!"#$%& '()*+, ,-.. 53, 2011 103 !"#"$%& !" 669.85/86+502.7 !"#$!%&"' (")'(!'&*' +!*,$)$ * $-)").$&/(".) (.,. +01234, 564789946, :.;.1., -.-. /434<8=, 564789946, :.;.1., &.-. -1>?4<0, :4@81;, ?.A846A.1., B&$CD !!"#$%&'. !"#$#%&'&!"(#$) *$"+",&-%.$$). /01%&2#3&& /" 4#2 $#')(#.*"*0 «+%"1#%5$"*0 /"4./%.$&6»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«+%"1#%5$"+" /"4./%A$$8»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anilo, Professor, Doctor of Technical Sciences, V. Solovey, Professor, Doctor of Technical Sciences, N. Vnukova, Associate Professor, Candidate of Geographical Sciences, KhNAHU Abstract. Numerous publications on the so called global warming on the Earth planet have been analysed. It is pointed out at vagueness in forecasting assessments of this phenomenon including lack of analysis in levels of changing movable balance between natural sources of hothouse atmospheric emissions and their drainage. The conclusion is being proved that present-day warming of surface air to a considerable degree is a man-made problem. Key words: global warming, greenhouse gases, combustion of fuels, energetics, motor transport, ecological indices. -<8:8128 #$%&'&'(& )*(%+,+ - '+.,/01&& -2&%0 – -/$%/3'/ '+(4/*&& -+3'+0 ( .56&2.*/3'+0 %(2/-+0 62/4*&%+ 6/ /72+'& /)253+81&9 .2&:; (<=), . )/,/2/9 >&*/-&>&.,-/ .,/*)'5*/.? $+ 6/.*&:'(& :&.0,(*&,(0. @ 1988 A/:5 @.&%(2'+0 %&,&/2/*/A(>&.)+0 /2A+'($+B(0, - .//,-&,.,-(( . 62/A2+%%/9 <<C 6/ /)253+81&9 .2&:&, ./$:+*+ D&362+-(,&*?- !"#$%& '()*+, ,-.. 53, 2011 104 .,-&''58 A25665 E).6&2,/- 6/ ($%&'&'(8 )*(%+,+ (DFG#") 6*+'&,;, )/,/2+0 6&2(/:(>&.)( 654*()5&, :/)*+:; / 45:51(7 ($%&'&'(07 «A*/4+*?'/A/» )*(%+,+ ( -/$%/3'/% -*(0'(( E,(7 ($%&'&'(9 '+ 2+$*(>';& -(:; 7/$09.,-&''/9 :&0,&*?'/.,(. @ 1992 A. - H(/-:&-I+'&92/ 4;*+ 6/:6(.+'+ H+%/>'+0 )/'-&'B(0 <<C 6/ -/62/.+% ($%&'&'(0 )*(%+,+. @ :&)+42& 1997 A. - A. 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«2&$&2-5+2+» - ./.&:'(9 (:/*(: T1–T4), T5 – :/*0, -'/.(%+0 . 62/:5),+%( .3(A+'(0 ,/6*(- %*' (%+..) @ 20:& 2+4/, [2] /,%&>+&,.0, >,/ ~ 95 % %(2/-/9 E%(..(( =<2 /.51&.,-*0&,.0 62(2/:';%( (.,/>'()+%(, ) )/,/2;% /,'/.0,.0: :;7+'(& '+$&%'/9 2+.,(,&*?'/.,( (24 %) ( 6/>-; (30 %), E%(..(0 . 6/-&27'/.,( /)&+'+ (41 %) ( -5*)+'(>&.)+0 :&0,&*?'/.,? (< 1 %). S/A:+ 52/-'( -;42/./- =<2 . 62/:5),+%( .3(A+'(0 ,/6*(- '& :/*3'; 4;*( 62&-;J+,? ~ 5 % /, .5%%+2'/9 E%(..(( =<2 - +,%/.L&25. "2/%& ,/A/, 62(2/:';9 2&$&2-5+2 /2A+'(>&.)/A/ 5A*&2/:+ - 6/-&27'/.,'/% .*/& 6/>-; (:/ 100 .%), ($ )/,/2/A/ 62/(.7/:(, E%(..(0 =<2, ./.,+-*0&, /, 2000 :/ 3000 %*2:. , [2]. K/E,/%5 52/-'( 62(2/:'/9 E%(..(( =<2 - +,%/.L&25 (T1) $+ 6&2(/: . 1970 A 6/ 2010 A. %/3'/ .>(,+,? /,'/.(,&*?'/ .,+4(*?';%( (*( :+3& 6/'(3+81(%(.0 (–UT1), -.*&:.,-(& 5%&'?J&'(0 $&*&'/9 %+..; '+ 6*+'&,&. D/A*( ,+)3& ,/*?)/ .'(3+,?.0, 6/ .2+-'&'(8 . 1970 A., 52/-'( E%(..(9 =<2 . 6/-&27'/.,( %(2/-/A/ /)&+'+ (–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t - , 580 %= 0,4 560 0,2 520 0,1 500 0 480 CCO2 t@ N "10–12 , 2,9 N , %*2: 2,8 >&*. 2,7 6,6 2,6 5,6 2,5 4,6 2,4 3,6 1970 1980 1990 2000 F/:; H(.. 3. 2/-'( ($%&'&'(0 6+2+%&,2/- ,2/6/.L&2; O&%*( ( >(.*&''/.,( '+.&*&'(0 #$ 62&:.,+-*&'';7 :+'';7 .*&:5&,, >,/ $+ 2+..%+,2(-+&%;9 6&2(/: 5-&*(>(*(.?: –1 CCO2 (,2/6.) – . 480 :/ 600 %*' (%+.); %+../-/& ./:&23+'(& =<2 - ,2/6/.L&2& $ '+ 600·109 , (. 2,4·1012 :/ 3,0·1012 ,), ,.&. '+ 25 % 6/ .2+-'&'(8 . 1970 A., >,/ - .2&:'&% ./.,+-*0*/ &3&A/:'58 62(4+-)5 ~ 15·109 , =<2; t@ V 0,6 °=, ,.&. 62/(.7/:(*/ 6/-;J&'(& «A*/4+*?'/9» ,&%6&2+,52; 62($&%'/A/ .*/0 -/$:57+ 62(%&2'/ '+ 0,1 °= 62( 2/.,& ./:&23+'(0 =<2 - ,2/6/.L&2& '+ 100 %*2:. ,. K2(2/., '+.&*&'(0 6*+'&,; ./.,+-*0* ~ 83 %*' >&*/-&) - A/:, >,/ %/A*/ 62(-/:(,? 62( &A/ :;7+'(( ) :/6/*'(,&*?'/%5 2/.,5 52/-'&9 -;42/./- =<2 - ,2/6/.L&25 ~ '+ 0,04"109 , [2], >,/ .//,-&,.,-/-+*/ ~ 2 % /, .5%%+2'/A/ A/:/-/A/ '+)/6*&'(0 =<2. @ 2+4/,+7 [4–6] 6/)+$+'/, >,/ .51&.,-5&, *('&9'+0 $+-(.(%/.,? %&3:5 5-&*(>&'(&% %+../-/A/ ./:&23+'(0 =<2 - ,2/6/.L&2& ( 2/.,/% «A*/4+*?'/9» .2&:'&A/:/-/9 ,&%6&2+,52; 62($&%'/A/ .*/0 -/$:57+. S+)(% /42+$/%, &.*( :('+%()+ 2/.,+ ./:&23+'(0 =<2 - +,%/.L&2& /.,+'&,.0 '&($%&''/9, ,/ &A/ %+..+ ) 2020 A. -/$2+.,&, 62(%&2'/ '+ 200 %*2: , (2(.. 3) ( ./.,+-(, ~ 3,2·1012 ,, 62( E,/% «A*/4+*?'+0» .2&:'&A/:/-+0 ,&%6&2+,5- !"#$%& '()*+, ,-.. 53, 2011 107 2+ 62($&%'/A/ .*/0 ,2/6/.L&2; %/3&, 6/:'0,?.0 &1& ~ '+ 0,2 °=. 2/-'( 6/,2&4*&'(0 (.)/6+&%;7 ,/6*(- ( -;42/./- =<2 - ,2/6/.L&25 . 62/:5),+%( (7 .3(A+'(0 62&:.,+-*&'; - ,+4*. 1 [8, 10]). S+4*(B+ 1 D(2/-/& 6/,2&4*&'(& ,/6*(( -;42/.; -2&:';7 -&1&.,- . 62/:5),+%( (7 .3(A+'(0 K/,2&4*&'(& K/ A/:+% ,/6*(- ( 1970A. 1980A. 1990A. 2000A. 2009A. -;42/. @@ C&L,?, %*' , '.E./A/: 1528 1800 2234 2338 3278 CO 2 , %*' ,/A/: 7123 9417 9954 11221 12089 60 65 70 80 NO X , %*' ,/A/: 46 7 SO 2 , %*' ,/A/: SW *, %*' ,/A/: 5,6 MK * (" ), ,/A/: 100 K2(2/:';9 A+$, %*' , '.E./A/: CO 2 , %*' ,/A/: 9 10 11 12 7,5 134 8,0 142 9,0 150 10 177 899 1297 1769 2176 2653 2173 3163 4312 5335 6641 24 27 29 35 NO X , %*' ,/A/: 19 SO 2 , %*' ,/A/: 0,03 0,033 0,04 0,044 0,05 SW , %*' ,/A/: .*&:; .*&:; .*&:; .*&:; .*&:; MK (" ), ,/A/: .*&:; .*&:; .*&:; .*&:; .*&:; A/*?, %*' , '.E./A/: CO 2 , %*' ,/A/: NO X , %*' ,/A/: SO 2 , %*' ,/A/: SW ($/*+), 1322 1751 1854 2095 2284 6745 7955 9825 10800 12400 28 36 40 44 52 92 108 134 147 173 6 7 9 10 12 %*' ,/A/: 5,6 7,2 8,0 8,8 10,4 MK (" ), ,/A/: =5%%+2'/& )/*(>&.,-/: S/6*(-+, 3749 4848 5857 6609 8215 %*' , '.E./A/: CO 2 , %*' ,/A/: 15141 19310 22674 25300 31130 NO X , %*' ,/A/: 93 120 132 143 167 SO 2 , %*' ,/A/: 99 117 144 158 185 19 24 SW , %*' ,/A/: 11,6 14,5 17 105,6 141,2 150 168,8 187,4 MK , ,/A/: @;42/. @@, 62(-&:&'';9 ) NO2 200 260 290 320 370 (kNO2 = 3), %*' , S&6*/-/& -/$:&9210 272 320 366 426 .,-(& '+ <=, F!3/A/:·10–9 !/*0 /, 6/.,56+81&9 ./*'&>- 0,009 0,011 0,013 0,015 0,018 '/9 E'&2A((, % * .2&:'&'';& .5%%+2';& -;42/.; ,-&2:;7 >+.,(B ( SW ) ( 4&'$(+)6(2&'+ ( MK – =20C12), 7+2+),&2($581(7 52/-'( -;42/./- )+'B&2/A&'';7 5A*&-/:/2/:/(" ); , '.E. – 41,9 F!3/, '.E. #$ 62(-&:&'';7 - ,+4*. 1 :+'';7 .*&:5&,, >,/ 52/-'( -;42/./- =<2 - ,2/6/.L&25 1970 A. ./.,+-*0*(: ~ 15 %*2: ,, + - 2009 A. ~ 31 %*2: ,, ,.&. 62+),(>&.)( '& 62&-;J+*( 1 % /, .5%%+2'/A/ %+../-/A/ '+)/6*&'(0 =<2 - ,2/6/.L&2&. K2( E,/% &3&A/:'/& :/6/*'(,&*?'/& 5-&*(>&'(& -;42/./- =<2 . 62/:5),+%( .3(A+'(0 ,/6*(- (,+4*. 1) .2&:'&% .//,-&,.,-/-+*/ ~ 0,4·109 ,, >,/ ./.,+-*0*/ %&'&& 3 % /, &3&A/:'/A/ :/6/*'(,&*?'/A/ '+)/6*&'(0 =<2 - ,2/6/.L&2&. K2( E,/% :/*0 +-,/,2+'.6/2,+ 6/ 52/-'0% -;42/./- =<2 - ,2/6/.L&25 . /,2+4/,+-J(%( A+$+%( (<F) ./.,+-*0*/ %&'&& 20 % /, -.&7 -;42/./- =<2 . 62/:5),+%( .3(A+'(0 ,/6*(-, ,.&. ~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«6/:+-*0&,.0»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–3, 7–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i &1971 + [' 5(i ) ( ' 5(1970) ], i &1971 + ,+)3& ( '1 ( ' 3 ) ' 5 ( ( ( ' 2 ) ( ( ( ' 4 ) ! 15 " 109 ,. S+)(% /42+$/% 9 A+$+ =<2 - +,%/.L&25 . 62/:5),+%( .3(A+'(0 ,/6*(- ( 6/ ,&6*/-/%5 -/$:&9.,-(8 E'&2A/.(.,&% '+ <=. K2( E,/% 52/-'( A/:/-;7 %+../-;7 -;42/./- =<2 - +,%/.L&25 62( .3(A+'(( i-7 ,/6*(- /62&:&*0*(.? 6/ .*&:581&9 L/2%5*&: M CO2 (i ) & ,CO2 ,C M S(i ) g C(i ) & 3,67 M S(i ) g C(i ) , A:& M S(i ) – 5.2&:'&''/& %+../-/& 6/,2&4*&'(& i-A/ 5A*&-/:/2/:'/A/ ,/6*(-+ - %*' ,/A/:; g C(i ) – %+../-+0 :/*0 5A*&2/:+ - i-% ,/6*(-& (:*0 5A*&9 ~ 0,6; :*0 62(2/:'/A/ A+$+ ~ 0,75; :*0 '&L,( ~ 0,84); ,C ( ,CO2 – .//,-&,.,-&''/ %/*&)5*02';& %+..; 5A*&2/:+ ( =<2. =5%%+2';& -;42/.; @@ . 62/:5),+%( .3(A+'(0 (.)/6+&%;7 ,/6*(-, 62(-&:&'';& ) NO2 . 5>&,/% .5%%+B(( ( 0-*&'(9 .('&2A($%+ ( + @@ NO2 ), /62&:&*0*(.? 6/ .*&:581&9 $+-(.(%/.,(: + @@NO2 & {(0,1 ) 0,9 , NO2 , NO ) " NOx ) ) kSO2 [K!" NO2 ]CC " " SO 2 ) k NO2 [K!" SO2 ]CC ) kSW [K!" NO2 ]CC " " SW ) k NO2 [K!" SW ]CC ) k" [K!" NO2 ]CC " " MK}, k NO2 [K!" MK ]CC A:& ,i, [K!" i ]CC – .//,-&,.,-&''/ %/*&)5*02'+0 %+..+ i-7 @@, )A/)%/*?; .2&:'&.5,/>';& 62&:&*?'/ :/65.,(%;& )/'B&',2+B(( i-7 @@ - +,%/.L&2&, %A/%3; ki – E).6&2,';& )/ELL(B(&',; +A2&..(-'/.,( i-7 @@ - 5.*/-(07 <= . 5>&,/% (7 .5%%+B(( ( 0-*&'(9 .('&2A($%+ ( k NO2 & 3 , kSO2 & 2 , kSW & 2 , k" & 5,3 [1]). 9 ( ' 2 ) ' 4 ) ! 15 "10 ( 0,4 "10 ) ( '1 ) ' 3 ) , 9 9 ,.&. ( ' 2 ) ' 4 ) * (15 "10 ( 0,4 " 10 ) '+ -&*(>('5 ( '1 ) ' 3 ) . @ ,+4*. 1 62&:.,+-*&'; ,+)3& :+'';& 6/ .5%%+2';% (5.2&:'&'';%) -;42/.+% -2&:';7 -&1&.,- (@@) ( /.'/-'/A/ 6+2'()/-/A/ =YQ ( "(,+9, )/,/2;& /,-&,.,-&''; $+ 40 % %(2/-;7 -;42/./- =<2 - +,%/.L&25, '+ 15-9 )*(%+,(>&.)/9 )/'L&2&'B(( <<C 62&:*/3(*( ) 2020 A. .'($(,? A/:/-;& -;42/.; =<2 - .-/(7 .,2+'+7 '+ 14–17 % 6/ .2+-'&'(8 . 2005 A., ,.&. (,+4*. 1) '+ UGCO2 V 30·109·0,4·0,17 V 2·109 ,/A/:. 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