,/ 7*:G*:/. <4"-04& *%- %-E6- /J# *4+-J#%&# 3 7/$6'-;&5G A.[. B#9%&0, 38E#:E&G 3 1978-1980 >>. A '-"#043# '+&4#+&#3 &, $86& 0R*+,/6&+*3-%8 06#:/?=&# 7+&2%-'&: 1) L*;&-6C%*-7*6&4&"#0'-5 *+&#%4-;&5; 2) ]*+,-;&*%%*-/'6-:%-5 04+/'4/+-; 3) !+*3#%C & 4&7 +-23&4&5 7+*&23*:&4#6C%8G 0&6; 1 L.D. F?6C7-%*3. «<"#+'& 7*6&4&"#0'*9 K'*%*,&& (+-23&3-?=&#05 04+-%8)». (., 1969. [#3'*30'&9 M.D. «F+#4&9 ,&+ 3 0*3+#,#%%*, ,&+#», (. 1970. 3 «H-+/$#J%89 A*04*' & 0*3+#,#%%*04C» (1-# &2:. A 2-G 4*,-G, (. 1974; 2-# &2:. A 3-G 4*,-G, (. 1980). 4 «L*;&-6C%-5 04+/'4/+- +-23&3-?=&G05 04+-%», (. 1978; «(#6'-5 $/+J/-2&5: *$6&' & 0/:C$8 '6-00-», (. 1978; «Q+*;#008 :#'6-00&+*3-%&5 3 04+-%-G A*04*'-», (. 1981; «)#R-$+&"%89 7+*6#4-+&-4 & 0*;&-6C%-5 K3*6?;&5 04+-% 2-+/$#J%*>* A*04*'-», (. 1985; «@*+*: 3 R*+,-;&*%%*, +-23&4&& A*04*'-», (. 1986; «L*;&-6C%89 *$6&' A*04*'-», (. 1999 & :+. 5 «I-23&3-?=&#05 04+-%8: 2-'*%*,#+%*04&, 4#%:#%;&&, 7#+07#'4&38». Q*: +#:. A.[. F5>/%#%'*. (. 1974. 6 «I-23&3-?=&#05 04+-%8: #:&%043* & ,%*>**$+-2&#». Q*: +#:. A.[. B#9%&0-, (.M. T#E'*3-. (. 1983. 7 «D%4#>+-;&*%%8# 7+*;#008 3 &%:&90'*9 K'*%*,&'#», (. 1977; – «1'*%*,&'- D%:&&: *$=-5 G-+-'4#+&04&'-». Q*: +#:. @... B&+*'*3-. (. 1980; .*6*%4-#3 M.Q. «…»; «.-7&4-6&2, %- A*04*'# 3* 34*+*9 7*6*3&%# XX 3#'-». Q*: +#:. A.@. I-045%%&'*3- & @... B&+*'*3-, (. 1995. 8 «F&7*6*>&5 %#0*;&-6&04&"#0'&G 04+-% (*784 ,%*>*,#+%*>* 04-4&04&"#0'*>* -%-6&2- %-+*:%8G G*259043)», (. 1976. 2 10 4) Q*6*J#%&# 3 ,&+*3*, '-7&4-6&04&"#0'*, G*259043#; 5) 1'*%*,&"#0'&9 7*4#%;&-6 +-23&4&5. <%& 7*6/"&6& :-6C%#9E## +-23&4&# 3 ,*%*>+-R&& %*3*>* :&+#'4*+- D%04&4/43*04*'*3#:#%&5 S.(. Q+&,-'*3- «A*04*' 7*06# '+-G- '*6*%&-6C%*9 0&04#,8»9. A %#9 $86& 0R*+,/6&+*3-%8 06#:/?=&# '+&4#+&&: - <:%*04*+*%%55 2-3&0&,*04C *4 «;#%4+*3» ,&+*3*>* '-7&4-6&2,- 6&$* -0&,,#4+&"%-5 32-&,*2-3&0&,*04C; - (%*>*/'6-:%*04C K'*%*,&'&; - <4%*0&4#6C%* %&2'&9 /+*3#%C +-23&4&5 7+*&23*:&4#6C%8G 0&6; - )#0*3,#04&,*04C &%4#+#0*3 +-23&3-?=&G05 04+-% 0 &,7#+&-6&04&"#0'&,& &%4#+#0-,& & 7*6&4&'*9 +-23&48G '-7&4-6&04&"#0'&G >*0/:-+043. )*38, 04-6* %# 4*6C'* 7*%&,-%&# #:&%043-, %* & +-26&"&9, 0/=#043*3-3E&G ,#J:/ +-23&3-?=&,&05 04+-%-,&. F-'&# +-26&"&5 784-6&0C 3 K4* 3+#,5 *$a50%&4C 6#%&%0'&, 2-'*%*, * %#+-3%*,#+%*04& K'*%*,&"#0'*>* & 7*6&4&"#0'*>* +-23&4&5. L-,- K'*%*,&"#0'-5 & 7*6&4&"#0'-5 :&RR#+#%;&-;&5 +-23&3-?=&G05 04+-% *$a50%56-0C %# 4*6C'* />6/$65?=&,05 K'*%*,&"#0'&, +-2+83*, ,#J:/ ;#%4+*, & 7#+&R#+&#9. !0&6#%&# :&RR#+#%;&-;&& 3%/4+& «4+#4C#>* ,&+-», 7* ,%#%&? +*00&90'&G /"#%8G, *$a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«A*04*' 7*06# '+-G- '*6*%&-6C%*9 0&04#,8», (. 1982. Q*:+*$%## 0,.: «I-23&3-?=&#05 04+-%8: #:&%043* & ,%*>**$+-2&#». Q*: +#:. A.[. B#9%&0-, (.M. T#E'*3-. (. 1983. 10 11 4/#Q*%- ?.9. Q+*$6#,8 ,*:#6&+*3-%&5 K'*%*,&'& +-23&3-?=&G05 04+-% (' '+&4&'# $/+J/-2%*9 4#*+&& & ,#4*:*6*>&&). [.,1970; PE5<'*% F.4. L&04#,%89 -%-6&2 K'*%*,&'& +-23&3-?=&G05 04+-% (Q+*$6#,8 ,#4*:*6*>&&). (.: )-/'-, 1972; 4=+#%<#= 1.1. F#*+&& K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +*04- +-23&3-?=&G05 04+-%. (.: (806C, 1974; F#%(IQ S. "F+#4&9 ,&+" Q+*$6#,8 +-23&4&5. (.: Q+*>+#00, 1974; A$'*%+,*J T.U. .*%;#7;&& ,#J:/%-+*:%*>* K'*%*,&"#0'*>* 7*+5:'-. (.: (806C, 1977; @*)/#J% D.4. Z/+J/-2%8# 4#*+&& K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +-23&4&5 ('+&4&"#0'&9 -%-6&2). (.: (806C, 1978; H-+/$#J%8# '*%;#7;&& K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +-23&4&5 04+-% MR+&'&. .+&4&"#0'&9 -%-6&2. (.: )-/'-. 1980; P&//&%(-J 9.1. .+&2&0 $/+J/-2%8G 4#*+&& +-23&4&5 *03*$*:&3E&G05 04+-%. (.: (806C, 1982; F/-=%0J U.?. )#,-+'0&040'-5 7*6&4K'*%*,&5 * 7+*$6#,-G *404-6*04& & 2-3&0&,*04& 3 +-23&3-?=#,05 ,&+#. (.: )-/'-, 1982; F#%(#Q S. Z/+J/-2%8# & "%*3*6#38#" 4#*+&& ,&+*3*>* '-7&4-6&04&"#0'*>* G*259043-. (.: (806C, 1984; I-23&4&# -2&-40'&G *$=#043 XVII - %-"-6- XX 3#'- –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uman Development Report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nderdevelopment and Development. Ed. by H. Bernstein. L., 1973; Development Theory. Four Critical Studies. Ed. by D.Lehman. L., 1979; Theories of Underdevelopment. Sd. by I. Roxborough L., 1979; Wilber C.K. The Political Economy of Underdevelopment. N.Y. 1981; Nafziger E.W. The Economics of Developing Countries. Belmont, 1984. Ch. 7; Preston P.W. Theories of Development. L., 1982; Col#man D., Nixson F. Economics of Change in Less Developed Countries. 2 Ed. Oxford. 1986.Lh.2; Wilferd L.D. Conflicting Paradigmes in the Economics of Developing Nations. N.Y., 1986; Rostow W.W. Theories of Economic Growth from David Hume to the Present N.Y. 1992; Todaro M.P. Economic Development. 5th Ed. L., 1994. Ch 3; Ingham B. Economics and Development. L., 1995; Ingham B., Ross C. Economic and Development:. L., 1995, Ch. 4-6; Gillis M., Perkins D.H., Roemer M., Snodgrass D.R. Economics of Development. 4th Ed. N.Y. 1996. Ch. 2-4; Basu K. Analytical Development Economics The Less Developed Economy Revisited. L., 1997; Hayami Y. Development Economics from the Poverty to Wealth of Nations. Oxford, 1997; Hess P., Ross C. Economic Development: Theories, Evidence and Policies. Philadelphia etc., 1997. Ch. 1,2,3,5; Skarstein R. Development Theory. Delhi, 1997; Ray D. Development Economics. Princeton, 1998; Mier G., Raush J. Leading Issues in Economic Development 7th Ed. Oxford, 2000; Development: Theory, Policy and Practice. Ed. by Jan K. Coetzee, etc. Oxford, 2001; Van den Berg H. Economic Growth and Development. Lincoln, 2001; Easterly W. The Elusive Quest for Growth. The MIT Press, Cambrige, 2002; Thirlwall A.P. Growth & Development with special reference to developing economies 8th Ed. London, NY, 2006 12 Q*:+*$%* +-00,-4+&3-#405 7+*$6#,- «path dependence»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a#'48 7*040*3#40'*9 I*00&& (&%04&4/;&*%-6C%89 -%-6&2). T-04& 1-3, 2*# &2:. Q*: +#:. I.(. )/+##3-, (.: (<)], 2003. (www.mpsf.org) 3. L0I0384623H87: 3462;76E;7 1*) .(% Bee ?. D04*+&5 ,&+*3*9 K'*%*,&'&. 1945-1990. (., 1994. H".(%"A# ?.I. " .%. <4 ->+-+%*>* *$=#043- ' >*0/:-+043/ 30#*$=#>* $6->*0*04*5%&5. (*:#+%&2-;&5 H-7-:%*9 S3+*78 0 XV 3. :* 1980-G >>. (., 1998. D%04&4/;&*%-6C%-5 K'*%*,&'-: !"#$%&' / 7*: *$=. +#:. M. <6#9%&'-, (.: D)]IM-(, 2007 $:%.*+D ?. L*3+#,#%%8# 7+*$6#,8 „4+#4C#>* ,&+-". (.: Q+*>+#00. 1972. !&9()7(%, G., J"%.(++ K.L. .-' H-7-: 04-6 $*>-48,. )*3*0&$&+0', 1995. 4() I. I-23&4&# '-' 03*$*:- / Q#+. 0 -%>6. Q*: +#:. & 0 7*06#06*3. I.(.)/+##3.( 4&5& M. H->-:'- '-7&4-6-. Q*"#,/ '-7&4-6&2, 4*+J#043/#4 %- H-7-:# & 4#+7&4 7*+-J#%&# 3* 30`, *04-6C%*, ,&+#. (.: <6&,7-Z&2%#0, 2001. .( 4&5& M. D%*9 7/4C. )#3&:&,-5 +#3*6?;&5 3 „4+#4C#, ,&+#". (.: Catallaxy, 1995. =&.*%& $.2. 1'*%*,&"#0'*# +-23&4&#. (.: O)DFD, 1997. N"A# HO&) F#*+&5 K'*%*,&"#0'*9 &04*+&&. Q#+. 0 -%>6. / <$=. +#:. & 304/7. L4-4C5 I.(. )/+##3-, (.: A*7+*08 K'*%*,&'&, 2003 M%;*%. K. Z6->*0*04*5%&# :65 30#G. (., )-"-6--Q+#00, 1991. 4. <L)<A)VS D)FSI)SF-ISL!ILV 4.1. 1CBM!D4;AMDVC A;74D?W4X?? 13 United Nations http://www.un.org World Bank http://www.worldbank.org International Monetary Fund (IMF) http://www.imf.org Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development HTTP://WWW.OECD.ORG Asian Development Bank http://www.adb.org Inter-American Development Bank http://www.iadb.org African Development Bank http://www.afdb.org Global Development Network HTTP://WWW.GDNET.ORG OneWorld http://www.oneworld.net World Health Organization http://www.who.int Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) http://www.fao.org United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) http://www.unido.org/ United Nations Online Network in Public Administration and Finance (UNPAN) http://www.unpan.org United Nations Centre for Regional Development http://www.uncrd.or.jp Division for Public Administration and Development Management (DPADM) http://www.unpan.org/dpepa.asp United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) http://www.undp.org/ European Development Research Network (EUDN) http://www.eudn.org 4.2. 45*5"#5"/(#A"( -*5(%"*+> 14 4.2.1."2\1E87;018>2 56764564?25B42 7Z2865697 WORLD BANK: DATA AND STATISTICS HTTP://WWW.WORLDBANK.ORG/DATA/ WORLD DEVELOPMENT REPORTS (WORLD BANK) HTTP://ECON.WORLDBANK.ORG/WDR/ UNITED NATIONS STATISTICS DIVISION HTTP://UNSTATS.UN.ORG/UNSD/ UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT HTTP://WWW.UNCTAD.ORG/ HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT HTTP://HDR.UNDP.ORG/DEFAULT.CFM OECD: STATISTIC HTTP://WWW.OECD.ORG/STATSPORTAL HTTP://WWW.SOURCEOECD.ORG/CONTENT/HTML/PORTAL/STATISTICS/STATISTICS.HTM?COMM=STATIS TI0000&TOKEN=00499A737D390911051FC307BE53A1 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND: COUNTRIES DATA HTTP://WWW.IMF.ORG/EXTERNAL/INDEX.HTM IMF DISSEMINATION STANDARDS BULLETIN BOARD HTTP://DSBB.IMF.ORG/APPLICATIONS/WEB/DSBBHOME/ WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION: HEALTH DATA HTTP://WWW.WHO.INT/RESEARCH/EN/ WHO STATISTICAL INFORMATION SYSTEM (WHOSIS)HTTP://WWW3.WHO.INT/WHOSIS/MENU.CFM 4.2.2. !2Z40873H8>2 56764564?25B42 7Z2865697 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK HTTP://WWW.ADB.ORG/ECONOMICS/DEFAULT.ASP AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP HTTP://WWW.AFDB.ORG/STATISTICS.HTM?N1=9&N2=0&N3=0 INTER-AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK HTTP://WWW.IADB.ORG/INTAL/INGLES/BDI/I-BDI.HTM 4.3. G(A&5&%>( 3&+(9)>( *.%(#* ' %C)(5( 4.3.1. D4J34062B4 D4J34062B7 O4J2;67;4E/7 ("Moscow Libertarium Library (Russian)") http://libertarium.ru/library #7=40873H87: A32B6;0887: J4J34062B7. M%-6&4&"#0'&# ,-4#+&-68 http://www.nel.ru/analytdoc/svodka.html; 4.3.2. !0554@5B42 0;Z784<7=44 4 57@6> S05E17;569288>@ $8492;54626 – &>5[7: UB037 'B080/4B4 www.hse.ru *85646E=40873H87: AB080/4B7 http://ie.boom.ru/1/index.htm \E;873 "&0I;05> AB080/4B4"- http://infomag.mipt.rssi.ru/data/j112r.html \E;873 "'B080/4B7 4 /762/764?25B42 /2601>" http://www.cemi.rssi.ru/emm/home.htm \E;873 "T;0J32/> 620;44 4 I;7B64B4 EI;793284:"- http://www.ptpu.ru *85646E6 "'B080/4?25B7: [B037". S732;2: AB080/45609. http://www.ise.spb.ru/gallery/main.html *85646E6 AB080/4?25B4F I;0J32/ I2;2F0180Z0 I2;4017 http://www.iet.ru K286;73H8>@ AB080/4B0-/762/764?25B4@ 485646E6- http://www.cemi.rssi.ru !7J0?4@ =286; AB080/4?25B4F ;2G0;/ I;4 T;794623H5692 !0554@5B0@ V212;7=44http://wcer.park.ru K286;73H8>@ D78B !0554@5B0@ V212;7=44- http://www.cbr.ru "05B095B7: /2\J78B095B7: 973]687: J4;\7 - http://www.micex.ru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§2). L.124-145. GC%((' !.$. 1'*%*,&'- +-23&4&5. I-$*"-5 4#4+-:C. (. )*+,-. 2006.A3#:#%&#. P<Q<[)DFS[\)MN [DFSIMF!IM: . 3*7+*0/ *$ *$=#9 4#*+&& +-23&3-?=&G05 04+-% // )-+*:8 M2&& & MR+&'&. 1989. b 6. 1990. b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a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` 3 1949-1950 >>. @. H&%>#+ & I. Q+#$&E. !"#%8# 7*784-6&0C *$a50%&4C 06-$*+-23&4*04C *7+#:#6#%%8, %-$*+*, 32-&,*0352-%%8G K'*%*,&"#0'&G & :#,*>+-R&"#0'&G R-'4*+*3. A 7*06#3*#%%8# >*:8 7*53&6&0C +-2%**$+-2%8# 3-+&-%48 "7*+*"%8G '+/>*3 %&=#48". A *0%*3# &G - 0**4%*E#%&# ,#J:/ +*04*, %-0#6#%&5 & &2,#%#%&#, K'*%*,&"#0'&G /06*3&9. .*6#$-%&# 0352-%* 0 /6/"E#%&#, &6& 0 /G/:E#%&#, 0+#:%#:/E#3*>* /+*3%5 %-;&*%-6C%*>* :*G*:-. Q*38E#%&# '-"#043- J&2%& *$8"%* $804+* "0a#:-#405" 7*06#:/?=&, +*04*, %-0#6#%&5. Q+&3#:#, 3 '-"#043# 7+&,#+- 4#*+&? '3-2&04-$&6C%*>* +-3%*3#0&5 -,#+&'-%0'*>* /"#%*>* R7;94 O2@J28567@87 (1922-1994, 0,. +&0. 1-1). !6/"E#%&# 7&4-%&5, !,#%CE#%&# >*6*:*3*' P+*$6#%&# 2#,#6C%8G /"-04'*3 Q-:#%&# 0,#+4%*04& I*04 %-0#6#%&5 !"#.1-1 =(&%"< A'*9"#5*7"+D)&,& %*')&'(#"< N. K()7()#5*0)* C&+(-=/#%& 3&: Leibenstein H. Economic Backwardness and Economic Growth. Studies in the Theory of Economic Development. New York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i – +-3%*3#0%89 0+#:%#:/E#3*9 :*G*: Ri - +#0/+08 !"#.1-2 6'*9"#5*7"+D)&( %*')&'(#"( ' "5%(5D(- -"%(" (3& N. K(07()#5*0)C) F&+(-=/#%& 3&: Leibenstein H. Op.cit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`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airoch P. Economics and World History. Myth and Paradoxes. London, 1993. P. 7 S06& %- *0& -$0;&00 *46*J&4C 0+#:%#:/E#3*9 :*G*: 3 2-3&0&,*04& *4 7*38E-?=&G R-'4*+*3, - %- *0& *+:&%-4 – 0+#:%#:/E#3*9 :*G*: 3 2-3&0&,*04& *4 7*%&J-?=&G R-'4*+*3, 4* 7*+*"%89 '+/> %&=#48, 0"&4-#4 X. [#9$#%04-9%, ,*J#4 $84C 7+#:04-36#% 06#:/?=&, *$+-2*, (+&0. 1-3) y " !"#. 1-3. 2&%&/)>0 A%C, )"8(5> (3& X. K(07(0)#5*0)C) F&+(-=/#%& 3&: Leibenstein H. Op.cit, P.98 S – 4*"'- +-3%*3#0&5 %&2E#>* /+*3%5 :*G*:Zt – 0+#:%#:/E#3*9 :*G*: 7+& /06*3&& :#9043&5 4*6C'* 7*%&J-?=&G R-'4*+*3 Xt – 0+#:%#:/E#3*9 :*G*: 7+& /06*3&& :#9043&5 4*6C'* 7*38E-?=&G R-'4*+*3 I-23&4&# 2-3&0&4 *4 >6/$&%8 3*2:#9043&5 %- 4+-:&;&*%%/? K'*%*,&'/ 7*38E-?=&G & 7*%&J-?=&G R-'4*+*3. P*7/04&,, %-"-6C%89 /+*3#%C :*G*:- +-3#% (, #06& 3*2:#9043&# 7*38E-?=&G R-'4*+*3 0&6C%##, 4* 7+*&0G*:&4 :3&J#%&#, +#2/6C4-4*, '*4*+*>* 5365#405 7*%&J#%&# /+*3%5 :*G*:-. Q+& K4*, 7*38E-?=&# R-'4*+8 6&EC *06-$65?4 *$=## 7-:#%&#. 19 Q2/28 -71\4B45678 "031794: (4;Z4<4: S;E<4: +;/284: +<2;J7@1\78 -E;B/284: D230;E554: "7B21084: (7<7F5678 -E;=4: D03Z7;4: !E/>84: "2B54B7 !0554: O7694: R0;9764: T03H[7 O4697 '56084: M3097B4: &28Z;4: "73H67 C2F4: T0;6EZ734: (0;2: (X\87:) M309284: S;2=4: (4I; #097: ,237814: *<;743H *5I784: M48Z7IE; *6734: S2;/784: .I084: V;78=4: U92=4: V483:814: +956;734: &234B0J;46784: D23HZ4: (78717 #412;3781> L784: +956;4: U92@=7;4: *537814: #0;92Z4: -71\4B45678 -E;B/284: $B;7487 (4;Z4<4: S;E<4: !0554: (E92@6 M7E1095B7: +;794: U92@=7;4: *0;1784: .I084: D;7<434: $<J2B45678 "2B54B7 *6734: +;Z286487 S2;/784: M4;4: T7B45678 D230;E554: *<;743H L784: V;78=4: Q2/28 (7<7F5678 D23HZ4: U92=4: MU+ +956;4: S08B08Z (M+!) #412;3781> T0;6EZ734: #097: ,237814: (78717 D7F;2@8 V483:814: &234B0J;46784: "08Z034: +956;734: %Z4I26 C2F4: (4I; "73H67 M309284: C434 O4978 M48Z7IE; *814: T03H[7 (0;2: (X\87:) O]B52/JE;Z +<2;J7@1\78 -2 *;37814: *;37814: (467@ 0 MU+ O]B52/JE;Z 10 8 6 4 2 -4 -6 ;-++"*(-%& 3&: Human Development Report 2006. P. 331-334. !"#. 1-4. 4%(.)(,&.&'>( 5(-3> 3%"%&#5* 112 )* .CQC )*#(+()"< ' 1990-2004 ,,. (' %) Q+& 30#9 -$04+-'4%*04& 4#*+&& 7*+*"%*>* '+/>- %&=#48, *$+-=-#4 %- 0#$5 3%&,-%&# 4*4 R-'4, "4* ,%*>&# &2 %&G -';#%4&+/?4 3%&,-%&# %- *7-0%*04& 0%&J#%&5 0+#:%#:/E#3*>* :*G*:-. P#9043&4#6C%*, 3 +#2/6C4-4# 380*'&G 4#,7*3 +*04- %-0#6#%&5 & ,#:6#%%8G – AAQ, 7+*&0G*:&4 0%&J#%&# AAQ %- :/E/ %-0#6#%&5. M%-6*>&"%-5 0&4/-;&5 06*J&6-0C & 3 7*06#+#R*+,#%%*9 I*00&&, 7+-3:- %# 04*6C'* 3 +#2/6C4-4# #04#043#%%*>* 7+&+*04- %-0#6#%&5, 0'*6C'* 3 +#2/6C4-4# *4+&;-4#6C%8G 4#,7*3 +*04- AAQ (0,. +&0. 1-4). . 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 !"#. 1-5. 112 )* .CQC )*#(+()"< 3& 224 2004 ,.. (' %) ;-++"*(-%& 3&: Human Development Report 2006. P. 331-334. 20 A &4*># I*00&5 30` $*6## & $*6## 0:3&>-#405 7* E'-6#: AAQ %- :/E/ %-0#6#%&5, 7+*7/0'-5 37#+#: 30` %*38# & %*38# 04+-%8 4+#4C#>* ,&+-, 7+#3+-=-50C &2 3#6&'*9 :#+J-38 3* 34*+*0*+4%*# >*0/:-+043*, 0 '*4*+*, 30` $*6## & $*6## 7#+#04-?4 0"&4-4C05 0&6C%8# ,&+- 0#>* (0,. +&0. 1-5). L#9"-0 7* AAQ %- :/E/ %-0#6#%&5 (0 /"#4*, 7-+&4#4- 7*'/7-4#6C%*9 07*0*$%*04& :*66-+-) I*00&5 %-G*:&4C05 %- *:%*, /+*3%# 0 4-'&,& 04+-%-,& '-' X*+3-4&5, [-43&5, (#'0&'-, Z*6>-+&5. P+/>*9 +-2%*3&:%*04C? "7*+*"%8G '+/>*3 %&=#48" 5365?405 4#*+&&, *$a50%5?=&# /2*04C 3%/4+#%%#>* +8%'- & (&6&) %#G3-4'/ +#0/+0*3 :65 ,*:#+%&2-;&&13. F-'*38, %-7+&,#+, 3*22+#%&5 -,#+&'-%0'*>* /"#%*>*, 7+*R#00*+- .*6/,$&90'*>* /%&3#+0&4#4- I->%-+- )/+'0#. )#G3-4''-7&4-6-, 7* #>* ,%#%&?, 7+&3*:&4 ' %&2'*9 7+*&23*:&4#6C%*04& 4+/:-, "4* *$/06*36&3-#4, 3 03*? *"#+#:C, %&2'&9 /+*3#%C :*G*:*3. <40?:- –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urkse R. Problems of Capital Formation in Underdevelopment Fountries. Oxford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irtshaftsdienst, 1964, Y4 13 L,. %-7+. Baran P.A. The Political Economy of Growth. New Delhi, 1962. 21 L*>6-0%* '#9%0&-%0'*9 4+-:&;&&, 7*+*"%89 '+/> %&=#48 0352-% 0 %&2'&, /+*3%#, :*G*:-, '*4*+89 *$a50%5#405 %&2'&, /+*3%#, 7*4+#$6#%&5 & %#380*'&9 /+*3#%C 0$#+#J#%&9. )&2'&9 /+*3#%C 7*4+#$6#%&5 *$*+-"&3-#405 %#KRR#'4&3%8, 07+*0*,, '*4*+89 07*0*$043/#4 /2'*,/ 3%/4+#%%#,/ +8%'/ & %&2'&, 4#,7-, +*04- &%3#04&;&&, -, *%& 3 03*? *"#+#:C, 7+&3*:54 ' %&2'*9 KRR#'4&3%*04& 7+*&23*:043-, %&2'*,/ /+*3%? 7+&$86C%*04& & %&2'&, 04&,/6-, ' +*04/ 7+*&23*:043-, "4* 3 '*%#"%*, 0"#4#, *$a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`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the tr-ditional society), 2. 7#+&*: 0*2:-%&5 7+#:7*086*' :65 326#4- (the preconditions for take-off), 3. 326#4 (the take-off), 4. :3&J#%&# ' 2+#6*04& (the drive to maturity), 5. K7*G- 380*'*>* ,-00*3*>* 7*4+#$6#%&5 (the age of high mass consumption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ostow W. The Take-off into Self-sustained Growth // The Economics of Underdevelopment. 2nd Ed. L., I960. P. 154- 186. 16 Rostow W. W. The Stages of Economic Growth. A Non-communist Manifesto. Cambridge, 1960; Idem. The Process of Economic Growth. The 2nd Ed. Oxford, 1960. P. 307 - 331. 17 The Economics of Take-off into Sustained Growth // Proceeding of a Conference Held by the International Economic Association / Ed. by W.W. Rostow. L., 1963 23 3. 7*6&4&"#0'-5 7*$#:- 04*+*%%&'*3 ,*:#+%&2-;&& K'*%*,&'& %-: 2-=&4%&'-,& 4+-:&;&*%%*>* *$=#043-. A*2%&'%*3#%&# *"->*3 %*3*9 &%04&4/;&*%-6C%*9 04+/'4/+8 :*6J%* *$#07#"&4C, 7* ,806& !. I*04*/, +-07+*04+-%#%&# 7#+3*%-"-6C%*>* &,7/6C0- +*04- %- 30? K'*%*,&"#0'/? 0&04#,/ (7/4#, ,*$&6&2-;&& '-7&4-6- &2 3%/4+#%%&G &04*"%&'*3, +#&%3#04&;&& 7+&$86#9 & 4.:.). !"#.1- 10. 45*."" RA&)&-"/(#A&,& %&#5* ' %*9+"/)>; #5%*)*; -"%&'&,& ;&9<0#5'* >.*'#"-%*#: D?F Z94 – D&=0# *%)E+(.*-/<%0# +(.-%0 Z2&-=&+(&"%&J 45** ?+(&"%*,: D.>. PE5%#:&=- D.>. T,&%&'*"#+,*J .&+( = *+(&.*"#+,&' ,&%(#,+(#. F>$., 1996. F. 106 S(5'(%5*< #5*."< – 7#+&*: ":3&J#%&5 ' 2+#6*04&" –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ostow W.W. The Process of Economic Growth. P. 319 24 +-23&4&# "#6*3#'-19. F#, 0-,8, *% 784-605 %-,#4&4C 7#+07#'4&3/ +-23&4&5 & 0*3+#,#%%8G *$=#043 H-7-:-. ).Q. ./2%#;*3- 0G#,-4&"#0'& &2*$+-J-#4 04-:&& !.! I*04*/ 06#:/?=&, *$+-2*, (0,. +&0. 1-10). )- +&0/%'# 1-10 7+*,8E6#%%89 7#+#3*+*4 0**43#4043/#4 3-9 04-:&& I*04*/, 04-:&5 2+#6*04& – 4-9, ,-00*3*# 7+*&23*:043* – 5-9, &%R*+,-;&*%%-5 04-:&5 – 6-9. T4*$8 %->65:%## &2*$+-2&4C '*%;#7;&& I*04*/, %-+&0/#, >+-R&' (0,. +&0. 1-11). <46*J&, 7* *0& -$0;&00 3+#,5 0 /'-2-%&#, 38:#6#%%8G !.!. I*04*/ 04-:&9, - 7* *0& *+:&%-4 0+#:%#:/E#3*9 :*G*:. P65 y 4+-:&;&*%%*>* *$=#043(L+#:%#:/E#3*9 :*G*:) G-+-'4#+%* '*6#$-%&# %*:%*, & 4*, J# /+*3%#, 0+#:%#:/E#3*9 :*G*:, 4* %#,%*>* /3#6&"&3-#405, 4* 7-:-#4 7*: 36&5%&#, /G/:E#%&5 0**4%*E#%&5 J&2%#%%8# 0+#:043/ %-0#6#%&#. A* 34*+*9 -;714=408802 M0<17842 &<326 L94\2842 04-:&&, 7#+#G*:%*9 ' t I;21I05>30B B <;230564 0J^25690 (&;2/:) 326#4/, 0&4/-;&5 %#0'*6C'* 13: 9<3267 +-04#4 !"#.1-11. 6&)B(3B"< E.E. !&#5&C: ,%*@"/(#A*< /6/"E-#405: 0+#:%#:/E#3*9 :*G*:, ")5(%3%(5*B"< *:%-'*, #=` %#6C25 ?+(&"%*,: Hess P., Ross C. Economic Development: Theories, Evidence and >*3*+&4C * %#*$+-4&,8G &2,#%#%&5G. [&EC 04-:&5 326#4- 7#+#3*:&4 0+#:%#:/E#3*9 :*G*:, %- '-"#043#%%* %*389 J&2%#%%89 /+*3#%C & >6-3%*# 0*2:-#4 7+#:7*086'& :65 %#*$+-4&,*>* (G*45 & ;&'6&"#0'*>*) +*0433#+G. !7<94642 I;4 67B0/ I01F012 I084/7265:, I;2\12 952Z0, B7B 548084/ 9>50B4F 62/I09 ;0567. @6/$*'&# 0*;&-6C%8#, &%04&4/;&*%-6C%8# &2,#%#%&5 *'-283-?405 '-' $8 3 4#%&, %7#+#:%&9 76-% 38G*:&4 0**4%*E#%&# &%3#04&;&9 & 4#,7*3 +*04- 3-6*3*>* %-;&*%-6C%*>* 7+*:/'4-. F#*+&5 04-:&9 +*04- 7+#:04-365#4 0/=#043#%%89 E-> 37#+#: 7* 0+-3%#%&? 0 4#*+&5,& 7#+3*9 7*6*3&%8 XX 3#'-. A,#04# 0 4#,, K4- '*%;#7;&5, 7+#4#%:/?=-5 %- *$a50%#%&# &04*+&"#0'*>* 7+*;#00- +-23&4&5 "#6*3#"#043-, %# 03*$*:%- *4 0/=#043#%%8G %#:*04-4'*3. A*-7#+38G, *%- G-+-'4#+&2/#4 K'*%*,&"#0'&# *4%*E#%&5 %# 0&04#,%*, -%-6&2&+/5 6&EC &G *4:#6C%8# K6#,#%48. N3%* %#:**;#%&3-?405 0*;&-6C%*-7+-3*38# ,*,#%48. A*-34*+8G, 3*6C%* &6& %#3*6C%* &0'-J-#405 &04*+&"#0'&9 7+*;#00, 4-' '-' -$0*6?4&2&+/#405 6&EC *:&% 7#+&*: +-23&4&5 - 7#+&*: ,*:#+%&2-;&&, 04-:&5 7*:>*4*3'& & +-23#+483-%&5 7+*,8E6#%%*9 +#3*6?;&&. P+/>&# '-"#043#%%8# K4-78 3 +-23&4&& *$=#043-, 3 "-04%*04&, 2-,#%- 7+&03-&3-?=#>* G*259043- 7+*&23*:5=&, (%#*6&4&"#0'-5 +#3*6?;&5) & &%:/04+&-6C%*>* *$=#043- - 7*04&%:/04+&-6C%8, (%-/"%*-4#G%&"#0'-5 +#3*6?;&5) %# 7*6/"-?4 %&'-'*>* *4+-J#%&5. A-4+#4C&G, 0-,- 7+*,8E6#%%-5 +#3*6?;&5 4+-'4/#405 %#0'*6C'* *:%*04*+*%%#. )7#+#:%&9 76-% 38:3&>-?405, >6-3%8, *$+-2*,, 0*;&-6C%*-70&G*6*>&"#0'&# G-+-'4#+&04&'&, *04-3655 3 4#%& 30? >-,,/ 0*;&-6C%*-K'*%*,&"#0'&G 7*06#:043&9, 0352-%%8G 0 7#+#G*:*, *4 ->+-+%*>* *$=#043- ' &%:/04+&-6C%*,/. D, %-'*%#;, 3-"#43#+48G, %#*$G*:&,* *4,#4&4C :*3*6C%* -$04+-'4%89 G-+-'4#+ '*6&"#043#%%8G '+&4#+&#3, 7+#:6*J#%%8G :65 38:#6#%&5 04-:&9. A 4#*+&& "0-,*7*::#+J&3-?=#>*05 +*04-" $*6CE/? 6*>&"#0'/? %->+/2'/ %#0#4 4#2&0 *$ /:3*#%&& :*6& 7+*&23*:043#%%8G &%3#04&;&9 3 %-;&*%-6C%*, :*G*:#. (#J:/ 4#, *% 53%* 7+*4&3*+#"&4 &04*+&"#0'*,/ *784/ +-23&48G '-7&4-6&04&"#0'&G 04+-%. .-' 07+-3#:6&3* 2-53&6 L. ./2%#;, :*65 3%/4+#%%#>* %-'*76#%&5 3 %-;&*%-6C%*, :*G*:# 7#+#: 04-:&#9 326#4- 3* ,%*>&G 04+-%-G $8619 L,.: Rostow W.W. Politics and the Stages of Growth. Cambridge. The University Press. 1971. P.230. D04*+&? +-2+-$*4'& 3*7+*0- $*6## 7*:+*$%* 0,*4+& 3 '%&>#: Rostow W.W. Theory of Economics Growth from David Hume to the Present. With Perspective to the Next Century N.Y. Oxford University Press, 1992. 25 2-,#4%* 38E# 5% (3 LBM 3 40 — 50-# >*:8 XIX 3. *%- 0*04-3656- 15 — 20%, 3 .-%-:# 3 1870>.— 15, 3 1890>.— 15,5 & 3 1900 >. — 13,5%), & /:3*#%&5 ## 3 G*:# 326#4- 4-' & %# 7+*&2*E6*. LG#,- !. I*04*/, 2-,#"-#4 L. ./2%#;, 0'*+## ",*>6- $8 0**43#4043*3-4C «'*,,/%&04&"#0'&, 326#4-,»"20, 7*0'*6C'/ 3 7+*;#00# "0*;&-6&04&"#0'*9 &%:/04+&-6&2-;&&" :#9043&4#6C%* 7+*&2*E6* (G*45 & %$*6## 380*'*, /+*3%#) /:3*#%&# %*+,8 7+*&23*:043#%%*>* %-'*76#%&5. )#0,*4+5 %- *"#3&:%8# :65 ,%*>&G K'*%*,&04*3 %#:*04-4'&, '*%;#7;&5 7#+#G*:- ' "0-,*7*::#+J&3-?=#,/05 +*04/" *'-2-6- $*6CE*# 36&5%&# %- 6&:#+*3 "4+#4C#>* ,&+-" & $86&07*6C2*3-%- 3 7+*;#00# 0*2:-%&5 %*38G 4#*+&9 ,*:#+%&2-;&& - '*%;#7;&9 "$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-". 1.3. -20;4: "J03H[0Z0 603?B7" F#*+&& "$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-" (big push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` & +-07+*04+-%&4C %- :*6>*0+*"%89 7#+&*:. Q*784'- +#E#%&5 K4*9 7+*$6#,8 $86- 7+#:7+&%54!02/ R7;;010/ (1900 –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s). A87/0' +#-6C%* 2-3&0&4 6&EC *4 *:%*>* +#0/+0-, - &,#%%* Y '-7&4-6-. D%3#04&;&*%%89 6-> :65 /7+*=#%&5 +-0"#4*3 7+&%&,-#405 +-3%8, %/6?. Q+&+*04 0*3*'/7%*>* 07+*0- 2-3&0&4 *4 7+&+*04- &%3#04&;&9 1 1 #Y = m $ #Y= #Y % #I 1&# s >:#: m- ,/6C4&76&'-4*+ +-0G*:*3 c- 7+#:#6C%-5 0'6*%%*04C ' 7*4+#$6#%&?; s- 7+#:#6C%-5 0'6*%%*04C ' 0$#+#J#%&?. !3#6&"#%&# 0*3*'/7%*>* 7+#:6*J#%&5 ,*J#4 $84C 2-7&0-%* 06#:/?=&, *$+-2*,: #Y = ' $ #K &6& #Y =' $ I >:#: '- 7+#:#6C%-5 7+*&23*:&4#6C%*04C '-7&4-6I- &%3#04&;&& Q*0'*6C'/ 7+#:#6C%-5 7+*&23*:&4#6C%*04C '-7&4-62-:-#405 4#G%*6*>&#9, - *%- $804+* %# ,#%5#405, 4* R-'4&"#0'& '= const. A /06*3&5G +-3%*3#0&5 0*3*'/7%89 07+*0 +-3#% 1 0*3*'/7%*,/ 7+#:6*J#%&?, 06#:*3-4#6C%*: #I = ' $ I &6& s %954 L0/7; (1914-1997) #I % ' $ s. I 20 21 Kuznets S. Notes on Take-off // The Economics of Take-off into Sustained Growth. P. 34, 41. Rosenstein-Rodan P.N. Problems of Industrialization of Estern and South-Eastern Europe// The Economics Journal. 1943. Vol. 53, June/September. 26 Q*0'*6C'/ 3 /06*3&5G +-3%*3#0&5 I = S, - S=s $ Y, #Y %-;&*%-6C%*>* :*G*:- +-3%8 4#,7-, +*04- &%3#04&;&9: Y D4-', +-3%*3#0%89 4#,7 +*04- :*G*:- (7+& 7+*&23*:043#%%8# ,*=%*04&) 7+5,* 7+*7*+;&*%-6#% * 7+& K4*, s – 0onst, 4* 4#,78 +*04#I % % ' $ s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` +-%CE# (3 1939 >.) 7*784-605 7*04+*&4C 07#;&-6C%/? ,*:#6C K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +*04-, 3'6?"&3 3 %#` K%:*>#%%/? R/%';&? &%3#04&;&9. P65 K4*>* *% 7*784-605 :*7*6%&4C ,/6C4&76&'-4*+ .#9%0- 7+&%;&7*, -'0#6#+-4*+- & 33#6 3 ,*:#6C *J&:-%&5 7+#:7+&%&,-4#6#9. <% &0G*:&6 &2 4*>*, "4* 6?$*# &2,#%#%&# :*G*:- 38283-#4 0**43#4043/?=## &2,#%#%&# &%3#04&;&9 7+5,* 7+*7*+;&*%-6C%* &2,#%#%&? !0@ R7;;01 (1900–1978) :*G*:-:It = v$(Yt - Yt-1), >:# v -'0#6#+-4*+. Q+#:7+&%&,-4#6&, '-' 7+&3&6*, 76-%&+/?4 *$a#, 0*$043#%%*>* 7+*&23*:043- &0G*:5 &2 0&4/-;&& 06*J&3E#905 3 7+#:E#043/?=&9 7#+&*:, 4.#. 7+#J:# 30#>* *4 0**4%*E#%&5 07+*0- & 7+#:6*J#%&5. )- 528'# R*+,/6 K4* ,*J#4 $84C 7+#:04-36#%* 06#:/?=&, *$+-2*,: Y t & Y t &1 Y & Yt & 2 % ' t &1 Y t &1 Yt & 2 S06& ' =1, 4* 07+*0 3 7+#:E#043/?=#, 7#+&*:# $86 +-3#% 7+#:6*J#%&?, #06& ' < 1 4* 07+*0 3 7+#:E#043/?=#, 7#+&*:# $86 %&J# 7+#:6*J#%&5, #06& ' > 1 4* 07+*0 3 7+#:E#043/?=#, 7#+&*:# $86 $*6CE# 7+#:6*J#%&5. F-'&, *$+-2*,, ,8 ,*J#, 2-7&0-4C *$a#, 0*3*'/7%*>* - Y & Yt & 2 * 7+#:6*J#%&5 3 :-%%*, >*:/ '-' Yt % Yt &1 ++ ' t &1 . 1 (( , - *$a#, 0*3*'/7%*>* 07+*0- (7+& Yt & 2 , ) I v (Yt & Yt &1 ) +-3#%043# I = S) '-' : Yt % t % s s I-3%*3#0%89 K'*%*,&"#0'&9 +*04 7+#:7*6->-#4 +-3#%043* 0*3*'/7%*>* 07+*0- & 0*3*'/7%*>* 7+#:6*J#%&5: - Y & Yt & 2 * v (Yt & Yt &1 ) % Yt &1 ++ ' t &1 . 1 (( s Yt & 2 , ) - Y & Yt & 2 * v (Yt & Yt &1 ) (( . 1 $ % ' ++ t &1 S06& 0*3*'/7%89 07+*0 $86 +-3#% 0*3*'/7%*,/ s Y t &1 , Yt & 2 ) 7+#:6*J#%&?, 4* ' =1. F*>:- 3 4#'/=#, 7#+&*:# 7+#:7+&%&,-4#6& 0*G+-%54 4# J# 0-,8# 4#,78 Y & Y t & 1 Y t &1 & Y t & 2 # Y t +*04- 4.#.: t % % Y t &1 Yt & 2 Y t &1 #Y t v #Y t #Y t s F*>:- $ . % % . 1 , &6& s Y t &1 Y t &1 Yt &1 v & s s , *$#07#"&3-?=## +-3%*3#0%89 /+*3#%C 3 K'*%*,&'# (& 0**43#4043#%%* L**4%*E#%&# v&s 7*6%*# &07*6C2*3-%&# 7+*&23*:043#%%8G ,*=%*04#9), $86* %-23-%* X-++*:*, ">-+-%4&+*3-%%8, 27 F#,78 +*04- &%3#04&;&9 %- :/E/ %-0#6#%&5 (% 3 >*:) 4#,7*, +*04-". S06& R-'4&"#0'&9 4#,7 +*04- %&J# >-+-%4&+*3-%%*>*, 4* K'*%*,&"#0'-5 0&04#,*4:-65#405 *4 0*04*5%&5 +-3%*3#0&5. A-J%*, *:%-'*, '-' 0**4%*0&405 >-+-%4&+*3-%%89 4#,7 +*040 #04#043#%%8,, 4.#. 4-'&,, '*4*+89 *$#07#"&3-#4 "7*6%/? 2-%54*04C" %-0#6#%&5. [ & %& 5 + #>+ #0& & F #, 78 +* 04- 0+ #:%#: /E #3* >* :* G* :(% >* :) • !2Z408>: AFR SAS EAS LAM OECD MR+&'ZG%-6 45*6 9&+(&"%-6 45*6 @-(*%+,-6 4'#.*,A.2-%*5-:*6 +(.-% I,&%&'*"#+,&2& +&(.E)%*"#+(=- * .-5=*(*6 x M6;78>: SNi Ke Ba In S-%5-%*6 D*2#.*6 P#%*6 U-%2/-)#Q ?%)*6 P& Ar Me Br UK P&.#6 4.2#%(*%1#,+*,U.-5*/*6 9#/*,&$.*(-%*6 Ch Is Th Fr US Ja P*(-J ?%)&%#5*6 S-*/-%) O.-%:*6 FR4 [3&%*6 !"#. 1-12 19*"-&#'<9D #%(.)(.CQ('>; 5(-3&' %&#5* 1G2 " #%(.)(.CQ('>; 5(-3&' %&#5* '*+&'>; ')C5%())"; ")'(#5"B"0 ' %*9+"/)>; #5%*)*; (' #%(.)(- 9* 1965-90 ,,.) ?+(&"%*,: Hayami Y. Development Economics From the poverty to wealth of nations. Oxford. 1997. F. 37. S06& >-+-%4&+*3-%%89 4#,7 +*04- 38E# #04#043#%%*>*, 4* 306#:043&# %#:*04-4'- 4+/:*38G +#0/+0*3 R-'4&"#0'&9 4#,7 +*04- $/:#4 %&J# >-+-%4&+*3-%%*>* & 7+*&23*:&4#6&, +-2*"-+*3-%%8# 3 03*&G *J&:-%&5G, 0%&254 *$a#, 387/0'- & &%3#04&;&&: 8756EI46 50560:842 12I;25544. S06& >-+-%4&+*3-%%89 4#,7 +*04E ,#%CE# #04#043#%%*>*, 4* R-'4&"#0'&9 4#,7 ,*J#4 7+#380&4C >-+-%4&+*3-%%89, 7*0'*6C'/ 0/=#043/?=&9 &2$84*' 4+/:*38G +#0/+0*3 0*2:-04 7+#:7*086'& :65 /3#6&"#%&5 &%3#04&;&9: 87?8265: JE/. [&EC 7+& +-3#%043# >-+-%4&+*3-%%*>*, #04#043#%%*>* & R-'4&"#0'*>* 4#,7*3 +*04- :*04&>-#405 &:#-6C%*# +-23&4&# %-;&*%-6C%*9 K'*%*,&'&. Q*0'*6C'/ 305'*# *4'6*%#%&# &%3#04&;&9 *4 /06*3&9 >-+-%4&+*3-%%*>* 4#,7- +*04- 383*:&4 M62I28H ;75[4;284: I;21I;484/7623H5B0@ 0&04#,/ &2 +-3%*3#0&5 & 7+&3*:&4 ' 12:623H80564 9 ;7/B7F 22 9B3717 9 ;056 5;21821E[290Z0 10F017 :&0$-6-%0/ 07+*0- & 7+#:6*J#%&5, 4* :&%-,&"#0'*# +-3%*3#0&# 3 ,*:#6& X-++*:- %#/04*9"&3*. !"#. 1-13. 2&'>Q()"( #%(.)(.CQ('&,& 3&5%(7+()"< 3& -(%( %*#Q"%()"< 3%(.3%")"-*5(+D#A&0 28 .(<5(+D)&#5" (-C+D5"3+"A*5"'))>0 R@@(A5). ?+(&"%*,: Leibenstein H. Op.cit, P.132 (*:#6& X-++*:- & P*,-+- :*7*6%56& :+/> :+/>-, *%& $86& *$a#:#%8 3 #:&%/? ,*:#6C, '*4*+-5 04-6- "4#*+#4&"#0'&, *+/J&#," '#9%0&-%043- 3 K'*%*,&'# +-23&4&5. D,#%%* K4- ,*:#6C 6#>6- 3 *0%*3/ 4#*+&& $*6CE*>* 4*6"'-. )#0,*4+5 %- 4*, "4* ,*:#6C $86- :*3*6C%* %#0*3#+E#%%-, *%- 7*'-283-6- %#0*,%#%%/? 0352C ,#J:/ 4#,7-,& +*04- &%3#04&;&9 & 4#,7-,& +*04- A)Q, "4* %#*:%*'+-4%* 7*:43#+J:-6*0C ,%*>*"&06#%%8,& K'*%*,#4+&"#0'&,& 7+*3#+'-,& (0,. +&0. 1-12) !"#%8# &0G*:&6& &2 4*>*, "4* :65 ,*:#+%&2-;&& *03*$*:&3E&G05 04+-% %#*$G*:&,* '+/7%*# 36&3-%&# '-7&4-6-, 3 +#2/6C4-4# '*4*+*>* %-"&%-#405 0-,*7*::#+J&3-?=&905 +*04. (*$&6&2*3-4C K4& +#0/+08 %- :*$+*3*6C%*9 *0%*3# 7+#:04-3656*0C %#+#-6C%8,, 7*K4*,/ -';#%4 :#6-605 %- 7+&%/:&4#6C%8# 0$#+#J#%&5, *$+-2*3-3E&#05 3 +#2/6C4-4# '+#:&4%*-:#%#J%*9 & %-6*>*3*9 7*6&4&'& >*0/:-+043-. )#KRR#'4&3%*04C R&0'-6C%*9 0&04#,8 ,*>6- $84C '*,7#%0&+*3-%- &,7*+4*, '-7&4-6-. A#6&"&%- &%a#';&& :*6J%- $84C :*04-4*"%*9 :65 %-"-6%#*$+-4&,*>* :3&J#%&5; 3 7+*4&3%*, 06/"-# 3*2%&'-#4 *7-0%*04C, "4* *%- ;#6&'*, /9:#4 %*$#07#"#%&# 4#'/=&G 7*4+#$%*04#9, 0&6C%* 3*2+*0E&G 306#:043&# :#,*>+-R&"#0'*>* +*04- & (&6&) :#,*%04+-;&*%%*>* KRR#'4-. "(&%&,-6C%*# '+&4&"#0'*# /0&6&#", 7* ,%#%&? X. [#9$#%04-9%-, :*6J%* $84C 4-'&,, "4*$8 /+*3#%C &%3#04&;&9 0*04-3&6 %# ,#%## 12–15% %-;&*%-6C%*>* :*G*:-. F-'*9 4*6"*', 0"&4-#4 *%, 0 *:%*9 04*+*%8, 7*380&4 4#,7 +*040+#:%#:/E#3*>* :*G*:- (4.#. 38 3#:#4 E 7*4+#$6#%&# &2 0*04*5%&5 04->%-;&& – 0,. +&0. 1-13), - 0 :+/>*9 – +-0E&+&4 "&06* G*259043/?=&G 0/$a#'4*3 – 7+#:7+&%&,-4#6#9, '*4*+8# *$#07#"-4 :-6C%#9E&9 +*04 0+#:%#:/E#3*>* :*G*:- (+&0. 1-14). I*04 0+#:%#:/E#3*>* :*G*:7*38E-#4 7*'/7-4#6C%/? 07*0*$%*04C %-0#6#%&5 & /3#6&"&3-#4 07+*0. I*04 07+*0- 04-%*3&405 04&,/6*, +-0E&+#%&5 7+#:7+&%&,-4#6C0'*9 :#54#6C%*04&, "4* 7*23*65#4 +-0E&+&4C & />6/$&4C 7#+3*%-"-6C%89 ,/6C4&76&'-;&*%%89 KRR#'4 (4.#. 7#+#94& ' '+&3*9 G1 ' G2 & *4 %#` - ' G3 & 4.:.) P65 4#*+#4&'*3 "$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-", '-' & :65 %#*'#9%0&-%043- 3 !"#.1-14. !&#5 /"#+* ;&9<0#5'C:8"; #C7T(A5&', ;#6*,, G-+-'4#+%*, 4-'&, *$+-2*,, '+"<:8"; )* C'(+"/()"( #%(.)(.CQ('&,& .&;&.* 3#0C,- '+&4&"#0'*# *4%*E#%&# ' +#>/6&+/?=#9 07*0*$%*04& +8%'-. (A*%5* 3%(.3&/5"5(+D)>; %(*AB"0) Q*K4*,/ :65 K4&G 4#*+&9 $86 D04*"%&': Leibenstein H. Op.cit, P.134 G-+-'4#+#% 7+#J:# 30#>* ,-'+*7*:G*:. (-'+*7*:G*: &0G*:&4 &2 -%-6&2- K'*%*,&'& 3 ;#6*,, >6-3%8, 5365#405 *7+#:#6#%&# *74&,-6C%8G 4#,7*3 +*04- %-;&*%-6C%*9 K'*%*,&'&. L K4*9 ;#6C? *0/=#04365#405 +-07+#:#6#%&# &%3#04&;&9 7* *4+-065,, 7+& K4*, 3*2,*J%- *+>-%&2-;&5 '*%'/+0&%:&3&:/-6C%8G 7+*#'4*3, 0 4#,, "4*$8 :*$&4C05 >6-3%*>* +#2/6C4-4- –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` *0/=#0436#%&&, - >*0/:-+043#%%*-$?+*'+-4&"#0'-5 $/+J/-2&5. )-'*%#;, %# 06#:/#4 0$+-083-4C 0* 0"#4*3 & ;#6& '+/7%8G '*+7*+-;&9 +-23&48G 04+-%, &=/=&G %-&$*6## 38>*:%8# 0R#+8 7+&6*J#%&5 03*#>* '-7&4-6-. A0` K4* 7+#:*7+#:#6&6* %# 4*6C'* 380*'&9 4#*+#4&"#0'&9 &%4#+#0 ' %*3*9 '*%;#7;&&, %* & 7*784'& #`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– 2-:-%&# 4#,7*3 +*04- I-07+#:#6#%&# '-7&4-6C%8G 36*J#%&9 7* *4+-065, M%-6&2 &%:&3&:/-6C%8G 7+*#'4*3 L*7*04-36#%&# +#2/6C4-4*3 .*++#';&5 +-07+#:#6#%&5 !"#.1-15. 2%")B"3"*+D)*< #;(-* -*A%&3&.;&.* ?+(&"%*,: 4/#Q*%- ?.9. >.&$/#'0 '&)#/*.&=-%*6 I,&%&'*,* .-5=*=-8N*H+6 +(.-% (, ,.*(*,# $E.GE-5%&J (#&.** * '#(&)&/&2**). @., 1970. F. 132 I-00,*4+&, *0%*3%8# +-2%*3&:%*04& 4#*+&& "$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-". I->%-+ )/+'0# 3 ;#65G ,*:#+%&2-;&& 7+#:6->-#4 *0/=#043654C "5J737854;09788>@ 87J0; 4892564=4@"22. L-,0$-6-%0&+*3-%%*04C 4+-'4/#405 &, 3 '-4#>*+&5G +8%*"%*>* G*259043- - '-' 0**43#4043&# 07+*0- & 7+#:6*J#%&5. )- %-"-6C%*, K4-7# K4*>* 0**43#4043&5 %#4. <:%-'* 0&%G+*%%*# 7+&6*J#%&# '-7&4-6- ' E&+*'*,/ '+/>/ *4+-06#9 ,-4#+&-6C%*>* 7+*&23*:043- 7*23*6&4 %# 4*6C'* :*$&4C05 0-,*7*::#+J&3-?=#>*05 +*04-, %* & 7+#*:*6#4C /2*04C +8%'-, 4&7&"%/? :65 $*6CE&%043+-23&3-?=&G05 04+-%. Q+& K4*, 7+#:7*6->-#405, "4* >*0/:-+043* 2-9,#405, 7+#J:# 30#>*, 0*2:-%&#, +8%*"%*9 &%R+-04+/'4/+8, "#, 7*:>*4*3&4 7+#:7*086'& :65 +-23#+483-%&5 "-04%*>* 7+#:7+&%&,-4#6C043-. Q+&%/:&4#6C%8# 0$#+#J#%&5 7*04#7#%%* 0,#%5405 :*$+*3*6C%8,&, -34*%*,%8# &%3#04&;&& – &%:/;&+*3-%%8,&. A0# K4* 0*2:-04 /06*3&5 :65 7*6%*;#%%*>* :#9043&5 ,#G-%&2,- +8%'-. 14- &:#5 7*6/"&6- +-23&4&# 3 +5:# +-$*4. Q+*&66?04+&+/#, K4* %- ,*:#6& (29487 "_;G4, +81;2: U3:@G2;7 4 !0J2;67 &4[84(1989), *7/$6&'*3-%%*9 3 04-4C# «D%:/04+&-6&2-;&5 & «$*6CE*9 4*6"*'»»23. Q*: &%:/04+&-6&2-;&#9 -34*+8 7*%&,-?4 7#+#G*: *4 «76*G*>*» K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +-3%*3#0&5, *0%*3*9 '*4*+*>* 5365#405 ->+-+%89 0#'4*+ K'*%*,&'&, ' «G*+*E#,/» +-3%*3#0&?, *0%*3-%%*,/ %- >*07*:043# 7+*:/';&& *$+-$-483-?=#>* 0#'4*+-. 22 Nurkse R. Op. cit.; Nurkse R. Equilibrium and Growth in the Worid Economy. Cambridge, 1961. !"#Kevin M. Murphy, Andrei Shleifer, Robert W. Vishny «Industrialization and the Big Push» Journal of Political Economy 1989 30 D%:/04+&-6&2-;&5 *:%*>* 0#'4*+- K'*%*,&'&, 7&E/4 -34*+8, *$8"%* $83-#4 %# 38>*:%-, 4-' '-' NPV<0. <40?:- 384#'-#4 &:#5 *:%*3+#,#%%*9 &%:/04+&-6&2-;&& 0+-2/ 3 %#0'*6C'&G 0#'4*+-G K'*%*,&'&. A K4*, 06/"-# 7+*&2*9:`4 0*2:-%&# :*G*:-, '*4*+89 7*06/J&4 &04*"%&'*, 07+*0- %4*3-+8 3 :+/>&G 0#'4*+-G, "4* 7*36#"`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«$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-»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– %-:#6#%%*04C 4+/:*, Z?:J#4%*# *>+-%&"#%&#: y = c + L, >:# c – 0*3*'/7%89 :*G*: .-J:*# $6->* 7+*&23*:&405 3 *:%*, 0#'4*+# A '-J:*, 0#'4*+# – 2 4&7- R&+,: -) “04-+-5” 4#G%*6*>&5 0 7*04*5%%*9 *4:-"#9 *4 ,-0E4-$- (constant returns of scale- CRS), 7+& '*4*+*9 /3#6&"#%&# %- 1 #:&%&;/ 4+/:7+&3*:&4 ' +*04/ 387/0'- 4*J# %- 1 #:&%&;/ (1L=1#:&%%&;- $6->-); $) “%*3-5” 4#G%*6*>&5 0 3*2+-04-?=#9 *4:-"#9 *4 ,-0E4-$- (increasing returns of scale – IRS), 7+& '*4*+*9 /3#6&"#%&# 2-4+-% %- #:&%&;/ 7+&3*:&4 ' $*6CE#,/, "#, #:&%&;-, 3*2+-04-%&? $6-> (1L=d>1#:.$6->-) ! “)*3/?” 4#G%*6*>&? *0/=#04365?4 R&+,8-,*%*7*6&048; 31 ! F- R&'0&+*3-%%8# 2-4+-48. Q+&$86C ,*%*7*6&04- +-3%- +-2%&;# ,#J:/ :*G*:*, & &2:#+J'-,&: S06& n –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m(n) – :*65 /+$-%&2&+*3-%%*>* %-0#6#%&5. Q#+3*# +-3%*3#0&# – 3 /06*3&5G *40/4043&5 &%:/04+&-6&2-;&& – /04*9"&3*, #06& R&+,%-G*:&4 %#38>*:%8, &%3#04&+*3-4C: 32 A4*+*# +-3%*3#0&# – 7+& &%:/04+&-6&2-;&& – /04*9"&3*, #06& 30# R&+,8 *0/=#04365?4 &%:/04+&-6&2-;&?, %& *:%- %# *4'6*%5#405: I-3%*3#0&# 1 & 2 ,*>/4 0/=#043*3-4C *:%*3+#,#%%*. A K4*, 06/"-# 3*2,*J#% “$*6CE*9 4*6"*'” 7+& '**+:&%-;&& &%3#04&;&9. <:%-'* ,*:#6C 0 7*38E#%%*9 2-+-$*4%*9 76-4*9 3 7+*,8E6#%%*04& ,*J#4 $84C +-00,*4+#%- %# 4*6C'* '-' 04-4&"#0'-5, %* & '-' :&%-,&"#0'-5 (:3/G7#+&*:%-5) ,*:#6C &%3#04&;&9. Q+#:7*086'-,& :&%-,&"#0'*9 ,*:#6& 5365?405: ! 1'*%*,&'- +-00,-4+&3-#405 3 :*6>*0+*"%*, 7#+&*:# (4* #04C +-00,-4+&3-#405 2 7#+&*:-); ! L/=#043/#4 *:&% 7*4+#$&4#6C; ! ]/%';&5 7*6#2%*04& &,##4 3&:: ! A '-J:*, 0#'4*+# 0/=#043/#4 7*4#%;&-6C%89 ,*%*7*6&04, '*4*+89 ,*J#4 &%3#04&+*3-4C 3 1-*, 7#+&*:# 3 “%*3/?” 4#G%*6*>&? (,#J3+#,#%%*9 38$*+ &%3#04&;&9); ! I#E#%&# ,*%*7*6&04- *0%*383-#405 %-: - 2%-"#%&& +-3%*3#0%*9 04*&,*04& 7+*;#%4-; - 0*3*'/7%*, :*G*:# 3* 2-*, 7#+&*:#; ! Q+&$86C ,*%*7*6&04- +-3%-: Q#+3*# +-3%*3#0&# – 3 /06*3&5G *40/4043&5 &%:/04+&-6&2-;&& – /04*9"&3*, #06& R&+,-,*%*7*6&04 %# *0/=#04365#4 &%3#04&;&&, 4.#. %# %-%&,-#4 F +-$*4%&'*3 3 1-*, 7#+&*:#: F*>:-: y1=y2=L A4*+*# +-3%*3#0&# – 7+& &%:/04+&-6&2-;&& – /04*9"&3*, #06& 30# R&+,8-,*%*7*6&048 *0/=#04365?4 &%3#04&;&& 3 1-*, 7#+&*:#. F*>:-: y1=L – F, - Q*4+#$&4#6& $/:/4 7*4+#$654C $*6CE# 3* 2-*, 7#+&*:# 7* 0+-3%#%&? 0 1-8,, #06& +-3%*3#0%-5 04*&,*04C 7+*;#%4- +-3%-: 2-*# +-3%*3#0&# 0/=#043/#4, #06& :#%#J%89 7*4*' R&+,8 3* 2-*, 7#+&*:# 7*6*J&4#6C%89: 33 .*>:- +-3%*3#0&5 1 & 2 0/=#043/?4 *:%*3+#,#%%*, 3*2,*J#% “$*6CE*9 4*6"*'”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“$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-”, 4-' '-' $6->*:-+5 #` 0*2:-%&? +-0E&+5#405 +8%*' 0$84-. 14*, 7+#J:# 30#>*, '-0-#405 4+-%07*+4-, $6->*:-+5 '*4*+*,/ 7+*&23*:&4#6& ,*>/4 $*6## :#E#38, 07*0*$*, :*04-3654C $6->- ' 7*4+#$&4#65,. Q+& K4*, 0%&J-?405 &2:#+J'& 3* 30#G *4+-065G %-+*:%*>* G*259043-. Q+#:7*086'-,& 4+#4C#9 ,*:#6& 5365?405: ! ]/%';&5 7*6#2%*04& -%-6*>&"%- :3/G7#+&*:%*9 ,*:#6& 0 &%3#04&;&5,&, %*: & +-3%*3#0%-5 04*&,*04C 7+*;#%4- +-3%- %/6?; ! L/=#043/?4 :3- 4&7- IRS 4#G%*6*>&9: n R&+, – F1, (1-n) – F2>F1; ! R (#:&%&;8 4+/:-) – &2:#+J'& 04+*&4#6C043- J#6#2%*9 :*+*>&; ! ]&+,8 *$*&G 4&7*3 :*6J%8 &%3#04&+*3-4C 3 04+*&4#6C043* J#6#2%*9 :*+*>&: ! )#6C25 7+*3#04& ;#%*3/? :&0'+&,&%-;&? 7+& /04-%*36#%&& ;#%8 04+*&4#6C043J#6#2%*9 :*+*>&, 4-' '-' 4&78 R&+, 3 1-*, 7#+&*:# %# %-$6?:-#,8. ! )#*$G*:&,*# & :*04-4*"%*# /06*3&# 0/=#043*3-%&5 +-3%*3#0&5 0 &%:/04+&-6&2-;&#9 & 04+*&4#6C043*, J#6#2%*9 :*+*>&: A K4*, 06/"-#: - 7+&$86C R&+, 0 &2:#+J'-,& F1 +-3%- (F2-F1) - R&+,8 0 &2:#+J'-,& F2 :*04&>-?4 BEP, #06& :*G*: 2-*>* 7#+&*:- +-3#% A*2,*J%- 0&4/-;&5, '*>:- K'*%*,&"#0'& 38>*:%* 04+*&4C J#6#2%/? :*+*>/, *:%-'* R-'4&"#0'& &%3#04&;&& %# $/:/4 *0/=#0436#%8, 4-' '-': - /06*3&# 04+*&4#6C043- J#6#2%*9 :*+*>&, ,#%## J#04'*#, "#, /06*3&# &%:/04+&-6&2-;&& *4+-06#9: 34 14* *2%-"-#4, "4* 7*4+#$&4#6#9 /06/> J#6#2%*9 :*+*>& 7+& 2-:-%%*9 ;#%# %#:*04-4*"%*. A*2%&'-#4 3*7+*0: $/:/4 6& &%3#04&;&& 3 04+*&4#6C043* J#6#2%*9 :*+*>& *0/=#043654C05 30#>:-, '*>:- &23#04%*, "4* K4* 7+&3#:#4 ' +-3%*3#0&? 0 &%:/04+&-6&2-;&#9? A +8%*"%*9 K'*%*,&'# *4%?:C %#4. <:%-'* K4/ R/%';&? ,*J#4 3254C %- 0#$5 >*0/:-+043*. L/=#043/#4 %#0'*6C'* +-3%*3#0&9: )#4 >-+-%4&&, "4* 7*4#%;&-6C%8# 7*4+#$&4#6& /06/> *0/=#04354 &%3#04&;&&. L:#6-%%8G 36*J#%&9 53%* %#:*04-4*"%*, "4*$8 7+&94& ' /04*9"&3*,/ +-3%*3#0&? 0 &%:/04+&-6&2-;&#9 30#G *4+-06#9. Q*K4*,/ KRR#'4 “$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-” 3*2,*J#% 6&EC 7*0+#:043*, +-0E&+#%&5 +8%'- 3* 34*+*, 7#+&*:# & 0%&J#%&5 &2:#+J#' 3* 30#G *4+-065G. Q+& K4*, +*6C >*0/:-+043- 53%* 3*2+-04-#4. <%* :*6J%* 2-%54C05 0/$0&:&+*3-%&5#, 04+*&4#6C043- J#6#2%*9 :*+*>&, "4*$8 *0/=#043&4C “$*6CE*9 4*6"*'”, & 3*26*J&4C %- 0#$5 '**+:&%-;&? "-04%8G &%3#04&;&9 7*6C2*3-4#6#9 J#6#2%*9 :*+*>&, "4*$8 :*04&"C +-3%*3#0&5 0 &%:/04+&-6&2-;&#9. F-' '-' K'*%*,&"#0'-5 :#54#6C%*04C 2-3&0&4 *4 &O".*)"0, 4* R/%';&#9 >*0/:-+043- 04-%*3&405 & A&&%.")*B"< &O".*)"0. (*:#6C (`+R&-B659R#+--A&E%& –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–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`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` %-"&%-#405 0%-"-6-. 14* %# 2%-"&4, "4* 0$-6-%0&+*3-%%8# & %#0$-6-%0&+*3-%%8# 7/4& +-23&4&5 %# 24 Hirshman A.O. The Strategy of Economic Development. 2 ed. New Haven, 1961. I. 50-54. 35 &,#?4 *$=&G 4*"#', *:%-'* *%& 5365?405 0'*+#9 &0'6?"#%&#,, "#, 7+-3&6*, (0,. 4*"'& - & b %+&0. 1-18). !"#. 1-17. G(#7*+*)#"%&'*))&#5D RA&)&-"A" A*A #5"-C+ A ")'(#5"B"<- F&+(-=/#%& no: Hirshman A.O. The Strategy of Economic Development. 2 ed. New Haven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illis M., Perkins D.H., Roemer M., Snodgrass D.R, Economics 38:3&%/6 %*3/? '*%;#7;&? of Development. 4th Ed. N.Y. 1996. F. 64. ,*:#+%&2-;&&, 3 '*4*+*9 "0$-6-%0&+*3-%%89 +*04 *0/=#04365#405 7*0+#:043*, %#0$-6-%0&+*3-%%8G &%3#04&;&9"26. "Z*6CE*9 4*6"*'" 3 7+*,8E6#%%*04&, 07+-3#:6&3* 7*6->-#4 *%, %#3*2,*J#% $#2 "$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-" 3 ->+-+%*9 0R#+#. Q*K4*,/ @. H&%>#+ /:#65#4 *0*$*# 3%&,-%&# /06*3&5, ,*:#+%&2-;&& – 25 18.)-/< 7. L*3+#,#%%8# 7+*$6#,8 «4+#4C#>* ,&+-». (., 1972. L. 638. L,. 4-'J#: Streeten P. Balanced versus Unbalanced Grouth // Readings in Economic Development/Ed. by W. LJohnson, D.R. Kamerschen. Cincinaii etc.. 1972. P. 230-240. 26 Singer H.W. International Development: Growth and Change. N.Y. etc.. 1964. Ch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two gaps model) $86- +-2+-$*4-%- 3 6070-# >>. >+/77*9 -,#+&'-%0'&G &006#:*3-4#6#9 –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a#, '-7&4-6C%8G +#0/+0*3, '*4*+8# +-23&3-?=-505 04+-%- 07*0*$%- 7+*&23*:&4#6C%* &07*6C2*3-4C 3 :-%%89 ,*,#%4. Q*K4*,/ 3 04-4&'# ,*:#6C ,*J%* 2-7&0-4C 06#:/?=&, *$+-2*,: Y Q / Y C+S+M / Q C+I+X / I–S M-X / P#R&;&4 F*+>*389 0$#+#J#%&9 :#R&;&4 >:# Y - :*G*:, Q - 387/0', F – 0*3*'/7%*# 7*4+#$6#%&#, S – 3-6*38# 3%/4+#%%&# 0$#+#J#%&5, I - 3-6*38# 3%/4+#%%&# &%3#04&;&&, X- K'07*+4, M- &,7*+4. I-2%&;- ,#J:/ 3-6*38,& 3%/4+#%%&,& &%3#04&;&5,& & 3-6*38,& 3%/4+#%%&,& 0$#+#J#%&5,& ,*J#4 $84C '*,7#%0&+*3-%- &%*04+-%%*9 7*,*=C?. I–S=F 0I=S+F I-2%&;- ,#J:/ K'07*+4*, & &,7*+4*, 4-'J# ,*J#4 $84C '*,7#%0&+*3-%- &%*04+-%%*9 7*,*=C?: M - X = F 0 M = X + F <$a#, &%*04+-%%*9 7*,*=& :65 *$#07#"#%&5 7+#:/0,*4+#%%*>* 7*6&4&'*9 ,*:#+%&2-;&& 2-:-%%*>* ;#6#3*>* 4#,7- +*04- *7+#:#65#405 %-&$*6CE&, &2 K4&G :3/G :#R&;&4*3. Q*,*=C *0/=#04365#405 %# 4*6C'* :65 4*>*, "4*$8 /,#%CE&4C 3%/4+#%%&9 & 3%#E%&9 :#R&;&48, %* & :65 4*>*, "4*$8 0 4#"#%&#, 3+#,#%& 6&$* 3**$=# *4'-2-4C05 *4 &%*04+-%%*9 7*,*=&, 6&$* 2%-"&4#6C%* 0%&2&4C ## 3#6&"&%/. (*:#6C 7+#:7*6->-#4 :3- 7#+&*:-. A4*+*9 (:*6>*0+*"%89) 3'6?"-#4 3 0#$5 :3# -6C4#+%-4&3%8# 04-:&& (4-$6. 1-3). Q+*:#6-%%89 X. T#%#+& & M. L4+-/4*, -%-6&2 50 +-23&3-?=&G05 04+-% 7*'-2-6, "4* 0+#:%&# 4#,78 7+&+*04- 0$#+#J#%&9 0*04-3&6& 3 1957-1962>>. 6-8%, - ,-'0&,-6C%8# – 12-15%. 14& 7*06#:%&# & $86& 7+&%548 * '-"#043# -$0*+$;&*%%*9 07*0*$%*04& 04+-% "4+#4C#>* ,&+-". 27 L,.: Chenery D., Bruno 1. Development Alcernatoves in an Open Economy: The Case of Israel// Economic Journal. 1962. Vol. 72, March; Chenery D.. Straut A. Foreign Assistance and Economic Oevelopment//American Economic Review. 1966. Vol. 56. September, Chenery D., Eckstein P. Development Alternatives for Latin America//Journal of Political Economy. 1970. Vol. 78, June/ August; K#%#.* \, P-.(#. D. A%/4+#%%&# & 3%#E%&# -07#'48 76-%*3 & 7+*;#00- K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +-23&4&5//.*%R#+#%;&5 7* :*6>*0+*"%*,/ 76-%&+*3-%&? & 7+*>%*2&+*3-%&?. (., 1972 & :+. 37 -7J34=7 1-3 "0123H AB080/4?25B0Z0 ;0567 5 19E/: 12G4=467/4 T2;401> M67144 M;21825;0?8>@ (5 -10 326) I. II. L03Z05;0?8>@ (59>[2 10 326) 1. "D03H[0@ 603?0B" 2. & 53E?72 I;20J371784: 12G4=467 5J2;2\284@ 3. & 53E?72 I;20J371784: 60;Z090Z0 12G4=467 (-'0&,-6C%8# 4#,78 7+&+*04- 0$#+#J#%&9 *$#07#"&3-6& 7+& K4*, #J#>*:%89 4#,7 7+&+*04- A)Q %- /+*3%# 5-7%. Q*K4*,/ 3 :&%-,&'# *$a#, &%*04+-%%*9 7*,*=& +-00"&483-605 7* R*+,/6#: Ft=F0+(1$k-'')(Yt-Y0) L2G4=46 ex ante >:# Ft – 4+#$/#,89 *$a#, 7*,*=& 3 7#+&*: 3+#,#%& t; 1 – ,-'0&,-6C%* 3*2,*J%89 4#,7 +*04- &%3#04&;&9; k- 7+&+*04%89 '-7&4-6C%89 '*KRR&;&#%4 (ICOR); '' – 7+#:#6C%-5 %*+,- 0$#+#J#%&9, &6& 7+#:#6C%-5 0'6*%%*04C ' 0$#+#J#%&5, ('' = # S / #Y, >:# S - 7*4#%;&-6C%8# 3%/4+#%%&# 0$#+#J#%&5). Q+#:7*6->-#405, "4* 7#+3-5 S' L2G4=46 04-:&5 ,*:#+%&2-;&& 2-'*%"&405 4*>:-, 5J2;2\284@ '*>:- 4#,7 +*04- &%3#04&;&9 0+-3%5#405 0 4#,7*, +*04- A)Q. P*7/04&,, "4* K4* 7+*&2*9:#4 3 ,*,#%4 3+#,#%& t=m. T' -0;Z09>@ F*>:- Im = k r Ym >:# r - ;#6#3*9 4#,7 12G4=46 +*04- A)Q. A 2-3&0&,*04& *4 4*>*, '-'*9 R1 f &,#%%* :#R&;&4 7+#*$6-:-#4, %-04/7-#4 34*+-5 &6& 4+#4C5 04-:&5 ,*:#+%&2-;&&. .*,7#%0&+*3-4C %#G3-4'/ 3%/4+#%%&G 0$#+#J#%&9 ,*J#4 &,7*+4 T &%*04+-%%8G 4*3-+*3 & /06/>, *:%-'* ;#6C? :-%%*9 04-:&& ,*:#+%&2-;&& 5365#405 *$#07#"#%&# 4-'&G /06*3&9, S G 7+& '*4*+8G K4*4 7+&4*' :*6J#% 7*r 04#7#%%* /,#%CE-4C05. 14* :*04&>-#405 (K23290@ ;056 &#T) 7+& '' > k r , 4*>:-: S = I, - M 2 <, >:# M - 4+#$/#,89 *$a#, &,7*+4- 4*3-+*3 !"#.1-19. $&.(+D # .'C-< .(@"B"5*-": & /06/>. ,%*@"/(#A*< ")5(%3%(5*B"<. P65 6&'3&:-;&& ?+(&"%*,: Ingham B. Economics and Development. L. 1995. P.178 3%#E%#4*+>*3*>* :#R&;&4- %#*$G*:&,* 7#+#+-07+#:#6&4C 3%/4+#%%&# &%3#04&;&& 4-'&, *$+-2*,, "4*$8 K4*4 :#R&;&4 $86 6&'3&:&+*3-%. P*7/04&,, "4* 4+#4C5 04-:&5 ,*:#+%&2-;&& %-"%#405 3 ,*,#%4 3+#,#%& t = n. F*>:-: Ft=Mt-Xt=Mn+3'(Yt-Yn)- Xn(I+x)t-n >:# 3' - 7+#:#6C%-5 0'6*%%*04C ' &,7*+4/ (3' = # M /#Y), x - 4#,7 +*04- K'07*+4-, +-00"&4-%%89 K'2*>#%%* (G-+-'4#+&2/#4 ,#+8 >*0/:-+043- 7* 04&,/6&+*3-%&? K'07*+4-). P#R&;&4 4*+>*3*>* $-6-%0- $/:#4 6&'3&:&+*3-%, #06& x >> r , - 3' << 3#% >:# 3#% – 0+#:%55 0'6*%%*04C ' &,7*+4/. P*04-4*"%89 *$a#, 0$#+#J#%&9 %-G*:&405 '-': St=It-Ft= k rYt-Ft 38 I*04 *$a#,- 7*4#%;&-6C%8G 0$#+#J#%&9 %# 4*6C'* *$#07#"&4 3%/4+#%%&# 7*4+#$%*04& 3 '-7&4-6*36*J#%&5G, %* & 7*23*6&4 0 4#"#%&#, 3+#,#%& 7*6%*04C? *4'-2-4C05 *4 &%*04+-%%*9 7*,*=& (#06& S > I). P&-6#'4&'- ,*:#6& 4-'*3-, "4* +#E-5 7+*$6#,/ %#G3-4'& 0$#+#J#%&9 ,8 *:%*3+#,#%%* &2$-365#,05 *4 4*+>*3*>* :#R&;&4- & %-*$*+*4, +#E-5 7+*$6#,/ %#G3-4'& 4*+>*3*>* :#R&;&4- ,8 *:%*3+#,#%%* +#E-#, 7+*$6#,/ :#R&;&4- 0$#+#J#%&9. A0`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s1 4 Y . s 2 4 F . s 3 4 X , >:# s1 - 7+#:#6C%-5 0'6*%%*04C ' 0$#+#J#%&5,, s2, s3 - '*KRR&;&#%48, *4+-J-?=&# 36&5%&# 7+&+*04- &%*04+-%%8G +#0/+0*3 (F) & K'07*+4(X) %- +-2,#+ 3%/4+#%%&G 0$#+#J#%&9 (S), F-'J# $86- /4*"%#%- R*+,/6- :65 +-0"#4- &%3#04&;&9 0 /"#4*, 38$84&5 04-+*>* *$*+/:*3-%&5 & %-'6-:%8G +-0G*:*3, '*4*+8# :*3*6C%* 380*'& 3 +-23&3-?=&G05 04+-%-G: I = b 1 $ Y + b 2 $ # Y , >:# b1 - :*65 A)Q, &:/=-5 %- 2-,#%/ 04-+*>* *$*+/:*3-%&5 & %-'6-:%8# +-0G*:8, b2 - 7+#:#6C%*# 0**4%*E#%&# ,#J:/ '-7&4-6*, & *$a#,*, 7+*&23*:043- (A)Q)28. Q* 7+&%;&7/ 4#*+#4&"#0'*9 ,*:#6& 0 :3/,5 :#R&;&4-,& 3 70-# >>. $86* 0*04-36#%* *'*6* 30 7+-'4&"#0'&G ,*:#6#9 ,*:#+%&2-;&& :65 O).FMP & 10-:65 1L.MF<. (*:#6C 0 :3/,5 :#R&;&4-,& #04C :-6C%#9E-5 '*%'+#4&2-;&5 &:#& "$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-". S# ;#6C – 7+*06#:&4C 32-&,*0352C +-23&4&5 3%/4+#%%#>* %-'*76#%&5 & 3%#E%&G &04*"%&'*3 R&%-%0&+*3-%&5. !7<94642 6;7B6E265: I;4 67B0/ I01F012 B7B 9>62582842 982[84F 4560?84B09 G487854;09784: - 98E6;2884/4, B7B <7/287 4/I0;68>F 6097;09 – 062?2569288>/4, B7B 50<17842 I;21I05>30B 13: I;20103284: 982[82@ G48785090@ <79454/0564. . 0*J-6#%&?, %- 7+-'4&'# 30` 7*6/"&6*0C 0 4*"%*04C? :* %-*$*+*4, &,#%%* 3 K4* 3+#,5 04+#,&4#6C%* +-04#4 :*6> +-23&3-?=&G05 04+-% 04+-%-, :*%*+-, L*2:-3-4C 76-%8 *'-2-6*0C >*+-2:* 7+*=#, "#, :*$&3-4C05 &G +#-6C%*>* 387*6%#%&5, 7*6/"-4C 3%#E%&# 2-9,8 – >*+-2:* 7+*=# "#, *4:-3-4C. D K4* 06#:/#4 +-00,-4+&3-4C '-' >6-3%89 %#:*04-4*' :-%%*9 '*%;#7;&& ,*:#+%&2-;&&. <%- 53%* %#:**;#%&3-6- 3%/4+#%%&# +#0/+08 +-23&3-?=&G05 04+-%, "4* *$a#'4&3%* 3#6* ' 2-38E#%&? 7*4+#$%*04& 3 &%*04+-%%*9 7*,*=& & & '*%#"%*, 0"#4#– ' 04+#,&4#6C%*,/ +*04/ 3%#E%#>* :*6>-(0,. 4-$6. 1-3.). -7J34=7 1-3. !056 982[82Z0 103Z7 ;7<9497]^4F5: 56;78 4 56;78 5 G0;/4;E]^4/5: ;>8B0/, 1976-2006 ZZ. A%2#$ G05.#.0>M#-)1 )*/0%@ # )*/0%@ ) 3(/:#/?>M#:)1 /@%+(: G-8#(%0"I%@- 8/?JJ@ 23/#+0 A-%*/0"I%01 # '()*(4%01 B./(J0 ,(N/?$-)*.( C-50.#)#:@7 D()?N0/)*. G05.#.0>M#-)1 )*/0%@ 25## !"#$%#& '()*(+ O0J0N%(- J("?P0/#?+(&"%*,: World Economic Outlook, 1977-2006. 28 1976 1986 1996 2006 526 1033,8 1783,3 3150,6 72 42,5 14,5 124,5 89,5 183 167,5 93,1 31,4 281,8 203,6 380,9 286,8 119,9 250,5 563,7 274,3 658,4 244,1 664,4 363,7 892,9 243,4 742 K#%#.* \„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a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„4+#4C#>* ,&+-". (.: Q+*>+#00. 1972. Q+&6*J#%&# 1. L.541-628. I-23&4&# -2&-40'&G *$=#043 XVII- %-"-6- XX 3.: 0*3+#,#%%8# 2-7-:%8# 4#*+&&. A87.2. F#*+&& 06-$*+-23&4*04&. Q*&0' 3%#E%&G R-'4*+*3 +-23&4&5. (.: D)D<), 1991. 29 [#3*+-:&'-6C%8#, %#*'6-00&"#0'&#, &%04&4/;&*%-6C%8# & %#*&%04&4/;&*%-6C%8# '*%;#7;&& 04-%*36#%&5 +8%*"%*9 K'*%*,&'& $/:/4 7+#:04-36#%8 3 06#:/?=&G 04-4C5G 40 Hess P., Ross 4. Economic Development: Theories, Evidence and Policies. Philadelphia etc., 1997. Ch.l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ay D. Development Economics. Princeton University Press. 1998. Ch. 3,4. P. 97-129 P<Q<[)DFS[\)MN [DFSIMF!IM: $(+D<)B(' 1.I. A*04*' & H-7-: 3* 34*+*, 4805"#6#4&&: K'*%*,&'-, &04*+&5 & 0*3+#,#%%*04C. (.: D2:-3* (@!, 1996. @6. 1 (§2). L.35-54. Development Economics: Theory, Practice and Prospects. Kluwer Academic Publishers. BostonDordrecht-London, 1989. Hess P., Ross 4. Economic Development Ch.3.P.59-70. Murphy K, A.Shleifer and R.Vishny: "Industrialisation and the Big Push" Journal of Political Economy, 1989 &0I;05> 13: 0J5E\1284: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1'*%*,&'- +-23&4&5: *0*$#%%*04& 7+#:,#4- & ,#4*:-. Q+#:7*086'& 3*2%&'%*3#%&5 2-'*%*,#+%*04& +-23&4&5 4#*+&& +-23&3-?=&G05 04+-%. L6-$*+-23&4*04C '-' +#2/6C4-4 3*2:#9043&5 *>+-%&"&3-?=&G R-'4*+*3 (:#,*>+-R&"#0'*>*, >#*>+-R&"#0'*>*, 4#G%*6*>&"#0'*>*). L6-$*+-23&4*04C '-' R*+,- '+/>*3*>* :3&J#%&5. F#*+&5 "7*+*"%*>* '+/>- %&=#48", #` +-26&"%8# 3-+&-%48. F#*+&5 '3-2&04-$&6C%*>* +-3%*3#0&5 X. [#9$#%04#9%-. !. I*04*/ *$ *0%*3%8G 04-:&5G +*04-. P*04*&%043- & %#:*04-4'& '*%;#7;&&. A*2,*J%*04& K,7&+&"#0'*9 7+*3#+'&. (*:#6C X-++*:--P*,-+-: 7+#:7*086'&, 0*:#+J-%&# & *0*$#%%*04& #` &07*6C2*3-%&5 3 4#*+&5G "$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-". F#*+&5 "$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-" & #` *0%*3%8# 3-+&-%48. L$-6-%0&+*3-%%89 %-$*+ &%3#04&;&9 I. )/+'0#. )#0$-6-%0&+*3-%%89 +*04 M. X&+E,-%-. L$-6-%0&+*3-%%89 +*04 7*0+#:043*, %#0$-6-%0&+*3-%%8G &%3#04&;&9 X. H&%>#+-. S:&%043* & +-26&"&# '*%;#7;&9. A "`,, %- A-E 32>65:, :*04*&%043- & %#:*04-4'& ,*:#6& .. (`+R&, M B659R#+- & I. A&E%& (1989 >*:)? .-'*38 7/4& +-23&4&5 ,*:#6&? T4* $8 A8 7+#:6*J&6&, "4*$8 #` 7+&$6&2&4C ' +#-6C%*04&? 41 7. (*:#6C K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +*04- 0 :3/,5 :#R&;&4-,&. Q+#:7*086'&, 04-4&'- & :&%-,&',*:#6&. -256> &2;8> 34 5321E]^42 E692;\1284:? (K287 I;7943H80Z0 069267 2 J7337.) 1. A *0%*3# 4#*+&& «7*+*"%8G '+/>*3 %&=#48» 6#J&4 0**4%*E#%&# ,#J:/ /3#6&"#%&#, /+*J-9%*04& & +*04*, %-0#6#%&5. MD#( 2. F#*+&5 «7*+*"%8G '+/>*3 %&=#48», +-2+-$*4-%%-5 I. )/+'0#, *$a50%56- 04->%-;&? /2*04C? 3%/4+#%%#>* +8%'- &/&6& %#G3-4'*9 +#0/+0*3 ,*:#+%&2-;&&. MD#( 3. .#9%0&-%0'-5 4#*+&5 «7*+*"%*>* '+/>- %&=#48» 0352-%- 0 %&2'&, /+*3%#, :*G*:-. M- D#( 4. [*>&"#0'&, 7+*:*6J#%&#, 4#*+&& «7*+*"%*>* '+/>- %&=#48» 04-6- 4#*+&5 «$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-» MD#( 5. @6-3%*9 &:##9 4#*+&& 7#+#G*:- ' 0-,*7*::#+J&3-?=#,/05 +*04/ 5365#405 *$*0%*3-%&# 7#+#G*:- *4 4+-:&;&*%%*>* *$=#043- ' 0*3+#,#%%*,/ *$=#043/ 2-7-:%*>* 4&7-. MD#( 6. .+&4#+&#, 38:#6#%&5 04-:&9, 7+#:6*J#%%8G !. I*04*/ 3 '*%;#7;&& 7#+#G*:- ' 0-,*7*::#+J&3-?=#,/05 +*04/, 53656&0C 0*;&-6C%*-K'*%*,&"#0'&# G-+-'4#+&04&'& MD#( 7. T#43#+4-5 04-:&5 +*04- 3 ,*:#6& !.I*04*/ –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– *0%*3%-5 G-+-'4#+&04&'- 7#+3*9 04-:&& K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +*04MD#( 11. .*%;#7;&5 «7*+*"%*>* '+/>- %&=#48» $86- +-2+-$*4-%- :65 04+-% 0 '*,-%:%*9 K'*%*,&'*9 MD#( 12. I*:*%-"-6C%&'*, 4#*+&& «$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-» 0"&4-#405 Q.I*2#%E4#9%-I*:-% M- D#( 13. A ,*:#6& I.X-++*:- &%3#04&;&& 5365?405 K'2*>#%%* 2-:-%%*9 R/%';&#9 M- D#( 14. Q+&"&%8 *404-6*04& 06-$*+-23&48G 04+-%, 0*>6-0%* 4#*+&5, «7*+*"%*>* '+/>- %&=#48»: -) Q*38E#%&# '-"#043- J&2%& *$8"%* $804+* «0a#:-#405»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«$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-» +-00,-4+&3-6& +8%*' '-' :&%-,&"#0'/? 0&04#,/. MD#( 18. <4%*E#%&# ' +#>/6&+/?=#9 07*0*$%*04& +8%'- 3 4#*+&& «$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-» 0*37-:-#4 0 %#*'#9%0&-%40'&,. MD#( 19. I#-6&2-;&5 7+*>+-,, 3 +-,'-G 4#*+&& «$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-» $86- 38>*:%- '+/7%8, '*+7*+-;&5, +-23&48G 04+-%. MD#( 20. P&-6#'4&'- ,*:#6& :3/G :#R&;&4*3 0*04*4 3 4*,, "4* +#E-5 7+*$6#,/ %#G3-4'& 0$#+#J#%&9 3#:#4 ' &2$-36#%&? *4 4*+>*3*>* :#R&;&4-, - +#E#%&# 7+*$6#,8 4*+>*3*>* :#R&;&4- 3#:#4 ' &2$-6#%&? *4 :#R&;&4- 0$#+#J#%&9. MD#( 21. (*:#6C :3/G :#R&;&4*3 3*2%&'6- %- *0%*3# '+&4&'& %#*$G*:&,*04& 3%#E%#>* R&%-%0&+*3-&5 4#*+&& $*6CE*>* 4*6"'-. MD#( 22. I-23&4&# 3 ,*:#6& :3/G :#R&;&4*3 *7+#:#65#405 '-' 384#0%#%&# 3%#E%&G &04*"%&'*3 R&%-%0&+*3-%&5 3%/4+#%%&,&, 2-,#%- &,7*+4%8G 4*3-+*3 *4#"#043#%%8,&, '-' 0*2:-%&# 3%/4+#%%&G 7+#:7*086*' :65 0*G+-%#%&5 3%#E%#9 R&%-%0*3*9 2-3&0&,*04& %- 7*04*5%%*, /+*3%#. MD#( 23. Q+&,#%#%&# 4#*+&& K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +-3%*3#0&5 :65 -%-6&2- 06-$*+-23&48G 04+-% 7*+*:&6* '*%;#7;&? «7*+*"%*>* '+/>- %&=#48». MD#( 24. )#/04*9"&3*04C +-3%*3#0&5 3 ,*:#6& X-++*:- *$a50%5#405 %#3*2,*J%*04C? :*04&J#%&5 >-+-%4&+*3-%%*>* +*04- K'*%*,&'& 3 04+-%-G «4+#4C#>* ,&+-». MD#( 25. .*%;#7;&5 %#0$-6-%0&+*3-%%*>* +*04- M. X&+E,-%- 7+#:7*6->-#4, "4* &%3#04&;&& %-+/E-?4 +-3%*3#0&# 3 *4:#6C%8G *4+-065G & K'*%*,&'# 3 ;#6*,, "4* 04-%*3&405 7+&"&%*9 '+&2&0- 3 04+-%-G «4+#4C#>* ,&+-». MD#( 26. F#*+&5 “$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-” #04C :-6C%#9E-5 '*%'+#4&2-;&5 ,*:#6& 0 :3/,5 :#R&;&4-,&. M- D#( 43 27. (*:#6C K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +*04- 0 :3/,5 :#R&;&4-,& 5365#405 *:%*9 &2 R*+, %#*'6-00&"#0'*>* 7*:G*:- ' -%-6&2/ K'*%*,&"#0'*9 K3*6?;&& 04+-% "4+#4C#>* ,&+-" MD#( &>J2;462 I;7943H8>@ 06926 (K287 069267 4 J7337.) 28. «.+/> *404-6*04&» Z. .%-66- *$a50%5#405: -) &%04&4/;&*%-6C%8,& /06*3&5,& $) +*04*, "&06#%%*04& %-0#6#%&5 3) %#G3-4'*9 '-7&4-6>) 7*6&4&"#0'*9 %#04-$&6C%*04C? 29. L*>6-0%* «7*+*"%8, '+/>-,» 7*6&4&"#0'*9 %#04-$&6C%*04& 7*06#:%55 38283-#4: -) )&2'&# 4+-%0-';&*%%8# &2:#+J'& $) A80*'&9 /+*3#%C 3%/4+#%%&G & &%*04+-%%8G &%3#04&;&9 3) !>+*2/ %-+/E#%&5 7+-3 0*$043#%%*04& >) A#+%* A & C 30. .-'-5 04-:&5 +*04- *40/4043/#4 3 '*%;#7;&& 7#+#G*:- ' 0-,*7*::#+J&3-?=#,/05 +*04/: -) 7#+&*: 0*2:-%&5 7+#:7*086*' :65 «326#4-» $) «326#4»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«$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-»: -) I. )/+'0# 3) L. ./2%#; $) M. X&+E,-% >) 3#+%* A & B 34. T4* &2 %&J# 7#+#"&06#%%*>* 7*%&,-#405 7*: +-23&4&#, 3 ,*:#6& 0 :3/,5 :#R&;&4-,&: -) >6/$*'&# 04+/'4/+%8# &2,#%#%&5, *G3-483-?=&# *0%*3%8# *4+-06& %-+*:%*>* G*259043$) 384#0%#%&# 3%#E%&G &04*"%&'*3 R&%-%0&+*3-%&5 3%/4+#%%&,&, 2-,#%- &,7*+4%8G 4*3-+*3 *4#"#043#%%8,&, 0*2:-%&# 7+#:7*086*' :65 7+#*:*6#%&5 3%#E%#9 R&%-%0*3*9 2-3&0&,*04& 3) 0&%*%&, 380*'&G 4#,7*3 +*04>) 7*38E#%&# 04#7#%& /:*36#43*+#%%*04& *0%*3%8G 7*4+#$%*04#9 30#G "6#%*3 *$=#04335. M34*+*, *:%*9 &2 4#*+&9 «7*+*"%*>* '+/>- %&=#48», 0*>6-0%* '*4*+*9 7*38E#%&# '-"#043J&2%& *$8"%* «0a#:-#405» 7*06#:/?=&, +*04*, %-0#6#%&5, 5365#405: -) I. Q+#$&E 3) Z..%-66 $) X. [#9$#%04-9% >) I..*/2 36. .4* &2 06#:/?=&G 7#+0*%-6&9 %# 5365#405 -34*+*, *:%*9 &2 4#*+&9 «$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-»? -) I.)/+0'# 3) !. I*04*/ $) @.H&%>#+ >) M.X&+E,-% 37. .-'-5 &2 06#:/?=&G %#*'6-00&"#0'&G ,*:#6#9 *7+#:#65#4 *74&,-6C%89 *$a#, &%*04+-%%8G &%3#04&;&9? 44 -) $) 3) >) ,*:#6C S.P*,-+'*%;#7;&5 %#0$-6-%0&+*3-%%*>* +*04- M.X&+E,-%,*:#6C K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +*04- 0 :3/,5 :#R&;&4-,& ,*:#6C «0$-6-%0&+*3-%%*>* %-$*+- &%3#04&;&9» I.)/+0'# 38. .-'-5 &2 04-:&9 K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +*04- 7* I*04*/ 0**43#4043/#4 K4-7/ 4#G%&"#0'*>* 7+*>+#00-? -) Q*:>*4*3'- ' 326#4/. $) A26#4. 3) Q#+&*: :3&J#%&5 ' 2+#6*04&. >) 17*G- 380*'*>* ,-00*3*>* 7*4+#$6#%&5. 39. A *0%*3# '-'*9 &2 %&J# 7#+#"&06#%%8G '*%;#7;&9 «7*+*"%8G &%04&4/;&*%-6C%8# /06*3&5. -) «Q*+*"%89 '+/> %&=#48» 7* [#9$#%04-9%/. $) «.+/> *404-6*04&» .%-66-. 3) «Q*+*"%89 '+/>» %#G3-4'& '-7&4-6- 7* )/+'0#. >) .#9%0&-%0'-5 &%4#+7+#4-;&5 «7*+*"%*>* '+/>- %&=#48». '+/>*3» 6#J-4 40. L*>6-0%* 4#*+&& «$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-»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«7*+*"%89 '+/> %&=#48» 7+#:6*J&6&: -) @.(K%'C? & P. I*,#+; $) @. H&%>#+ & I. Q+#$&E; 3) 1. X#'E#+ & Z.<6&%; >) .. (-+'0 & ].1%>#6C0. 46. T4* &2 %&J#7#+#"&06#%%*>* 5365#405 7+&"&%*9 3*2%&'%*3#%&5 «7*+*"%8G '+/>*3 %&=#48» 3 06-$*+-23&48G 04-%-G: 3) /2*04C 3%/4+#%%#>* +8%'-; -) 7*6&4&"#0'-5 %#04-$&6C%*04C; >) 30# 7#+#"&06#%%*# 3#+%*. $) 380*'-5 +*J:-#,*04C; 47. .4* &2 %&J#7#+#"&06#%%8G K'*%*,&04*3 )S 5365#405 -34*+*, *:%*>* &2 «7*+*"%8G '+/>*3 %&=#48»? -) Z. .%-66; 3) !. I*04*/; $) X. [#9$#%04-9%; >) I. )/+'0#. 45 48. .#9%0&-%0'-5 4+-:&;&5 035283-#4 3*2%&'%*3#%&# «7*+*"%8G '+/>*3 %&=#48» 0: -) %&2'&, /+*3%#, 7*4+#$6#%&5 & %&2'&, /+*3%#, 0$#+#J#%&5; $) *4%*0&4#6C%* 380*'&, /+*3%#, 7*4+#$6#%&5 7+& %&2'*, /+*3%# 0$#+#J#%&5; 3) %&2'&, /+*3%#, 7*4+#$6#%&5 7+& *4%*0&4#6C%* 380*'*, /+*3%# 0$#+#J#%&5; >) 383*2*, '-7&4-6- 2- >+-%&;/. 49. Z. .%-66 035283-#4 *404-6*04C 06-$*+-23&48G 04+-% 0* 06#:/?=&,& R-'4*+-,&: -) %&2'*9 '3-6&R&'-;&#9 +-$*"#9 0&68 & %#+-23&4*04C? 0&04#, %-+*:%*>* *$+-2*3-%&5 & 7+*R#00&*%-6C%*9 7*:>*4*3'&; $) %&2'&, /+*3%#, :*G*:-, '*4*+89 *$a50%5#405 %&2'&, /+*3%#, 7*4+#$6#%&5 & %#380*'&, /+*3%#, 0$#+#J#%&9; 3) /2*04C? 3%/4+#%%#>* +8%'- & (&6&) %#G3-4'*9 +#0/+0*3 :65 ,*:#+%&2-;&&; >) 0**4%*E#%&#, ,#J:/ +*04*, %-0#6#%&5 & &2,#%#%&#, K'*%*,&"#0'&G /06*3&9. 50. .4* &2 %&J#7#+#"&06#%%8G K'*%*,&04*3 %# 5365#405 -34*+*, 4#*+&& « $*6CE*>* 4*6"'-»? -) @. H&%>#+; 3) I. X-++*:; $) I. )/+'0#; >) M. X&+E,-%. 51. P65 '-'*9 4#*+&& $86- 7+5,* &07*6C2*3-%- '*%;#7;&5 7#+#G*:- ' 0-,*7*::#+J&3-?=#,/05 +*04/?; -) 4#*+&5 «7*+*"%*>* '+/>- %&=#48»; $) ,*:#6C K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +*04- 0 :3/,5 :#R&;&4-,&; 3) '*%;#7;&5 «$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-»; >) '*%;#7;&5 «'+/>- *404-6*04&»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«$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-» 7*53&6&0C %- *0%*3#: -) '*%;#7;&9 0-,*7*::#+J&3-?=#>*05 +*04- & 7*+*"%*>* '+/>- %&=#48; $) ,-+'0&2,-; 3) ,*:#6#9 :/-6&04&"#0'*9 K'*%*,&'&; >) %&"#>* &2 38E#7#+#"&06#%%*>*. 57. P65 4#*+#4&'*3 «$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-»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s - 7+#:#6C%-5 0'6*%%*04C ' 0$#+#J#%&?, 4* +-3%*3#0%89 4#,7 +*04- :*G*:-, 7+& '*4*+*, 7*6%*04C? &07*6C2/?405 7+*&23*:043#%%8# ,*=%*04&: -) 7+5,* 7+*7*+;&*%-6#% s & *$+-4%* 7+*7*+;&*%-6#% '; $) *$+-4%* 7+*7*+;&*%-6#% s & 7+5,* 7+*7*+;&*%-6#% '; 3) 7+5,* 7+*7*+;&*%-6#% s & '; >) *$+-4%* 7+*7*+;&*%-6#% s & '. 61. .4* &2 %&J#7#+#"&06#%%8G K'*%*,&04*3 %# $86 -34*+*, ,*:#6& K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +*04- 0 :3/,5 :#R&;&4-,&? -) I. X-++*:; 3) ). .-+4#+; $) (. Z+/%*; >) X. T#%%#+&. 62. .-'*9 &2 %&J#7#+#"&06#%%8G R-'4*+*3 %# /"&483-#405 3 ,*:#6& K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +*04- 0 :3/,5 :#R&;&4-,&? -) Q*4+#$6#%&#; 3) Q+*&23*:&4#6C%*04C 4+/:-; $) L$#+#J#%&5; >) 1'07*+4. 63. <$a#, &%*04+-%%*9 7*,*=& 3 ,*:#6& 0 :3/,5 :#R&;&4-,& *7+#:#65#405 7* R*+,/6# Ft = Mt – Et = Mn + U’ (Yt – Yn) – En (I – V) t – n 3 06/"-# -) :#R&;&4- 0$#+#J#%&9; $) 4*+>*3*>* :#R&;&4-; 3) *7+#:#6#%&5 -$0*+$;&*%%*9 07*0*$%*04& 04+-% "4+#4C#>* ,&+-"; >) R*+,/6- %#3#+%-. )6926H62 87 5321E]^42 90I;05> I09>[2880@ 530\80564 (K287 069267 10 J73309.) 64. L+-3%&4# 4#*+&? « 7*+*"%*>* '+/>- %&=#48» 0 0-,*7*::#+J&3-?=#,/05 +*04/ & ,*:#6C? 0 :3/,5 :#R&;&4-,&. -) A "`, #:&%043* & 3 "`, +-26&"&5? $) .-'*3- 32-&,*0352C K4&G 4#*+&9? 3) A "`, 2-'6?"-#405 '#9%0&-0'-5 7+&+*:- K4&G 4#*+&9? >) A "`, &G :*04*&%043- & %#:*04-4'&? '*%;#7;&#9 7#+#G*:- ' 65. .+-4'* *G-+-'4#+&2/94# *0%*3%8# 3-+&-%48 4#*+&& «7*+*"%*>* '+/>- %&=#48». -) )- "#, *0%*383-#405 4#*+&5 '3-2&04-$&6C%*>* +-3%*3#0&5 X. [#9$#%04-9%-? .-'*37+&"&%%*-06#:043#%%-5 32-&,*0352C *0%*3%8G K6#,#%4*3 '*%;#7;&&. $) .-'*3- *0%*3%-5 &:#5 7*+*"%*>* '+/>- %&=#48 I. )/+'0#? 3) T#, *46&"-#405 "'+/> *404-6*04&" 7* Z. .%-66/? >) .-'*38 *0%*3%8# K6#,#%48 «7*+*"%*>* '+/>- %&=#48» 3 '#9%0&-%0'*9 &%4#+7+#4-;&&? :) Q#+#"&06&4# *0%*3%8# %#:*04-4'& 4#*+&& «7*+*"%8G '+/>*3 %&=#48» 66. Q+*-%-6&2&+/94# '*%;#7;&? 7#+#G*:- ' 0-,*7*::#+J&3-?=#,/05 +*04/ !.I*04*/ & *43#4C4# %- 06#:/?=&# 3*7+*08: -) )- 7+&3#:#%%*, >+-R&'# *$*2%-"C4# 04-:&& K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +*04-, 38:#65#,8# !.I*04*/. 47 $) A87*6%#%&# '-'&G /06*3&9 7* !.I*04*/ %#*$G*:&,* :65 4*>*, "4*$8 +*04 04-6 -34*,-4&"#0'&,? 3) I-00,*4+&4# 0R#+/ 0#6C0'*>* G*259043- & ## 0*:#+J-%&# %- '-J:*9 &2 04-:&9. y (+.#)%#)EQ#=&J )&H&)) t (=.#'6) >) LR*+,/6&+/94# /06*3&5 0-,*7*::#+J&3-?=#>*05 +*04-. :) .-'*3* 0*:#+J-%&# «E#04*9 04-:&&»? P65 "#>* *%- $86- 7+#:6*J#%- !.I*04*/? 67. Q/04C AAQ %-"-6C%*>* 7#+&*:- Y0=5000 , 7+#:#6C%-5 7+*&23*:&4#6C%*04C '-7&4-6- 0*04-365#4 15%, - %*+,- 0$#+#J#%&9 20%. -) <7+#:#6&4# *$a#, AAQ 3 06#:/?=#, 7#+&*:# 3 0**43#4043&# 0 ,*:#6C? S. P*,-+7+& /06*3&& 0*G+-%#%&5 :&%-,&"#0'*>* +-3%*3#0&5. $) <7+#:#6&4# &2,#%#%&5 3 *$a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a#:&%#%%-5 ,*:#6C X-++*:--P*,-+-? 69. Q/04C 3 ,*:#6& I.X-++*:- :*G*: 3 %/6#3*, & 4#'/=#, 7#+&*:#Y0=5000, Y1=5100. M'0#6#+-4*+ +-3#% 3, - '*KRR&;&#%4 76-%&+*3-%&5 +-0G*:*3 '=1,1. -) <7+#:#6&4# 4#'=/? %*+,/ 0$#+#J#%&5 7+& /06*3&& +-3%*3#0%*>* K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +*04-. $) <7+#:#6&4# 3#6&"&%/ >-+-%4&+*3-%%*>* +*04-. 3) <7+#:#6&4# :*G*: (Y2) 06#:/?=#>* 7#+&*:- & 3#6&"&%/ R-'4&"#0'*>* +*04-. >) L+-3%&4# R-'4&"#0'&9 +*04 & >-+-%4&+*3-%%89, *$a50%&4# &G 0*37-:#%&# &6& %#0*37-:#%&#. 70. L+-3%&4# '*%;#7;&& «$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-» I.)/+'0# & M.X&+E,-%- & *43#4C4# %- 06#:/?=&# 3*7+*08: -) A "#, *0%*3%*# *46&"&# K4&G :3/G '*%;#7;&9? $) .-'&# R-'4*+8 %# /"&483-#4 '*%;#7;&5 I.)/+'0#? 3) A "#, :*04*&%043- & %#:*04-4'& '*%;#7;&& M.X&+E,-%-? >) .-'*3- +*6C >*0/:-+043- 3 '*%;#7;&5G X&+E,-%- & )/+'0#? 71. .+-4'* *G-+-'4#+&2/94# '*%;#7;&? "$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-" & #` *0%*3%8# 3-+&-%48. -) .-'-5 ,*:#6C 6#>6- 3 *0%*3/ 4#*+&& “$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-” & 7*"#,/? $) <G-+-'4#+&2/94# +-26&"&5 3 +#'*,#%:-;&5G 7* *0/=#0436#%&? ,*:#+%&2-;&& 3 '*%;#7;&5G I.)/+'0#, M.X&+E,-%-, @.H&%>#+-? 3) .-'&# +#-6&& “4+#4C#>* ,&+-” %# /"&483-6& 4#*+#4&'& '*%;#7;&& “$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-”? 48 >) A "#, 0G*:043* & 3 "#, +-26&"&# 3 7*%&,-%&& +-23&4&5 3 7*:G*:# !.I*04*/ & -34*+*3 4#*+&& “$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-”? 72. A "#, :*04*&%043- & %#:*04-4'& ,*:#6& 0 :3/,5 :#R&;&4-,& ? -) .*>:- $86- 0*2:-%- K4- ,*:#6C & :65 '-'&G 04+-%? $) .-'*3* 0**4%*E#%&# 4#*+&& "$*6CE*>* 4*6"'-" & ,*:#6& 0 :3/,5 :#R&;&4-,&? 3) .-' +#E-#405 3 K4*9 ,*:#6& 7+*$6#,- :#R&;&4- 0$#+#J#%&9? >) .-' +#E-#405 3 K4*9 ,*:#6& 7+*$6#,- 4*+>*3*>* :#R&;&4-? :) !'-J&4# *0%*3%8# %#:*04-4'& ,*:#6& K'*%*,&"#0'*>* +*04- 0 :3/,5 :#R&;&4-,&. 49