East Kazakhstan Region EKR is located in the east of the country. As of January 1, 2012 the area is 283.2 thousand square kilometers, the region's population - 1395.1 thousand people (8.4% of the total Kazakh population). Density of population over the region per 1 km is 4.9 people (only for Kazakhstan - 6.1). As of January 1, 2012 Area, thousand square kilometers Density for 1 square kilometer 283.2 10.4 4.9 6.1 Index level in RK 1395.1 8.4 Share in total RK population, % 757.5 8.6 Share in total RK EAP, % 717.9 8.6 Share in RK index, % 481.7 39.6 8.6 8.4 Share in RK index, % Share in RK index, % 73677 90028 Index level in RK 40484 45435 Index level in RK 118.6 117.2 Level in RK 1 624.3 5.9 107.1 107.4 822.9 5.2 Share in RK index, % Agriculture total output (services), billion Tenge 202.2 8.8 Share in RK index, % Fixed asset investment, billion Tenge 242.0 4.8 Share in RK index, % Retail trade, billion Tenge 362.5 9.4 Share in total RK index, % Resource base includes reserves of lead, zinc, tin, tungsten, molybdenum, manganese, gold, mercury, antimony, lignite and hard coal, oil shale and building materials. Administrative-territorial structure of the region includes the regional center of Ust-Kamenogorsk, 15 districts, 10 cities, 30 towns, 870 villages. Economically active population employed The main socio-economic indicators of the region for 2011 are provided in the table. hired labor unemployed Monthly average nominal salary, Tenge Nominal population income (estimation), average per capita a month, Tenge Compared to previous year in % Demography Thousand people Region’s population is decreasing, while country’s population is growing. Population in 2000 was 1517 thousand people, at the beginning of 2012 года – 1395 thousand people, but decreasing pace is slowing down: 1570 1520 1,517 1,499 1,483 1,466 1,455 1420 1,442 1,4311,425 1,417 1,395 1370 1,3971,398 1,398 1320 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1470 Population, thousand people Share in total RK area, % 2011 GRP, billion Tenge CPI (end of period), by December of previous year in % Volume of industrial product, billion Tenge Share in total RK GRP, % Index level in RK 1 Economically active population (EAP) EAP of the region is increasing at a moderate pace and in 2011 it reached 757.5 thousand people. 717.9 thousand people of those are employed, 36.9 thousand people are unemployed. The economically inactive population made up 373.7 thousand in 2011, it is lower than in 2000: Labor Force Thou Economicall sand y inactive peop population le Economically active population including: Employed Unemploy ed The number of employed people increases and unemployed people falls in both absolute and relative terms. For 10 years, from 2001 to 2011, the employed population has increased from 93 to 95%, while the number of unemployed people has fallen from 7 to 5%. Characteristic feature of the employed population dynamics is the growth of hired labor and the reduction of self-employed people. From 2001 to 2011 the number of hired labor has increased from 60 to 70%, the number of self-employed people has fallen from 40 to 33%. EAP and employed people structure corresponds to the average in Kazakhstan: EAP Structure in 2001 including: EAP Structure in 2011 7% Hired labor Self-employed 2001 406.7 390.2 744.4 760.7 61.4 55.9 683 704.8 406.9 425.7 276.1 279.2 2002 393.8 722.9 52.5 670.4 409.6 260.8 2003 400.5 743.5 54.1 689.4 423.1 266.3 2004 2005 402.4 401.2 752.1 751.7 54.5 53.6 697.6 698.1 432.9 444.6 264.7 253.5 2006 391.4 756.8 52.4 704.4 458.6 245.8 2007 382.9 764.2 50.6 713.7 468.8 244.9 2008 378.3 765 49.1 715.9 473.3 242.6 2009 2010 376.9 371 764 769.8 48.9 43.8 715.1 726.1 472.6 483.7 242.4 242.3 2011 373.7 757.5 39.6 717.9 481.7 236.2 2000 5% Unemploye d Employed 93% 95% Employed Population Structure in 2001 Employed Population Structure in 2011 Hired labor 33% 40% 60% Selfemployed 67% 2 Unemployment 68 68 67 • In 2011 unemployment rate of the region was below the Kazakhstan’s average – 5.4%: The changes of employed population structure is supported by a strong tendency of unemployment rate reduction from 8.2% in 2000 to 5,2% in 2011 and growth in economic activity of the population: Kazakhstan - 5,4 9 8.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.4 67 6.4 5.7 5.2 66 66 65 66.9 65 67.5 67.0 67.0 66.6 64 64 64.7 66.1 64.7 65.0 65.2 65.9 65.1 63 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Economic activity rate, % Unemployment rate, % City of Almaty Алматы 5.6 City of Astana Астана 5.8 8 East Kazakhstan Восточно-Казахстанская 7 Северо-Казахстанская North Kazakhstan 6 5 4 3 2 5.2 5.4 5.2 Павлодарская Pavlodar 5.7 Южно-Казахстанская South Kazakhstan 5.8 Мангистауская Mangistau 5.5 Кызылординская Kyzylorda 5.4 Костанайская Kostanay 5.3 Карагандинская Karaganda 5.5 Zhambyl Жамбылская 1 West Kazakhstan Западно-Казахстанская 0 Atyrau Атырауская 5.3 5 Almaty Алматинская 5.1 Aktobe Актюбинская 4.9 Akmola Акмолинская 5.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 % 3 Quality of Life Life expectancy at birth in the region is increasing, but dynamic values are below the average of RK in general: number of years 70.0 EKR 69.0 68.3 68.4 69.0 68.0 67.0 66.0 65.5 65.8 66.0 65.8 66.2 65.9 66.2 66.3 63.0 65.2 65.4 65.3 65.4 64.8 64.9 65.0 64.5 Child mortality for 1000 quick-born 67.1 65.0 64.0 Maternal mortality for 100,000 quickborn 66.9 67.0 65.8 67.7 Number of TB cases registered for the first time, 100,000 Share of population with income used for consumption below the poverty line is decreasing, however, it is above the average in RK in 2011: % 50 46.7 44.5 40 37.5 20 10 0 33.9 31.6 30 18.2 36.8 36.1 31.9 31.6 26.6 22,4 17,4 109,8 86.8 8,71 RK 12.7 12.1 8.2 12.5 9.8 9.9 6.6 6.5 5.3 8.4 6.1 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 East Kazakhstan region RK Monthly average in tenge East Kazakhstan region 17,88 14,84 11,90 Mortality for 1000 people 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 RK 16,40 22,50 Birth rate for 1000 people 62.0 Some of life quality indicators in 2011: Cost of living has been growing steadily since 2003, but the values are below the average in RK: 18,000 15,847 16,000 14,000 11,53111,912 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,202 6,898 7,863 7,953 8,410 6,000 4,000 6,457 8,833 6,785 12,644 16,072 13,487 12,660 12,364 9,653 7,618 2,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 East Kazakhstan region 2009 2010 RK 2011 4 Enrollment 78.2 77.3 % 78.7 78.9 75.4 74.9 72.5 72.9 73.6 69.9 71.8 73.2 75 73.9 72.5 72.1 70.5 East Kazakhstan region 70.5 72.2 72.2 10.0 8.0 6.0 31,408 4.0 2.0 45,546 37,629 60,000 9.0 8.6 48,401 8.5 8.2 50,000 7.9 7.7 51,798 52,356 50,517 40,000 30,000 49,817 20,000 46,508 10,000 47,709 0.0 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 East Kazakhstan region Share in RK 45 000 40 000 35 000 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 Share in RK Number of students in higher education increases despite a decrease of the region’s population : 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.1 7.3 7.2 6.8 7.0 6.6 6.8 47,541 47,422 47,775 6.640,225 54,838 51,027 6.4 45,930 52,770 6.2 48,381 50,732 6.0 5.8 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 % 11.1 11.0 10.8 10.4 9.6 people % 12.0 9. 8.3 7.9 8. 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.5 7. 6.5 6. 5. 4. 3. 15 554 38 897 17 824 2. 13 637 10 911 32 629 1. 17 479 9 123 10 129 12 246 . East Kazakhstan region RK Number of students in technical and vocational education has increased despite a decrease of the region’s population: Number of children in regular preschools has increased significantly since 2001: people 75.4 76.9 % 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 64 62 60 East Kazakhstan region 60,000 50,000 40,000 people Enrollment share of the population aged 6-24 years increased from 2001, however, value is below the average in RK: 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Share in RK 5 Population Income Monthly average nominal salary per employee for EKR in 2011 was 73,677 Tenge, it is below the national average – 90,028 KZT In dynamics the average nominal salary per employee and the average nominal income per capita are ever-growing: 80000 73677 70000 % tenge 61388 Kazakhstan – 90,028 60000 53496 г. Алматы 121674 City of Almaty 48293 Астана 132612 50000 City ofг.Astana 42137 41238 Восточно-Казахстанская East Kazakhstan 73677 34133 40000 33101 Северо-Казахстанская 61712 North Kazakhstan 27877 30084 27688 30000 23846 75338 22073 Павлодарская 20099 Pavlodar 16832 18816 16665 67721 Южно-Казахстанская 20000 12793 South Kazakhstan 9296 10095 11883 8226 Мангистауская 151041 10000 Mangistau Кызылординская 81518 Kyzylorda 0 Костанайская 67252 Kostanay 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Карагандинская 77940 Karaganda Жамбылская 61825 The average nominal salary per employee, tenge Zhambyl Западно-Казахстанская 87503 The average nominal income per capita, tenge West Kazakhstan Атырауская 165975 Atyrau 140 132.5 67638 Алматинская Almaty 130.3 Актюбинская 79878 Aktobe 130 126.3 64495 Акмолинская 120.8 Akmola 117.7 113.5 120 119.9 121.2 110.9 113.0 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 107.7 107.9 Тенге 111.8 108.6 110 108.8 109.6 105.7 106.0 The index of the nominal and real incomes 100 102.5 99.2 100.7 101.0 showed a decline during the economic crisis in 2009. In 2005 the growth of nominal income was lower than the consumer price index, i.e. revenue growth did not cover inflation: 90 108 106.5 106.2107.3 107.8 108 116.1 110.5 105.7 108.1107.1 80 2001 2002 2003 2004 Consumer price index 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 The index of nominal income The index of real income 6 Economy • GRP growth in 2011 is below the average growth of total GRP of all the regions of Kazakhstan and makes up 130.6% compared to 2010, against the total value of the RK - 126.4%: 1,800.0 1,600.0 1,400.0 10 9.19 9 8.6 7.8 1,624 8 7.3 6.7 1,200.0 7 6.2 6.2 1,000.0 5.8 6.0 5.7 5.9 5.5 800.0 801 600.0 890 984 1,244 615 400.0 200.0 239 281 293 334 392 468 6 5 4 3 region's share in total GRP (%) bln. tenge • Despite GRP growth, EKR share in total GRP of all the regions has decreased from 9.2% in 2000 to 5.9% in 2011: Growth of total GRP in RK - 126,4 City of г. Almaty Алматы 124.8 City ofг.Astana Астана 117.9 East Kazakhstan Восточно-Казахстанская 130.6 North Kazakhstan Северо-Казахстанская 143.0 Pavlodar Павлодарская 148.0 South Kazakhstan Южно-Казахстанская 125.1 Mangistau Мангистауская 117.9 Kyzylorda Кызылординская 120.4 Kostanay Костанайская 132.5 Karaganda Карагандинская 2 1 128.0 Zhambyl Жамбылская 142.1 West Kazakhstan Западно-Казахстанская 126.2 Atyrau Атырауская 0.0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 GRP Region's share in total GRP 121.2 Almaty Алматинская 124.9 Aktobe Актюбинская 125.9 Akmola Акмолинская 138.1 0 50 100 150 200 % compared to previous year 7 Investment bln. tenge • Fixed assets investment tends to a stable significant growth, however, it showed a decrease in value during the crisis – in 2009 and 2010: 300 4,5854654 4,211 250 200 100 0 4,000 3,392 596 38 39 37 45 51 3,000 242 1,704 1,328 943 1,100 82 116 127 6,000 5,000 2,825 2,421 150 50 5 010 161 139 145 1,000 Восточно-Казахстанская East Kazakhstan Северо-Казахстанская North Kazakhstan % • The share of fixed assets investment in the Kazakhstan’s investment decreased from 6.3% in 2000 to 4.8% in 2011: 7.0 4.0 6.3 3.0 4.8 4.1 4.1 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.7 104.3 144.3 167.0 134.7 Павлодарская Pavlodar Южно-Казахстанская South Kazakhstan RK 5.0 City ofг.Алматы Almaty г.Астана City of Astana 0 East Kazakhstan region Growth in Kazakhstan in general – 107.7 2,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 6.0 • Growth of fixed asset investment in 2011 exceeded significantly the total level of all RK regions, and made up 167% compared to previous year against 107.7% in RK. This tendency, however, is the result of base effect from stronger investment decrease in 2010 in EKR compared to the average level of RK: 3.8 3.1 3.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 112.0 104.0 Мангистауская Mangistau Кызылординская Kyzylorda Костанайская Kostanay Карагандинская Karaganda Жамбылская Zhambyl Западно-Казахстанская West Kazakhstan Атырауская Atyrau Алматинская Almaty Актюбинская Aktobe Акмолинская Akmola 99.3 89.9 124.7 119.9 72.6 73.0 97.4 121.6 105.9 114.9 0 50 100 150 200 % compared to previous year 8 Agriculture bln. tenge The volume production in agriculture increased until 2009, it decreased in 2010 to 153.1 billion Tenge: 180 1,641.4 160 1,404.5 1,600 1,442.6 140 1,089.4 120 165.7 100 80 60 557.4 533.6 402.0 97.1 0 East Kazakhstan region RK 10.6 11.6 4.2 Павлодарская Pavlodar 11.4 Южно-Казахстанская South Kazakhstan 800 Мангистауская Mangistau 600 Кызылординская Kyzylorda 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0.1 Северо-Казахстанская North Kazakhstan 200 37.5 г. Астана City of Astana 1,200 400 70.1 75.1 77.9 55.1 58.2 20 0.1 Восточно-Казахстанская East Kazakhstan 1,000 117.4 г. Алматы City of Almaty 1,400 153.1 825.6 763.8 615.4 698.9 40 1,800 • The share of the region’s volume of production in agriculture in total Kazakhstan’s volume of industry’s production. In 2010 10.6% agricultural production of the country was produced in EKR: 0.3 3.1 14.8 Костанайская Kostanay 5.8 Карагандинская Karaganda 4.7 Жамбылская Zhambyl 3.7 Западно-Казахстанская West Kazakhstan 1.3 Атырауская Atyrau 15.1 Алматинская Almaty 5.7 Актюбинская Aktobe 7.5 Акмолинская Akmola 0 5 10 15 20 % of total 9 Real Sector Growth of industrial production volumes was observed throughout the study period, excluding crisis year 2008, when manufacturing volumes showed the decrease: bln. tenge 1,000 822.9 800 641.3 600 485.9 470.2 492.1 416.6 400 200 143.3 350 260.2 222.8 171.0173.8 182.0 126 0 161 35 26 365 633 463 Million Tenge 116 115 62 75 50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Mining industry output Manufacturing output Electricity, gas and water production and distribution • The share of industrial production in the Kazakhstan’s level increased from 8% in 2000 to 5.2% in 2011: % 16 14 12 10.33 10.48 10 8 6 8.0 8.6 7.4 6.4 5.8 4 2 1.70 12.05 12.39 9.21 5.0 6.4 13.19 9.97 7.99 2010 335 86 30 • Real sector industries, showing the highest values of production in 2010 were metallurgical industry, agriculture, mining of metal ores, construction, machine industry, chemical industry, coal and lignite, etc. These industries have significant share of total production in the Republic of Kazakhstan: 6.2 4.6 1.38 7.47 7.38 7.16 5.4 5.3 1.56 5.2 Share in Share RK level in 2010 GRP Metallurgy and manufacture of finished metal products 255 901 15,1 20,6 Agriculture 153 133 10,6 12,3 Mining of metal ores 102 739 15,7 8,3 81 326 4,2 6,5 67 151 7,4 5,4 62 083 7,4 5,0 Machine engineering 56 955 15,1 4,6 Production of other non-metallic mineral products 41 190 20,4 3,3 Chemical industry 21 673 17,5 1,7 Mining of coal and lignite 7 888,6 6,0 0,6 Construction Production of food products, beverages and tobacco Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water 1.14 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 10 SME RK East Kazakhstan region 6% 1% 4% • SME share of the region's GRP is increasing with a moderate pace, but it is below the RK’s average level: % • The number of registered legal entities as of October 1, 2012 equals 19 223. The SME number is 19 049. The structure of the enterprises number is close to the RK average level: 1% 40 35 30.4 31.6 33.4 27.6 30 25 20 Small 18.9 19.7 15 Medium 10 Large 93% 20.3 20.7 19.0 2005 2006 24.6 25.2 27.3 26.9 2008 2009 2010 2011 17.9 5 95% 2007 East Kazakhstan region RK 11 Interbudgetary Relations Budget revenues of EKR region in 2011 amounted to 186.8 trillion Tenge, including 133.9 trillion Tenge of transfers from the national budget. Expenses amounted to 185.8 trillion Tenge, including 1.1 trillion Tenge of transfers to the national budget. Thus, the region is subventional. Name Cash execution Million Tenge Revenues including income transfers Expenses including transfers Budget deficit (surplus) 186 133 185 1 Expenses Deficit (-), surplus (+) 2000 33378 32908 470 2001 30460 31096 -636 2002 27746 29036 -1290 2003 35728 35199 529 200000 5000 2004 43208 43603 -395 180000 4000 2005 50491 52427 -1936 976.4 2000 2006 69794 67816 1977 1000 2007 95764 91983 3781 2008 111424 116368 -4943 2009 134860 134070 791 2010 156969 158893 -1924 2011 186769 185792 976 3781.2 3000 160000 Million Tenge 768.7 888.8 792.3 147.7 976.5 Revenues 1977 140000 120000 100000 -636 80000 60000 790.8 529 470 -395 -1290 0 -1000 -1924.3 -2000 -1936 -3000 40000 -4000 20000 -4943.4 0 -5000 -6000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Revenues Expenses and credits Deficit (-), surplus (+) 12 East Kazakhstan Region Development Program for 20112015 Main target indicators: Increase GRP Volume Index to 129.9%; Increase the share of processing industry in GRP to 26.7%; Increase the share of non-resource exports in total exports to 80.6%; Increase the share of innovative enterprises to 17.7%; Increase in the share of local content in the procurement of government agencies and organizations, strategic companies - goods to 61.5%; Increase the share of domestic production of building materials to 80.0%; Increase the gross value added of light industry by 50%; Increase the chemical industry to 12,5 Billion Tenge; Increase total revenue of service providers in the field of tourism activity not less than 15% of 2008 level (2 776.7 mln); Productivity growth in agriculture by 2 times; Increase the export potential of agriculture to 34.4 million dollars.; Increase the number of jobs created by 3.1% (13,986 people); Increase the number of employed people in 2015 (732600 people) 13