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The Research of Humanitarian Aid Needs in Regions of Donetsk and Lugansk Decemder 2014 Methodology The research was conducted during December 2-16, 2014 on demand of the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center and “Dopomozhemo TV“. Quantitative component Qualitative component Telephone public inquiry in 131/26-27 communities Analytical notes 26 communities Local citizens Doctors, pharmacist, taxi drivers, shop assistants, media, social networks, locals 2 Quantitative Component The project estimated the humanitarian aid needs of community residents in both the Region of Donetsk and the Region of Lugansk. Inquiries were held by Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) applying the Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing method (CATI). Respondents at the age over 18 were inquired. Sample size: 2101 respondents from 26 most needing communities were inquired in December (It was not possible to hold the inquiry in Pervomaysk due to telephone communications failure). According to the September inquiry results communities were classified, joining under one class if having similar aid needs structure (hierarchical cluster analysis method applied). Such an analysis made it possible to distinguish a group of communities, the residents of which are in the most aid need, and focus the further needs research on those particularly. In the inquiries, held from October to December, the current resident needs in foodstuff, medical supplies and non-grocery goods were investigated, as well as the work of medical and educational facilities, communications status. 3 Qualitative Component Analytical notes on each of the communities were prepared basing on combination of several data collection methods, applied in Sociology: Ethnomethodology method – a behaviour research through empirical observation of daily routines. Local residents are considered to be experts, competent in their everyday experiences. Participant observation method – informal collection of research-relevant data, conducted by the researcher himself (mostly notes authors were located in their research communities or quickly conveyed the information to Kyiv). Expert interview – obtaining a unique expert information from the professionals in research-relevant areas – medicine (doctors, apothecary pharmacist), transportation (operators), humanitarian aid (government and Territorial Social Services Centres employees). Key informant method – obtaining a unique information from those possessing the knowledge of current situation (taxi drivers, shop assistants and market salesmen) + information from local media. Social networks monitoring – obtaining a unique information from the on-line content, generated by residents in communities of social network VKontakte. 4 Inquiry Geography 5 Main Results Real-life Situation Estimation In the past month the number of people, estimating the situation as unbearable (“not possible to bear our misery”), has increased by 7% Which of the statements is most relevant to current situation? 54 Ноябрь November 48 December Декабрь 43 36 6 5 Все плохо и можно ЖитьLife трудно, ноbut можно Терпетьtoнаше Not possible bear our Notне soтак bad, you can live is hard, жить терпеть бедственное положение misery on bearable уже невозможно 5 4 Затрудняюсь Hard toответить tell 7 Situation Changes in the Community The negative estimation fall of situation changes in the community has stopped, still there is no improvement present. More than a half of the respondents consider the situation still permanently bad in December. How has the situation in you community changed over the past week? 3% 8% 35% 9% 32% 3% сентябрь September 4% 3% октябрь October 16% 21% 15% 3% 16% 1% ноябрь November 7% 18% декабрь December 25% Немного Slightly улучшилось better Значительно Significantlyулучшилось better Немного Slightly ухудшилось worse Значительно Significantlyухудшилось worse 25% 8 The Main Problems of Community Security(1) The Problems % of references Shooting, bombing in the community 69 High crime level 11 People disappearances 6 Governmental abuse of power 4 Drug addiction 3 Persecutions on ethnic or language grounds Threats against women 1 0.3 Threats against children 0.1 Other 1 There is no problems in Security 11 Hard to tell 14 53% of respondents claim, that there are military actions held on their community territory. More than 2/3 of residents consider shooting and bombing main security problem. 9 The Main Problems of Community Security(2) qualitative component Afraid of artillery attack. In general, crime statistics does not exceed the pre-war level. Violence against residents. Fraud practices – money extortion from relatives of someone “in trouble”. Cases of looting and burglaries on the part of the kasaks in Pervomaysk, crime occurrence very frequent. Cases of burglary, looting, abuse, violence on the part of residents in Sverdlovsk – they are doing that out of despair as the locals say. Afraid of armed men in uniform under the influence of alcohol in the communities and on the roads. 10 Basic Needs % of population lacking... ноябрь November декабрь December 58 45 45 38 34 24 Householdтоваров goods бытовых Medical supplies медикаментов Food продуктов At average, the level of needs in household goods, medical supplies and foodstuff increased by 8%. 11 Foodstuff Needs Which of the food products are in the shortest supply in Your community? крупы cereals мясные и рыбные tinned meatконсервы and fish растительное масло vegetable oil свежее мясо fresh meat сахар sugar сливочноеbutter масло молочные концентраты milk concentrates flour мука macaroni products макаронные изделия diary products свежиеfresh молочные продукты fish рыба rootкорнеплоды vegetable potatoes картофель bread хлеб freshфрукты fruits свежие confectionary кондитерские изделия baby food детское питание fresh water питьевая вода other другое 29 26 24 18 16 13 13 12 % of community residents 11 10 9 6 5 4 4 3 1 1 1 12 Medical Supplies Needs Which of the medicaments are in the shortest supply in your community? Сердечные Cardiac 39 Препараты от давления For blood pressure 26 Успокоительные Antianxiety 20 Противовоспалительные Anti-inflammatory 9 Антивирусные препараты Aniviral 9 Жаропонижающие Antipyretic 9 Противокашлевые Antitussic 7 Инсулин Insulin 7 Антибиотики Antiniotics Витамины Vitamins Противоаллергенные Antiallergic… Другое Other % of community residents 6 2 2 18 13 Household Goods Needs Which of the hygiene products and household goods are in the shortest supply in Your community? Моющие стиральные средства Washingиand cleaning products 32 Мыло, шампунь Soap, shampoo 30 Зубная паста Toothpaste 19 Napkins, toilet бумага paper Салфетки, туалетная 10 Diapers, sanitary napkin Подгузники, прокладки 5 Candles, matches Свечи, спички 2 Underwear, Нательное белье, socks носки 1 Warn clothes Теплая одежда 1 Heater Обогреватели 0 Blanket Одеяло 0 Other Другое % of community residents 1 14 Communities Humanitarian Needs Объем выборки Sample size Zuevka 47 Novotoshkovskoe 47 Зуевка 47 Потребность Потребность в Medical Supplies в продуктах Foodstuff Needs медикаментах Needs питания 61,7% 70,2% 70.2% 61.7% 76,6% 61,7% Потребность в Hygiene Products предметах Needs гигиены 57,4% 57.4% 55,3% Всего (есть хоть одна All (at least one need) потребность) 83,0% 83.0% 83,0% 47 47 76.6% 61.7% 55.3% 83.0% 47 46 66.0% 72.3% 44.7% 80.9% 46 32 63.0% 69.6% 54.3% 80.4% 59.4% 65.6% 56.3% 78.1% Krasnodon 32 45 Kirovskoe Краснодон 45 47 51.1% 63,8% 71.1% 63,8% 26.7% 59,6% 77.8% 76,6% Кировское 47 47 63.8% 48,9% 63.8% 55,3% 59.6% 42,6% 76.6% 76,6% Stakhanov Харцизск 47 92 48.9% 59,8% 55.3% 63,0% 42.6% 53,3% 76.6% 76,1% Горловка Gorlovka 153 153 60.1% 60,1% 62.7% 62,7% 47.7% 47,7% 75.8% 75,8% Дебальцево Debaltseve 47 47 66.0% 66,0% 66.0% 66,0% 29.8% 29,8% 74.5% 74,5% Зугрес Zugres 31 31 51.6% 51,6% 67.7% 67,7% 38.7% 38,7% 74.2% 74,2% Енакиево Yenakievo 92 92 59.8% 59,8% 63.0% 63,0% 43.5% 43,5% 73.9% 73,9% Снежное Snizhne 47 47 53.2% 53,2% 57.4% 57,4% 31.9% 31,9% 72.3% 72,3% Макеевка Makeevka 203 203 52,7% 52.7% 58,6% 58.6% 41,9% 41.9% 70,9% 70.9% Илловайск Ilovaisk 47 47 51,1% 51.1% 57,4% 57.4% 46,8% 46.8% 70,2% 70.2% Стаханов 92 30 46.7% 46,7% 63.3% 63,3% 40.0% 40,0% 70.0% 70,0% 47 42.6% 66.0% 34.0% 68.1% 46 47.8% 45 48.9% 300 33.0% 47 51.1% 61.7% 40.4% 66.0% Луганск 300 300 38.7% 58.7% 29.0% 65.7% Алчевск 93 93 48.4% 54.8% 30.1% 64.5% 30 91 42.9% 52.7% 25.3% 58.2% 32 32 21.9% 46.9% 18.8% 56.3% Новотошковское Yasinovataya Ясиноватая Yunokomunarovsk Юнокоммунаровск Komsomolskoe Комсомольское Khartsyzk Stanytsa Luganskaya Джержинский Dzerzhynsk 47 Avdiivka 46 Shakhtarsk 45 Авдеевка Шахтерск Донецк Donetsk Докучаевск Dokuchaevsk Lugansk Alchevsk Станица Луганская Sverdlovsk Светлодарск Svetlodarsk 300 47 66,0% 63,0% 59,4% 51,1% 42,6% 47,8% 48,9% 33,0% 51,1% 38,7% 48,4% 42,9% 21,9% 72,3% 69,6% 65,6% 71,1% 66,0% 60.9% 60,9% 60.0% 60,0% 53.3% 53,3% 61,7% 58,7% 54,8% 52,7% 46,9% 44,7% 54,3% 56,3% 26,7% 34,0% 28.3% 28,3% 40.0% 40,0% 36.3% 36,3% 40,4% 29,0% 30,1% 25,3% 18,8% 80,9% 80,4% 78,1% 77,8% 68,1% 67.4% 67,4% 66.7% 66,7% 66.3% 66,3% 66,0% 65,7% 64,5% 58,2% 56,3% Top-5 Most Needing Communities Komsomolsk Yasinovataya Zuevka All (at least one need) Kommunarovsk Novotoshkovskoe Komsomolsk Hygiene Products Needs Zuevka 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Kirovskoe Zugres Kommunarovsk Zuevka Krasnodon Yasinovataya Yunkommunarovsk 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Medical Supplies Needs Novotoshkovskoe There is only one community, permanently listed in the top of lacking in all of the supply categories in December – that is Yunokomunarovsk Kirovskoe Yasinovataya Debaltsevo Novotoshkovskoe 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Yunkommunarovsk Foodstuff Needs 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Awareness of Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Centre Activities Do You know, that at the moment Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Centre is providing humanitarian aid to the population of Donbas Да - 67% Yes No - 32% Нет Hard to tell – 1% Затрудняюсь ответить- 1% 17 Financial Situation qualitative component The employees of the following areas get the salaries: trade, goods and passengers transportation, cash payment services. Miners and large industrial enterprises workers – partially. Accumulated previously funds and money, sent by relatives, are used. Attending territories under control of Ukraine for pension registrations, or withdrawal money from from ATMs. There is Oschadbank working in Stanitsa Luganskaya, the queues are long. Payments on the territories under control of Ukrainian government are carried out. 18 Migration Rates 32% 27% 23% октябрь October ноябрь November декабрь December Note: December data are given without Pervomaysk, where migration rates in November exceeded 50%. Migration Plans Would you like to move from your community to the territory out of Donbas? No Нет 82% Yes,хотел I wouldбы, likeно to,не Да, but I can’t могу 15% Yes,планирую I’m going to Да, leave until summer уехать до лета 1% Yes, I’m going to leave, Да, планирую, но but неdon’t знаюknow когдаwhen Hard toсказать tell Трудно 1% 1% 20 The Work of Community Services, Medical and Educational Facilities Централизованное газоснабжение Central gas supply 1 Электричество Electricity supply 94 0 83 Больницы Hospitals 8 Городской Public транспорт transport 8 73 Междугородний транспорт 25 Inter-city transport Школы Schools Затруднились Hard to tell ответить 13 76 3 55 14 Работает обычном режиме Works asв usual 66 Иногда не работает Sometimes works 1 8 1 77 Water supply Аптеки 16 83 Водоснабжение 0 Apothecaries 31 Часто не работает Often doesn’t work 21 21 31 21 21 14 41 11 3 6 Вообще не работает Doesn’t work at all 21 Heating Availability (1) 79% of respondents are in possession of central heating and it is functional. Only among 1% of respondents central heating is non-functional. Every fifth family is not in possession of central heating, using the individual one. ¾ of individual heating consumers use gas, 13% – electricity, 12% – coal. Other kinds of heating are not spread. 3% of respondent families expressed their need in fuel (coal, wood, diesel fuel, pellets etc.). Mostly, that was the private sector residents of the communities like Zuevka, Krasnodon, Debaltsevo, Kirovskoe, Komsomolskoe. 22 Heating Availability (2) qualitative component In most of the flats and government institutions the heating is functional, though sometimes not sufficient, forcing the use of electric heaters. In residential blocks areas the critical need in fuel is not present. The need in fuel is present among the private sector residents, especially in small communities: urban-type settlement Dzerzhynsk, urban-type settlement Novotoshkivske, Stanitsa Luganskaya, Pervomaysk, Stakhanov (no CH, only individual), Avdiivka, Gorlovka, Debaltseve, Dokuchaevsk, Yenakievo, Ilovaysk, Snizhne, Yasinovataya. There is no central heating at all in Stanitsa Luganskaya (system defrosting). Unsufficient heating in schools and kindergardens in Debaltseve, Dokuchaevsk, Kirovskoe, Yasinovataya. 23 Stressful Situations across the Year Stressful situations % of references Experience bombing, shooting 80 Feeling helpless 57 Turn out to be without means of living 47 Experiencing severe illness of relatives 24 Experiencing severe illness, surgery 22 Loss of one's work, becoming forcedly unemployed 21 Loss of one's self-belief 20 Loss of belief in mankind, encounter with meanness 16 Experiencing death of relatives 12 Serious conflicts with others 5 Exposure to threats, intimidation 3 Being a victim of abuse or robbery 2 Being a victim of theft or fraud practices 2 Living in close to suicide state 1 Experiencing other stressful situations 47 There was no stressful situations 56 24 Mutual Aid (1) When You were getting into trouble and someone was able to help You, – how often have you been helped? Over the past six months almost 60% of respondent families cooperated with other community residents to help each other coping with problems. Ukraine Украина Донбасс Donbas 31 29 27 20 19 19 19 14 9 In most cases, it was foodstuff and clothing aid (54%), psychological support (27%), help in everyday matters (buying groceries, transportation, tidying up etc.) – 14%. 3% of respondents used to help with money. 5 Never Никогда Редко Rarely Время от Sometimes времени Часто Often Всегда Always Note: National-wide data were gathered during KIIS Omnibus Research (Autumn 2014) 25 Mutual Aid (2) qualitative component Clothing and foodstuff exchange (collecting centres, communities in social networks, newspaper announcements). Collecting aids for other communities. Neighbourhood and relatives help, first of all psychological and then material. Free meals (church, private cafeterias, enterprises canteens). Company initiatives (Metinvest Group Avdiivka Coke Plant, Yenakievo Bread-Baking Plant). In-home selling. 26 2015 Predictions Will the year 2015 be better or worse, than the year 2014? 46% Although the current situation is distressful, half of the Donbass residents consider the year 2015 to be better, than the outgoing one, bringing them peace and improvement of economic situation. 2015 for Donbass will be... 14% 52% Хуже Worse Лучше Better In 2015 the economic situation in Donbass ... 10% 47% Less peaceful Менее мирным More peaceful Более мирным 26% Никакого улучшения There will be no неimprovement произойдет Более или менее Will improve more наладится or less 27 Peace and Recovery Expectations The economy will improve 50.0% In the upper right corner (Group I) there are communities, in which more than 50% of residents consider 2015 to be the year of peace and economy improvement. In the lower right corner (Group II) there are communities, in which the residents hope for peace without economy improvement. And in the lower left corner (Group III) there are communities, in which the residents see the perspectives of peace and improvement with a great deal of pessimism. Lugansk Dzepzhynskyi Sverdlovsk Ilovaysk Makeevka Stakhanov Zugres Shakhtarsk Krasnodon Alchevsk Donetsk Yunokomunarovsk Khartsyz Novotoshkivske Gorlovka Zuevka Stanitsa Luganskaya Kirovskoe Snizhne Sletlodarsk II group Yasinovataya Komsomolskoe Avdiivka Dokuchaevsk Yenakievo Debaltsevo III group There will be peace 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 28 When will the conflict in Donbuss be over? What do You think, when the conflict in Donbuss will be over? It will happen in... Нескольких Couple ofмесяцев months 18% Следующего Nextгода year 22% Через 2-3 2-3 years года Через4-5 4-5years лет Затянется лет Will last боле more,чем thenна5 5years Никогда Never Не знаю I don’t know 40% of respondents think, that the conflict will be over within a year 9% 3% 3% 2% 44% 29 Long-term Perspective How will the situation in Donbuss change over the next 10 years? It is doubtful, that Donbas will be able to recover from the military conflict and will be a region with low life level 11% Hard to tell 34% One way or another, Donbas will cope with all its problems and become a region with the same life level, as in other regions of Ukraine 34% After all, Donbas will become a region of economic prosperity 21% 30 Sentiments and Expectations qualitative component In those communities, where active military operations are not held, the residents expect peace and stability. Expect the military actions to be over. Expect financial stability. 31 Main Conclusions (1) The number of people estimating the current situation as unbearabke increased over a month from 7% to 43%. Most of all the Donbass residents are afraid of artillery attacks, 53% of respondents claim that there are military actions held on their community territory. At average, the level of needs in household goods, medical supplies and foodstuff increased by 8%. The most difficult supply and general situation is still present in Stanytsia Luhanska, Pervomaysk, Stakhanov and uts Novotoshkivske. Most of the residents (82%) does not want to leave their community, 15% more want, but are not able. 32 Main Conclusions (2) Besides receiving the humanitarian aid, people cooperate to help each other – with food, clothing and psychological support. Although the current situation is distressful, half of the Donbass residents consider the year 2015 to be better, than the outgoing one, bringing them peace and improvement of economic situation, and 40% of residents think, that the conflict will be over within a year. 33 Thank You for Your attention! paniotto@kmis.kiev.ua nkh@kiis.com.ua d.pyrogova@kiis.com.ua
